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Writer's pictureStéphan

Saxo's outrageous predictions for 2024 / PICT / Big Tech insider selling / HSI / ECB pricing



  • ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop >>> validating market's recent moves and fwd pricing of cuts in 2024 ( some 1.25% of cuts priced in for 2024 already...they are just coming back to where markets are..)

  • The New York Fed's measure of underlying inflation (the "multivariate core trend" rate) ticked down to 2.6% in October from 2.9% in Sept, This was the lowest reading since January 2021

  • Swiss bank Banque Pictet admits hiding $5.6 billion of Americans’ money from IRS

  • UK announces rise in salary threshold for foreign workers’ visas

  • Airbus might need state backing for new aircraft programme to replace A320, chief says, might bring back competitive/trade issues vs Boeing

  • The Fed's balance sheet is back on April 2021 lows, down $1.15trn from peak in April 2022. Another $3.6trn of QT is required to unwind he massive 'covid-QE between march 2020 to 2022)

  • Moody’s cut its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds to negative, underscoring deepening global concerns about the level of debt in the world’s second largest economy

  • In 2020, BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink put the world’s largest money manager squarely behind the cause of purpose-driven investing. Three years later, BlackRock is still betting big on the transition to a lower-carbon economy, but the $9.1tn money manager’s emphasis when it talks about sustainability and social issues has changed

  • Zuckerberg and NVDA insiders selling a few shares

  • U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (in contraction) for 13 straight months, the longest down streak since 2008-09

  • Algorithms are biased. But humans are a lot more biased

  • Elon Musk: Disney is "World's biggest example of go woke, go broke"

 


Markets :

  • Big Techs, Magnificent 7, no-one will dare calling a top last week, but..

  • Chinese Stocks have fallen to their lowest prices in 5 years and India's Stock Market Valuation hit $4 Trillion for the first time in history

  • Relatively quiet Equity markets, although some weakness in Nasdaq, big 7's seen over the last 5-6 trading days, whether this is insider or tax related selling or both! it is pretty key into year-end (those big stocks have had a Huuge rally in 2023)

  • USDollar - no real direction - CROSSJPY's slightly softer following forward rates

  • 10's UST could drop to the key 4% area on a weak NFP Friday, after that one would think that a lot/enough/perhaps too much priced in for 2024 ?

 














Cost of capital has increased...







Hang Seng - just whaoo - no love there ! be opportunistic ? slowly but surely ?



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