Sep 18, 20234 min read

TSMC to delay deliveries / UAW strikes / FOMC & many more CB meetings this week

FOMC, PBOC will also set 1 to 5 y rates on Wed, on Thursday we have BoE, SNB, Norway, Sweden and Turkey CB meetings, and BoJ on Friday >>> market pricing in a 50% chance of a Fed hike this year and 3 cuts in 2024, which is the key for long-term sentiment
Goldman on interest rate cuts in 2024: "We see cuts as optional because our analysis suggests that most of the impact of higher interest rates is behind us, meaning that the economy does not need cuts to avoid recession"
Taiwan's TSMC has told its major suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment, as the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand, two sources familiar with the matter said
FT-Companies ease off on share buybacks as rising interest rates push up costs. Growing pressure to invest and regional banking turmoil also deterred companies from purchasing their own shares
WSJ-The U.S. Lost 4.1 Million Days of Work Last Month to Strikes. Even before the UAW walkout, the number of days lost to work stoppages had risen to its highest level in more than two decades, American workers are striking at a pace not seen in nearly a quarter-century >>> big shift in bargaining power back to labor >>> Sanders: "Serious discussions" should take place on four-day workwee
Keir Starmer vows to seek rewrite of Brexit deal – but rules out rejoining single market, UK Housing Prices falling at the fastest rate in 14 years (good news for would be buyers!)
US and China officials meet in Malta ahead of possible Biden-Xi summit. Yicai reports "dire" fiscal conditions among cash-strapped local governments, and discusses some of the things they are doing to raise revenue, including selling off assets to deal with difficulties from a shortfall in income
Australia miners BHP, Fortescue race to curb iron ore dependence
China's military hierarchy under spotlight after defence minister disappears
The U.S Tech sector is currently trading around 25x forward earnings, up from 20 at the end of 2022 and an average of about 18 over the last 10+ years
ECB's Kazimir: May need peak rates for `Winter, Spring, Summer' - Premature to place bets on first rate cuts, he hopes we've seen last hike
"China is the single biggest energy trader, buying 20-26% of global coal, crude oil and liquified natural gas"
Funflation' is here to stay as live events fuel economy: Bank of America

Markets :

Equity markets closed off their highs on Friday, U.S strikes looming too + TSMC delays >> NVDA through key levels, Adobe, AMZN, MSFT all gave up a decent 3-4% ground, it's been nearly 100days without SPX selling off more than 1.5% >>>>inflation has come down, as fast as expected, but the U.S strikes now could slow growth in the U.S, clear risk to some sort of Q4 slowdown >>> AAPL below 50 and 100dma ($174-175 area) - it matters for overall sentiment
China's CSI hit lowest level YTD (property sector worries still)
USD has had a strong 9 week run, rarely goes on for much longer, for whichever reason
Bonds still not finding much love
Overall, Oil up, bonds lower with a slight steepening in there, Fed's Clarida was hawkish still, probably 1more hike for choice and further steepness on worrying fiscal stance