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Writer's pictureStéphan

Rate cut expectations Jan vs now / Metals tech update / SPX500 and VIX, as we head into month-end, key inflation data Friday, CB speakers, OPEC+ etc



  • S&P 500 hasn't declined by 2% or more for 317 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since a 351-day stretch that lasted from Sep 2016 through Feb 2018 >>> VIX sub 12 area, not a bad timing to purchase a 'hedge' >>> The VIX's historical average is around 19.50 dating back to its 1990's inception

  • Rate cut expectations/pricing : earlier this year, markets priced in 6 Fed cuts, sic ECB cuts and 5 BoE cuts in 2024, now market pricing is 2 and a half cut by ECB and BoC, 1 and a half cut by the FED and BoE, and only half a cut by the RBA

  • USD on track to snap 4months winning streak, vs not all but majors - keep an eye on techs, what's worked in FX land is carry (low vols etc), CROSSJPY's and CROSSCHF's higher,#GBPCHF #EURCHF - good long-term break technically

  • ECB speakers: The ECB shouldn’t rule out lowering borrowing costs in both June and July, Francois Villeroy de Galhau said — pushing back against colleagues uncomfortable with consecutive cuts. Philip Lane said the full effects of the central bank’s tightening have yet to be felt

  • Shanghai lowered down payment ratios by 10% to a minimum of 20% for first-time buyers and 30% for second-home buyers

  • Saxo : Technical Update - Metals finding support and rebounding: Gold, Silver, Platinum and Copper

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said a deadly strike on a displacement camp in Gaza's Rafah was a "tragic incident" that his government is "investigating"

 






This is really good video




It is now..it's rallied 20-30pct..






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