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Writer's pictureStéphan

Trump premium #USTs vs Crude prices / China mulls yet more stimulus / Magacaps earnings up next



  • China mulls approving fresh fiscal package worth over ¥10 trillion next week (more liquidity), metals, crypto, eq.. >>> as mentioned before ''China will continue to ''pump'' for as long as it takes to bring back the economy to where they want it to be''... #duration #longend risk together with..

  • 10y UST up (Trump Trade) vs Crude much lower yesterday again>> the kind of disconnect that tends not to last for long (then again this time may be different!), so far, confirmation bonds been all about U.S elections & the TrumpTrade (which could also obviously unwind at least partly if/when Harris wins)..what happens to yields if TrumpTrade is worth 45% GDP with 3-4% inflation, long-end could end up a 7%+

  • Mega caps earnings up next, VIX at highest levels since early Sep

  • The IMF raises Spanish growth to 2.9% for 2024 compared to the meager eurozone

  • U.S election update : polls broadly speaking a sweep is 50/50, a very different outcome to gridlock, betting polls about 50/50 Trump vs Harris, huge factor will be turnout

  • Biden finalizes curbs on US investing in China chip, AI tech

  • Last 5 years, the US National Debt has increased by 56%, moving from $22.9 trillion up to $35.8 trillion

  • #EURUSD : markets beginning to refocus on EURO downside, last time EURO went through parity in 2022 it was about monetary policy, this time it 'may' be about policy and the timid reaction with Ukraine, and the eventual consequences for Europe's growth model #Germany

  • Volkswagen plans major layoffs, to shut at least three German plants, works council head says


 






'Rest is politics' and podcast like these keep me busy walking the dog










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