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Writer's pictureStéphan

Trump:tariffs all the way / SPX500 key dma's, vols RISING / U.S debt ceiling drama / BlackRock on #BTC supply

  • US government shutdown looms after House rejects Donald Trump-backed funding bill. Musk Draws First Blood With Spending Bill Bombshell. Billionaire leads rebellion against bill aimed at keeping government funded through March, President Musk?


  • SPX500, 50dma broke below on Thursday (5950), 100dma is around 5775 and the 200dma, which has not been tested since October 2023 is around 5575, keep an eye on this and equivalent is these 'corrective-liquidation risk' times, let's just say the bulls binged on 'momo fun', there might be a slight hangover in these markets, so be careful out there (with the usual lack of liquidities, if/when they are really needed, increase in vols etc, note that we have 'quadruple witching expiries today' >>> HIGHER VOLS = reduce risk exposures..and watch out for key tech levels now, its all that matters, don't own what the whole market owns..feels a little like Dec 2018

  • Markets now expecting '1 and a little bit' FED cut in 2025, expectations were for 4+ FED cuts back in September

  • UST 10y yields are up 100 bps over the same period that the FOMC has cut by 100 bps

  • China 1y bond yields 1%

  • 'Tariffs all the way': Trump says European Union must buy U.S. oil and gas in trade ultimatum

  • El Salvador has received a $3.5 billion financing package from the IMF. The agreement? Ditch Bitcoin. Reverse having Bitcoin as legal tender and delete their Chivo Bitcoin wallet

  • From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows

  • Japan's government 'alarmed' by recent forex moves, top officials say

  • Bitcoin supply may not be fixed at 21M, says BlackRock

  • Not only does Apollo see less rate cuts in 2025, but they are now calling for potential rate HIKES

 


Well, do something about it :-) - and hike in Jan




And a decent UST 2y auctions coming up next week, good timing!




Will be a busy man!







BTC chart






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