US government shutdown looms after House rejects Donald Trump-backed funding bill. Musk Draws First Blood With Spending Bill Bombshell. Billionaire leads rebellion against bill aimed at keeping government funded through March, President Musk?
SPX500, 50dma broke below on Thursday (5950), 100dma is around 5775 and the 200dma, which has not been tested since October 2023 is around 5575, keep an eye on this and equivalent is these 'corrective-liquidation risk' times, let's just say the bulls binged on 'momo fun', there might be a slight hangover in these markets, so be careful out there (with the usual lack of liquidities, if/when they are really needed, increase in vols etc, note that we have 'quadruple witching expiries today' >>> HIGHER VOLS = reduce risk exposures..and watch out for key tech levels now, its all that matters, don't own what the whole market owns..feels a little like Dec 2018
Markets now expecting '1 and a little bit' FED cut in 2025, expectations were for 4+ FED cuts back in September
UST 10y yields are up 100 bps over the same period that the FOMC has cut by 100 bps
China 1y bond yields 1%
'Tariffs all the way': Trump says European Union must buy U.S. oil and gas in trade ultimatum
El Salvador has received a $3.5 billion financing package from the IMF. The agreement? Ditch Bitcoin. Reverse having Bitcoin as legal tender and delete their Chivo Bitcoin wallet
From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows
Japan's government 'alarmed' by recent forex moves, top officials say
Bitcoin supply may not be fixed at 21M, says BlackRock
Not only does Apollo see less rate cuts in 2025, but they are now calling for potential rate HIKES
Well, do something about it :-) - and hike in Jan
Reminder that it will do little to deficit... !! Michael Pettis on X: "This makes little practical sense. Using tariffs to force trade partners to buy more US oil and gas will have no effect on the overall US trade deficit, regardless of the impact on bilateral deficits, and will actually undermine US manufacturing. Trade imbalances must be" / X
Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "Yesterday was far from a “normal” Fed Day: Wednesday saw the largest surge in 10-year yields on a Fed Day since 2013 and the biggest drop in the S&P index for over 30 years. It has led to heated discussions among analysts as to the “why” and the “so what.” I am currently working https://t.co/76D0fWeih6" / X
And a decent UST 2y auctions coming up next week, good timing!
Will be a busy man!
Steve Rosenberg on X: "I asked Vladimir Putin: “25 years ago Yeltsin handed you power & told you 'Take care of Russia.’ Do you think you have? In light of significant losses in Ukraine, Ukrainian troops in Kursk region, sanctions, inflation…” Here’s his reply. Producer @LizaShuvalova @BenTavener https://t.co/60G9ncVZiy" / X
BTC chart
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