top of page

Small banks vs megabanks, RTY vs Megacaps / FRC / Crude, commods lower again / BoJ tom



  • Markets all about small vs megabanks, small cap (RTY underperformance) vs FAANGS, megacaps >>> The market cap of the largest 10 stocks relative to S&P 500 is at a 96%ile (!) relative to history. Last quarter’s performance was led by the narrowest leadership ever in an up market

  • The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades is reaching its finale. This is our definitive guide to global central banks as we enter another round of crucial meetings over the next few weeks/ING recap below and MS is more about peaking, not cutting

  • The rescue of Credit Suisse was not the second time a major bank was saved – nor was that of UBS the first. Back in the Great Depression, the Swiss government was compelled to save Schweizerische Volksbank (SVB...) from collapse – and that time, it had the backing of a parliamentary resolution

  • A troubling economic trend as the shipments of boxes plunge downward -- to below 2009 lows/Thread

  • Singapore announces new property cooling measures, additional buyer's stamp duty doubled to 60% for foreigners

  • The House of Representatives has narrowly approved a Republican plan to raise the debt ceiling in a legislative victory for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy that will do little to break the stalemate with the White House

  • US bank regulators are weighing the prospect of downgrading their private assessments of First Republic Bank — a move that may curb access to Fed's lending facilities

  • Antitrust regulators in the UK blocked Microsoft's takeover of Activision. Microsoft plans to appeal the decision and remains "fully committed" to acquiring the popular video game company

  • The ECB balance sheet is shrinking again. Total assets dropped €16.7bn in the past week on ECB QT. ECB balance sheet now at €7,714.2bn, equal to 58% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 33%, SNB's 113%, BoJ's 131%/Holger

  • Microsoft mentioned AI **50 times** on its earnings call --JPM

 
Markets :
  • Many have asked.. to be clear, we are not in the camp of a U.S default (CDS markets exploding higher etc), it surely can't happen! but a technical default (politics, delay) is not impossible, and clearly if we go to the wire (most likely scenario), the markets will continue to worry (USD, Gold etc)

  • SPX500 put a top in around 4150, steady though, NQ holding as big mega caps report a beat, but HUGE divergences, it's ALL ABOUT small and big banks, RTY (underperformance) and megacaps etcetc

  • USD stays defensive, slightly oversold short-term, nothing dramatic though

  • Crude lower again, Gold/crude spread

 


well worth a read - good in depth research















39 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page