Everyone can see political uncertainty/geopolitical risk IS on the increase, the year after after all those democratic votes.. yet markets have remained benign in terms of vol... as they expect that no 'extreme' positions will be taken by various folks in charge, from Trump to France, Germany, UKR/Russia, China and the middle east... >>> the market volatility come now in 2025 (risk), after few months of various governments trying to muddle through..without results (Germany, France, China, US..let's see now..), this with 10y UST yields up 100bps last 3months and a USDollar on multi year highs, main equity indices have 'peaked' as MAG7 showing signs of loosing momentum, recall all the various signs that underneath ''not is all well'', China 10y yields hitting all-time-lows at 1.63% and Crude is on 2months highs (with EURO weakness, if persistent, could cause a big problem for ECB cuts going forward/sticky inflation)
2025 Outlook for the Magnificent 7: ''The Easy Money Party might be over'' & the Stock Market will (have to) care / Thread below, couldn't agree more overall, and... yet...Everyone is bullish : Here are your 2025 S&P 500 forecasts Oppenheimer: 7100 Wells Fargo: 7007 Deutsche Bank: 7000 SocGen: 6750 BMO: 6700 HSBC: 6700 BofA: 6666 Barclays: 6600 RBC: 6600 Citi: 6500 Goldman: 6500 JPMorgan: 6500 Morgan Stanley: 6500 UBS: 6400 BNP Paribas: 6300 Cantor: 6000
Is anyone bullish Europe? BofA's Global Fund Manager Survey is at one of the highest US overweights vs. Europe since they started asking the question a quarter century ago
The term premium for 10-year Treasuries has increased 75 basis points (bps) over the past three months, see chart below. In other words, 10-year rates have increased an additional 75 bps more than what can be justified by changing Fed expectations, which is likely a reflection of emerging fears in markets about US fiscal sustainability
China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC) on Thursday added 28 U.S. entities to the country's export control list to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations, including non-proliferation commitments
Tesla failed to meet its EV sales goals and Wall Street's expectations
The US deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to average 6.3% over the next 10 years. This comes after the deficit reached 6.7% in 2024, the largest since 2021, totally unsustainable.. #USD #duration #longend #UST
US credit card serious delinquency rates for subprime borrowers just hit ~22%, the highest since 2010. Meanwhile, delinquency rates on commercial office loans are now at 11%, ABOVE the 2012 peak, reality is this looks like a #debtcrisis
FYI - this is useful for investors - Trade inspiration & market insights | Saxo Bank
The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is concerning: The US deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to average 6.3% over the next 10 years. This comes after the deficit reached 6.7% in 2024, the largest since 2021. Such elevated deficits have never happened outside of wars and significant economic crises. https://t.co/oUhAZ9N5JL" / X
The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is absolutely insane: Heading into 2025, there are now 100 TIMES more assets in leveraged long funds than leveraged short funds. Over the last 8 weeks, this ratio has DOUBLED, exceeding the record high set in December 2021. Is the bull trade too crowded? (a thread)" / X if you are a contrarian!...you'll like this
Bank of Japan owns ~80% of the country's ETFs and 7% of the entire Japanese stock market, according to Morningstar and the Tokyo Stock Exchange data. Moreover, the BoJ holds ~55% of the Japanese government bonds.. Huge distortion...this is not normal, but then again not particularly new news...this is what 'they' do
The Banker No One Saw Coming ...working with him, we knew back in the day that he was specially good! well done Sir! #JuliusBaer
More competition, more affordable wines out there..
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