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Writer's pictureStéphan
Nov 74 min read

Trump landslide confirmed / German coalition collapses / Iran / BoE & FED meeting today to deliver 25bps cut


  • Riksbank cut 50bps down to 2.75%, Norges hold, BoE next and FED later on, both of which likely to deliver the already priced in 25bps cut, might as well.. >>> following by hawkish statement & on hold for as while, most likely, presser will be key, as the UK, China, the US and others continue to spend spend and pump their economies #duration risk still

  • Was all pretty clear early on yesterday... Confirmation : Trump wins landslide, The Triple Crown most likely (senate, popular vote and house....with perhaps as much as 312 electoral votes!!!! and 72mio votes vs 67m for Kamala...) >>> TrumpTrade (USD, BTC, TSLA, crypto higher, Russell etc, UST long-end much weaker, and VIX vols collapsed more than 20% (largest move in decade), perfect storm higher for risk in general (welcome) but USTs went down to an even bigger extent (in monetary terms), DAX suffered on local politics, while Trumps threat of much higher tariffs on China result in yet further stimulus overnight.. (and eventually if the US pushes too far, CHINA will devalue the Yuan, which would really piss Trump off..)


  • Trump promised massive tax cuts, no cuts to entitlements, defence spending, lower mortgage and cc rates "immediately", educed deficits and inflation "on day 1", and mass exit of illegal migrants... All of those promises will obviously not be kept entirely, but in trying to do go in that direction, the biggest sacrifice will be soaring debt and inflation, he will keep at it, its all about making deals and financials results for him and his big tech friends, and clearly he has total control

  • Uncertainty looms for Germany after Scholz fires finance minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner, coalition collapses (cannot be worse with Scholz out of the way?), looks like Jörg Kukies in the frame >>> #EURCHF forming a long-term base around 0.9250-9400 area, see chart

  • FT - The Democrats threw away a winnable election. Harris was the wrong candidate, and the consequences could be global

  • Goldman Sachs discusses the climb in yields of longer-dated US Treasuries amid rising US fiscal debt.  While high fiscal debt does push up bond yields, Goldman Sachs highlights the development of demand-side factors, such as the rise in private sector savings, including the rise in corporate cash, which lift demand for US Treasuries

  • CHINA tells banks to cut interbank deposit rates to boost growth

  • Australia plans social media ban for under-16s

  • Trump is Eyeing Iran Hawk Brian Hook as First Foreign Policy Pick, see below


 

BlondeMoney Helen Thomas spot on again, totally nailed the prediction on the electoral college vote, can only recommend






Its already mostly done...



They all want their "financial" share, interest for their own good...All trump is about is financial rewards, deal, the daily news is all bluster! but it works with most countries..


SAXO

Significant Yield Surge: Long-duration Treasury yields, especially the 30-year and 10-year, are rising sharply in response to expectations of inflationary policies under Trump, such as tax cuts and increased spending. This has created a pronounced steepening in the yield curve.

  • Technical Resistance and Market Implications: The 10-year yield is approaching key resistance at 4.47%. A break above this level could lead to further selling in Treasuries and continued upward pressure on yields.

  • Supply Pressure from Auctions: A supply-heavy auction schedule, including $25 billion in 30-year bonds, is adding pressure. Typically, rising yields attract investors, but election-related uncertainty may limit demand, potentially worsening the sell-off.

  • Fed’s Influence and Bear Steepening Risk: Ahead of the FOMC meeting, traders are cautious about the Fed’s response to rising yields. If the Fed cuts rates without addressing long-term yield rises, a “bear steepening” effect could emerge, with long-term yields climbing despite short-term rate cuts


Is this not a little too late ?..




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