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SVB Financial, KBW bank ETF's, BOND-TY short.. / SPX500 <50, 200dma / Kuroda out / NFP next



  • SVB crisis sends jitters through start-up world

  • UK : HS2 construction to be delayed in bid to cut costs - other countries might have to take similar moves too (slow things down, good for softer inflation!)

  • The US has "successfully blocked or frozen more than $58 billion worth of sanctioned Russians’ assets": US Dept of Treasury

  • 0DTE options : An explosion in trading in a type of equity derivative security in recent months has prompted Wall Street players and a major clearing house to examine the potential risks it poses, according to two sources familiar with the matter >>> best have a little look at it before there is a down day of 10% ( or up) - leverage kills eventually..

  • FT - 'Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management has earned more than $300mn in fees on its flagship exchange traded fund since its inception nine years ago, while wiping out almost $10bn of investors' cash in the same period.'

  • China’s Xi Wins Unanimous Votes For Third Term As President..

  • Credit Suisse postponed publication of its annual report after a last-minute call from the SEC about its earlier financial statements. It is not currently clear when last year's report will be released instead

  • Macron and Sunak seek to overcome years of Franco-British feuding

  • Mexico Inflation Undershoots Forecasts, Giving Banxico Space (better news,like Australia, Canada and China this week..)

 
Markets :
  • SPX is now below both the 50 and the 200 day moving average, as well as trading below the short term trend line that has been in place since October lows. A close below the 3950 level and this could get much more dynamic to the downside, have a look at where we are in the bank ETF KBW below - long-term perspective ( I would add that is is very much a stock picking market, same on way down, some banks more at risk, many others, that are perfectly fine..)

  • USDollar not really higher on this risk-off move last few days (mind..it's not lower either..all about NFP next, after slightly weaker/higher Claims yesterday, BoJ unch, all about the new guys in Q2 2023 to possibly change YCC etc..

  • HIGHER rates kills leverage eventually, this is where risk and issue pops up, long duration assets, ARKK and the likes, some banks like SVB (not all banks), housing (some REIT's, commercial mainly, where borrowing and leverage is used, not all REIT's..), and so on

  • IF, this becomes a CREDIT risk (as it would eventually..with curve inversion, overtightening etc), then CHF, JPY, GOLD...will do well, and so will bonds, particularly with the HUGE short in TY out there, biggest short since 2018..

 

Good thread


Better news too there, like Canada, Australia, China, all softer inflation data lately, the battle is not won yet, but we are getting there!


The last BIG dovish Central Banker has now retired



Boris Johnson criticised for making millions while rarely appearing in Commons | Boris Johnson | The Guardian good for him, as we always said, he only ever cared about himself, no-one else, not other MP's, not folks, not the party, not the country, just himself


Economy ‘bounces back’ in another signal a recession is off table (cityam.com) >>> The post-Brexit agreement between the UK and the EU on Northern Ireland is a "really good deal overall," according to the Irish finance minister




pretty terrible!




That's a come back ! I might dig my old ones out now..


KWB banks-financial ETF - This is where we are long-term



SVB trading down to around 80 in overnight trade





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