"China overtook Germany in auto exports in 2022 and is set to eclipse Japan as the world’s biggest car exporter this year." >>> happened within 2-3years, so swift !
Goldman Sachs joins Barclays in bet against Fed cuts this year
GS on SLOOS: "the details are slightly worse (e.g., in the CRE and multifamily residential categories) than the headline C&I tightening measure suggests. Uncertainty remains high regarding the timing of tightening in the current environment."
Fed Goolsbee ''credit tightening is under way and recession is a possibility''
BoJ's Ueda ''if price target is met in sustainable, stable manner, BoJ will end YCC & shrink its balance-sheet''
U.S banks : as long as banks don't pay interest rates on deposits (main banks still 10-20bps only..) when MM Funds are 4.5%, CD's 5% and UST say 3%, then record outflows likely to continue..biggest risk for banks (who don't pay a reasonable interest rate) is when consumer figure they can easily move money around.. to MM funds and so on...
SBB : One of Sweden’s biggest commercial landlords plans to halt payment of its dividend after suffering a ratings cut, in another sign the funding squeeze gripping Sweden’s leveraged property sector is worsening
Texas may launch its own Gold-backed Digital Currency
Charlie Munger: ''I don't think having a bunch of bankers trying to get rich 'leads to great things''
Australia's 30 biggest pension funds increased their investments in key coal, oil and gas producers by 50% in 2022 despite the funds' long-term commitments to net zero carbon emissions, environmental activist group Market Forces said
ECB rate increases may not be finished in July, Kazaks warns (he's a known hawk)
Yellen says again Treasury will run out of cash by June 1
Saudi Arabia’s $500 billion bet to build a futuristic city in the desert
"The EU is reported to be considering sanctions against seven companies from China—something the US has already done but the EU has not. This may damage relations as sanctions are likely to be seen as offsetting photo ops with French President Macron" - UBS
Markets :
SPX500 same olde levels.. 4150-4200 tops vs 4050 area where all the moving averages are, Relative performance of the Russell 2000 (small caps) vs the S&P 500 since February. Hovering around Covid lows. SEE PICT's point about liquidities below, key ! >>> overall, risk reward for higher isn't great, valuations too high
UST curves, some 70bps of cuts priced in 2023, this madness, or 200+ bps of cuts priced by early 2025
USD slightly firmer, Fed speakers today (Williams and Jefferson), U.S CPI tom
“…if rate cuts happen this year, it will either be because of the onset of a recession or a significant crisis in financial markets. The gap between the bond market, equity market and the Fed is likely to close at the expense of equities” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic
"the equity market continues to expect the best of both worlds—rate cuts and durable growth. We view the likelihood of both of those outcomes playing out in concert this year as low... equities are priced for an optimistic and lower probability outcome" Morgan Stanley's Wilson
KKR posts 26% drop in Q1 earnings, beating expectations (msn.com) - was always going to be a casualty from moving away from zero rates..
Charlie Munger: I don't think having a bunch of bankers trying to get rich 'leads to great things' - YouTube these 2 legends are so great, charismatic
Fair enough, risk reward not huge unless you are a FI manager
Japan will end yield curve control if stable 2% inflation reached, BOJ's Ueda says - MarketWatch still pretty vague, but there you go - our view remain that this will 'have' to happen sooner rather than later, particularly if Mr Market joins BARX and GS and start to think of not cut in 2023 from Fed
Swedish home construction is likely to plummet in the wake of falling housing prices, Nordea Bank says in a report
GBPCHF needs 1.15+ for anyone to get 'particularly' exited on topside - patience!
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