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Dec 16, 20224 min read

#TSLA / ECB : super hawkish / #SPX500 <3920, #APPL, #DAX <14K, risk under clear pressure / OPEX day



  • ECB - pretty much as hawkish as one could be, pretty grim new forecasts and rates guidance, might not be a shock for markets to price more hikes in Q2 2023..ECB says expects to raise rates "significantly further" because inflation far too high. ECB: Inflation seen at 6.3% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025...very hawkish revisions, this could be pretty ugly period for EZ bonds, BTP's etc..They failed all year to react early!!! and now they are stepping up (when the economy is clearly slowing), it's easy for them at the ECB, they have ZERO #accountability - the whole lot of them are going to damage life for folks

  • Additionally, The ECB to continue to be flexible in its PEPP reinvestment (as needed) and added that QT will begin in March at a "measured, predictable pace", with the average monthly decline in bonds will amount to 15 billion euros until the end of the second quarter, more than one-third of ECB officials wanted to hike by 75 bps

  • FRANKFURT, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Inflation in Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, is likely to be higher than earlier thought while economic growth will be weaker with a recession next year now certain, the Bundesbank said on Friday in a biannual update of its economic forecasts >>> HUGE message, the north is back in charge of monetary policy, rates are heading up, peripheral markets beware

  • Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said Wednesday that former President Trump is “absolutely guilty” of a crime surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

  • "The growth slowdown is not yet priced, and that's what's going to determine the winners," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says on inflation and his outlook for 2023

  • SEC charges 8 influencers in $100 million 'pump-and-dump' scheme

  • -New York will ban the sale of dogs, cats and rabbits in pet stores starting in 2024 - WSJ

  • EU leaders grant Bosnia EU candidate status

  • TSLA : when the CEO sells a chunk of shares on 2y lows, market cap has halved last 12months >>> "There's a New Sheriff in town": Twitter nukes dozens of Liberals from platform

  • As Kuroda bows out, Bank of Japan's rising hawks eye end to unloved yield cap

  • -Phili Fed: ”In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 (!!) estimated”.. wow

  • Pacifist Japan unveils unprecedented $320 bln military build-up

  • UK vs French private debt to GDP - who would have thought France was 284% vs UK 187% - charts below

  • German 10y real yields (10y yields - 10y inflation expectations) have turned positive again after y'days hawkish ECB pivot

 
Markets :

  • DJ had its worst day in 3 months, fell more than 700 points as recession fears growing following weak data in the US and China + more importantly a ''shockingly hawkish ECB clearly did not help'', this after a hawkish Fed/higher terminal rate etc

  • OPEX day, some $4trn maturing today, should be fairly quiet till the final hour!

  • EURO rallies on super hawkish Lagarde, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURUSD and EURCHF fairly steady to slightly higher only. USDollar higher vs risk currencies on risk-off move in equity markets. GBP weaker, BoE was not hawkish at all with inflation above 10%..

  • SPX500 breaking down through 3920 area of support, which has help for over1month, QQQ, #APPL and DAX similar negative picture/momentum, bunker down, let's hope I'm wrong but this looks a little eminiscent of December 2018!!...the BIG difference is that there is 2trn of cash sitting around in RRP.. Investors are 24.3% Bullish to 44.6% Bearish, per the AAII Sentiment Surve

  • Crude a little softer together with rest of markets

 










Only 8 ? what about Elon pumping Dogecoin and al ?..


Elon Musk sold shares worth $3.6 billion of Tesla. Shares of his electric-vehicle company, the world’s most valuable carmaker, has halved this year, underperforming both automakers and the broader tech-heavy Nasdaq Thomas Thornton on Twitter: "Both of these charts should work lower https://t.co/l0szSeI5Uf" / Twitter

Twitter bans some journalists who cover Elon Musk - BBC News >>>> Muks in only in it for Musk..doesn't care about anyone else..




Everyone asking about APPL, our thoughts are here : Apple vs. Microsoft? Outperforming fund manager says there's a clear winner (cnbc.com) #APPL increased debt along the way for their sharebuybacks... the key is net equity!









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