No dividend as SNB loss wipes out distribution reserve.This was chiefly due to a loss on foreign currency positions of around CHF131bn, the central bank announced >>> essentially their balance-sheet is hihgly correlated to FAANG+..
Reminder: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is speaking today >> markets are pricing 40bps of cuts towards year-end again (from 30bps 1week ago), ahead of U.S CPI on Thursday given topics (see below) seems unlikely he says much about future intentions
NatGas in Europe - pretty good news - see link below
Fed's Bostic: Would be fair to say Fed is ‘willing to overshoot’ (the news that topped SPX yesterday), ''favors Holding Rates Above 5% for ‘a Long Time’'
Fed's Daly still sticks to her terminal rate exp mentioned at Dec FOMC meeting. However, her tone is a little more dovish relative to previous interview in mid-Dec, she appears to lean toward 25bps at the upcoming FOMC meeting while she said that both were on the table >>> markets agree, markets pricing 80% probability of 25bps at next meeting
1-Year U.S inflation swap down to 2% ! Chart/thread
#META has reportedly rescinded fulltime offers in London
Japanese CPI less fresh food and energy, super core CPI 2.7%, highest since a long time ago...and yet YCC at 50bps...."Tokyo CPI Ticks Up Despite Weak Consumption Demand"
China : An article in Health Times, a publication managed by People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, quoted several officials as saying infections have been declining in the capital Beijing and several Chinese provinces.China’s state-run CCTV says Beijing has passed its Covid infection peak, citing the city’s acting mayor
China wraps up two-year tech crackdown, top official says. Alibaba, Tencent, Didi and Meituan can expect normalized supervision
Macron's government will present his plan to overhaul France’s pension system today, likely triggering mass strikes and protests that may further undermine an economy already at risk of falling into recession
‘World’s Best Restaurant’ Noma Is Closing in 2024...Chef René Redzepi now says the fine dining model on which he built an empire of 20 years is “unsustainable”, inflation changed/changes everything..
Markets :
SPX500 stalls near first resistance levels 3'980/4'020, ahead of much bigger levels 4100/50 area, ahead of Powell today and U.S CPI tomorrow, broadly range 3800/4000 SPX for now, much more going on within sectors and single stock picking #qualitybalancesheet
USD has weakened quite sharply since (chart below) we talked about 'peak inflation, peak usd and peak worries' 2months ago. Markets convinced FED will cut towards year-end (40bps priced in now again), beware a snap back in these January markets and low liquidiites
UST30y 3.66, helping mortgage rates come back so not so horrid levels
Crude stable near lows still
Bostic and Co talking higher for longer, big picture we agree with this, even though U.S CPI will print lower tomorrow, as expected.. risk has done well last few weeks on lower NatGas prices in Europe, China reopening and general short covering in Equity markets (lower vols), it will get tougher from here to rally broadly
Overall re-opening at pace continues
UK space launch: Historic Cornwall rocket launch ends in failure - BBC News when nothing is going your way..
December sales bounce due to price rises not shopping sprees - BBC News inflation helps inflate the numbers, reality is different
if rates stay high(er) for longer, most probably..
EURUSD in perspective >> near 10pct move since 0.95-0.9700 lows inSep/Oct, when we focused on #peakusdollar and peak inflation - also coincided with massive BoJ interventions near 150JPY, which remember, everyone downplayed at the time..
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