FX is alive!! - December markets, classic... nice reaction to rates, both UST and JGB's yesterday, lets see after NFP, broadly speaking we've broken some big support levels in USDJPY and some / most CROSSJPY's, EURJPY moved decently but it is still probably one of the largest long out there - see below (and CHFJPY:.)
GS NFP preview: "An all around weak report and I expect the market will likely sharply extend recent moves and may even start entertaining questions such as a potential, January fed cut or whether a March cut could be 50bps" , "A negative trend in the economic data starting to form, so yes, a bad news is bad news narrative will come to the forefront over the next 1-2 months"
Weak Eurozone data has fulled a dovish ECB narrative and almost 2 rate cuts priced in April (falling orders, ind prod further down showing a carry over QoQ in Q4) >>> Goldman Sachs Sees ECB Lowering Rates By 25 bps In Each Meeting From April
US announces military air exercises in Guyana amid Venezuela tensions as Venezuela’s president orders creation of new state and map including land from Guyana
Central Banks are on pace to buy more than 1,000 tons of gold for the 2nd straight year and possibly reach the highest level purchased since 2010
Tory MP Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg’s boutique fund management house Somerset Capital is set to wind down after suffering substantial client redemptions
China’s Xi goes full Stalin with purge. In a sign of instability in Beijing’s top ranks, foreign policy and defense officials are vanishing as Xi roots out perceived enemies
Reuters reports that the United States believes Iran's Revolutionary Guards is involved in planning, executing and authorizing attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea
The 30Y mortgage rate in the US has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, moving from its highest level since 2000 (7.80%) down to 7.00%
California is likely to see a $68 billion deficit in its next fiscal year as income tax revenue plummets, according to the state’s budget adviser
Markets :
UST 10-Year Treasury Yield is fast approaching its 200D moving average - 4.02%
WTI Crude Oil has fallen/tested/testing 200dma - 69.75$ >> .. lowest since June 29 .. on pace for its seventh straight weekly loss for the first time since November 2018.”
DAX closed on all time highs 16'620
For equity markets, blackout period starts on Monday
FXLAND : would agree with RB below >>> long #EURJPY is the most crowded position in the market at mom/still, weaker EU data (dovish ECB now) and BoJ YCC move was not on the card 4-6weeks ago..bit of a capitulation day yesterday, so wait to reload..!
Nr 3. of the outrageous Saxo Predictions for 2024
Summary: The US government is forced to increase fiscal spending exponentially amid the 2024 elections to keep the economy going and avoid social unrest. Due to lingering inflation pressures and foreign investors repatriating capital, demand for US Treasuries remains sluggish, provoking a spike in US Treasury yields. In a desperate attempt to normalise borrowing costs, the US government makes income from government bonds tax-free.
Brexit impact!
Phew!
#EURJPY - right on cue for ''lack of liquidity december sell off''
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