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Writer's pictureStéphan

RNBZ cuts 25bps, more to come / FED pricing : 200bps of cuts price in by Dec 2025 / SPX500 testing 50dma+


  • U.S CPI ever so slightly softer than expected, 2.9% vs 3% expected >>> we already have over 2% of Fed cuts priced in till end of 2025!...with inflation 2.5-3.0% and real growth 2-3%...looks rather optimistic on total cuts?

  • Economic conditions in China “are like a ‘harsh winter’ that will be ‘longer, colder and more difficult to endure than we expected,’ China Baowu Steel Group Corp.chairman Hu Wangming told staff ..”

  • Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk could be a turning point in history, just like the original 1943 battle - Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former UK & NATO CBRN commander writes in The Telegraph

  • RBNZ cut 25bps to 5.25%, as broadly expected, 25bps more on each of the 3 meetings in 2024 likely, based on recent downward revisions to growth/inflation

  • QUINNIPIAC polls Pennsylvania: “.. Trump scores poorly on most key character traits including empathy, but none so glaringly as honesty, where Harris leads by a large margin.”

  • “She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed. And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.”

  • Germany to Grant Police Right to ‘Secretly’ Search Homes: Media


 




NEW Cook Political Report/BSG and GS Strategy Group poll Arizona Harris 46% Trump 42% Georgia Harris 46% Trump 46% Michigan Harris 46% Trump 44% Nevada Trump 47% Harris 42% North Carolina Harris 46% Trump 44% Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 43% Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 43%










SPX - short again?


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