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Writer's pictureStéphan
Apr 44 min read

SPR miss! / UST 30y YTD high 4.55% / Swiss infl lower, CHF weaker / Copper, crude, commods, precious metals ⬆️ / NFP up next tom


  • #GOLD put simply, imho, central banks are/have been increasing their allocation to physical #XAU and reducing their allocation to #UST (allocation that may increase still but wont be reduced/changed for many years to come) >>> nobody can freeze the physical gold you have at home (sanctions won't work..), short-term overbought now but who will dare shorting it ?

  • Powell is desperately trying to justify a cut, putting aside any other macro reasoning, there is no specific economic reason for his views (can't hike as there is FAR too much debt..hiking would send markets into turmoil, and he is afraid the markets are beginning to notice !)... >>> The market is interpreting that the Fed is willing to accommodate higher inflation as it cuts rates, the markets wants to hear dovish speeches, ignore the rest

  • #EURCHF #CHF weaker overall to continue - Swiss inflation much lower again, to 1.0% in March. The consensus was expecting a rebound to 1.3% driven by electricity and rents

  • Fed governor Adriana Kugler's dovish comments that the #Fed is still on track to cut rates this year, despite clear evidence that #inflation is accelerating, (Powell thinking..)

  • Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability, Dallas FED thinks differently..

  • The U.S Department of Energy has canceled its latest tender for crude oil for the replenishment of the strategic petroleum reserve after oil prices moved higher than the DoE is comfortable with >>> what were they thinking when crude was $70 for months...!

  • Japan is ready to intervene in the currency market at any time should the yen weaken beyond its current range, given the extent of heightened warnings from key officials, according to the nation’s former currency chief >>> how ready?..

  • McKinsey will pay some of its employees to not work for nine months and look for another job - read that again

  • Australia watchdog is pushing to flush out funds’ greenwashing, Vanguard misled green bond fund investors..was all clear to see years ago, just a marketing craze it was

  • ‘Lavender’: The AI machine directing Israel’s bombing spree in Gaza

  • JPMorgan cuts its price target on Tesla stock, now sees 32% downside, after delivery miss highlights growth concerns. Amazon cuts hundreds of jobs in cloud computing unit. APPL explores Robots as next big thing, after car project got nowhere..

  • Billionaire Steve Cohen said he expects that more businesses will move to a four-day work week, one of the reasons he’s made investments in golf

  • GS is very bullish copper. They see it at $12k/t by 2025, a +50% upside from current levels. "Decarbonisation, EV & solar demand, AI driven electrification and power demand surge are driving more demand for copper in a tight supply backdrop"

  • The Stock Market is in a bubble and the AI craze is getting out of hand warns SocGen

 


 As for central banks, in some cases at least, demand for physical gold is driven by a hunger for assets that are not at risk of Western sanctions or the mercy of custodial arrangements that Western governments can control.



Ex-finance official who warned of Japan's 2022 yen intervention sounds alarm - The Japan Times >>> got to walk the walk, if you really mean it, otherwise Mr Market won't care a bit, worse will challenge you BoJ








Intel and many others too lately





Boomers had 70s inflation/20% mortgage rates

Gen X had dot-com/GFC lost decade

Millennials had the terrible post-GFC labor market

Gen Z has expensive housing & expensive financing

Every generation goes thru something


Copper up and away


EURCHF - up and away - GBPCHF, USDCHF etc


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