Biden’s whirlwind Israel trip fails to calm fears of wider Middle East conflict, and no spending will pass, till this happens... Jim Jordan to keep up flailing bid for US House speaker in third round of voting
Fed's Williams: Fed needs restrictive monetary policy for a while to cool inflation
Tesla's price cuts eat into Cybertruck maker's profits as net income plunges 44% in the 3rd quarter. Tesla has reported that its net income slumped in the third quarter versus a year earlier >> Elon Musk warns on high rates as well as questioning the factory in Mexico (and he always fails to mention BYD competition- and others..)
U.S mortgage demand falls to the lowest level since 1995 as interest rates near 8% >>> interest rates matter, Europe’s leveraged loan sales are headed for the worst year since 2010, as the global rise in interest rates takes a toll
Australia's employment data (softer) : full-time jobs decreased 39K while part timejobs increased by 47K
Bank Indonesia has raised its interest-rate by 0.25% to 6%
Roche earnings down (currency headwinds, similar for Nestle, SMI down 2% YTD (down 15% las year)... if it's not higher interest rates hurting it is the strength of the currency
Japan calls on Saudi Arabia, others to boost oil output to stabilise prices >> It isn’t unusual, but it doesn’t happen often either. Japan has **publicly** called on Saudi Arabia and other oil producing nations to lift output to stabilise prices >> more about JPY weakness! which makes OIL in local terms monster expensive..
The 10-Yr Treasury bond is down 5% this year, on pace for its 3rd consecutive annual decline. With data going back 100years, this has basically never happened before (-4.3% in 2021,-17.5% in 2022)...
Surveillance: New Markets Math Upends Responses to ‘Fog of War’. Treasuries’ haven status is under pressure as new supply overwhelms investors/BBG ...(term premia..)
Markets :
TSLA, U.S airlines lower (''UA sour outlook for Q4''), Netflix beats (everyone stays at home/goes on netflix and cuts elsewhere..).., Nestle & Roche (CHF strength), EURO50stoxx at pretty critical tech levels, SPX got room towards 4200, we are entering a pretty critical phase, markets being bullish on hope of Fed pause, recent US data remains pretty strong putting Dec or Jan Fed in play
UST10's4.97%, 30's 5.05%...TLT falling apart again and is on track for its lowest close in more than 16 years and is approaching the lowest levels since inception in 2002, that's some destruction of wealth YTD, SUPPLY !! >>> we are slowly getting into the tough period, risk premia : how far?...will bring great opportunities
Equity markets : there is no doubt this is very damaging to consumers and specifically rates sensitive sectors (lots priced in already, but), as for the company share price with no E they will continue to struggle (ARKK related and thematic names, sounds like a great prospect, but investors will struggle to hold on to them, you need solid balance-sheet, low debt, decent dividends etc...this is where we invest for our clients
Crude still pretty well behaved high 80's
Nothing passes till there is a House speaker
EUROstocxx50
Comments