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Softer U.S PPI, $ softer, Gold, ETH and risk up / AI.. / U.S debt ceiling, CDS / VIX 15months lows..



  • Saxo Bank has received a BBB rating with a positive outlook from S&P Global Ratings, according to the bank’s first-ever rating report

  • FT-We must slow down the race to God-like AI - ''I’ve invested in more than 50 artificial intelligence start-ups. What I’ve seen worries me'' - well worth a read. Criminals will harness ChatGPT to unleash a new wave of online fraud, Britain's biggest listed cybersecurity company has warned

  • Hiking to bring down inflation is not a policy mistake, that's the Fed's mandate. The real mistake was to believe.. that ZIRP, NIRP, QE infinite and buying billions of mortgage bonds in a housing bubble & increasing money supply by some nearly 50% in 2 years, would have no negative consequences eventually

  • U.S inflation on Wed was slightly softer, that's the good news, the not so good news is it's stabilizing on higher ground, yesterday's PPI was down 0.5% in March (falling most since pandemic..) and Jobless claims come in 4,000 higher than expected at 239K vs a forecast of 235K. The prior reading was 228K (a sign of light stress in markets, probably) >>> be careful with averages though, Atlanta's like for like median wage tracker is still pretty high, no pivot in sight unless there is some sort of crash in the economy (rate expectations moved massively last 6 weeks from a small June hike to cuts in Sep, -75bps in cut for 2023 and -150 going forward...this looks a little much? - chart available if you wish)

  • The IMF sees rates back near zero when inflation gets under control. BlackRock’s Larry Fink disagrees, thinks inflation isn’t falling much below 4% anytime soon due to lost productivity. “A big reason productivity has fallen: remote working does not work.”

  • Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance. Leftist president lends his voice to Beijing’s efforts to boost renminbi’s role in global commerce

  • The case for a strategic allocation to gold

  • WSJ / ‘Net Zero’ Will Mean a Mining Boom. But political instability will make it difficult to obtain all the minerals electric cars will need

  • Swiss inflation comes in at 2.9% YoY, but as usual depends on how you weigh components, see Thread below

  • US debt ceiling impasse pushes price of insuring against default to 11-year high

 

Markets :
  • Softer U.S data, rates expectation pushing USDollar down further through key long-term support of 1.1030+ EURUSD, Cable 1.2500+, USDCHF below 0.8950/.90000 etc

  • ETH rises to $2100, GOLD approaching ATH's, Silver trying (needs 27+ for the big bulls..), XPT picking up a little bit of steam too

  • Equity markets love a bit of cooling inflation , lower USDollar and lower vols (eq and bonds), earnings report next, with banks starting the show today

  • The #VIX ended the day at 17.75, lowest close in 15 months (so beware of an unexpected scenario from here, vols are cheap, now is time to buy a hedge, if you need one!)

 

Excellent-great news



these kind of calls don't mean much in reality...pure political shenanigans.. but there you go, there are quite a few of them around these days



"I don't really understand it. I think it's an incredible technological advance in terms of what we can do," says Warren Buffett on artificial intelligence. "It scares me in terms of the possibility of it. I think this is extraordinary but I don't know if it's beneficial."

me open minded, but can see the flaws this could bring..





It's everywhere a similar picture






GBPUSD - just for a long-term view - while USD rates expectations remains bearish (cuts), USDollar can stay weak, 1.30 CABLE not all that crazy at all in short-ish term




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