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Writer's pictureStéphan

U.S budget / FED's 2% target still sacrosanct? / BoJ appears split for next week's meeting / Russia losses / XPT / JPY vs NIKKEI / all about U.S CPI later on today



  • The Fed’s 2% inflation target is a source of growing liberal discontent. Jay Powell is staying hyper-focused on a numeric goal that originated 36 years ago in New Zealand — despite pushback from Democrats. U.S CPI day, big focus on rents as usual, which will split views!

  • Budget : The White House expects the US economy to cool markedly in 2024 and inflation to remain stubbornly, if modestly, above the Federal Reserve’s target, debt to get up to $45 trn within 10years..

  • BoJ next week going to be a close call !

  • Russia sacks naval commander after humiliating Black Sea losses. Putin fired Nikolai Evmenov and replaces him with commander of Northern Fleet following setbacks

  • UBS forecasts headline Japanese wage adjustment of +4.3% in the upcoming Shunto, the annual spring wage negotiations.  Though this is not enough to sustain 2% inflation, UBS thinks that the BOJ is likely to end negative interest rates if Shunto wage growth just accelerates from last year

  • GOLDMAN: “.. goods imports from China .. accounted for 11% of total US imports in 2023. The collapse in China’s producer prices has already driven the cost of these imports down by 3%, potentially contributing to disinflation in the US.”

  • XPT : Automotive demand for platinum expected to hit seven-year high this year

  • VIX on 16% = +/- 1pct move in SPX

  • Markets : JPY and NIKKEI reacted a little, all about JGB's going to what looks like a pretty split BoJ next week. Eq markets, lots going on within Mag 7, laggers came back a bit last few days, Trump on #Meta had an impact on the day, U.S CPI up next, ''faites vos jeux, rien de va plus''

 





Yahoo Finance on X: "Everybody thinks the Fed should cut, but we don't, BMO Capital Markets investment strategist @briangbelski tells Yahoo Finance: https://t.co/P18J9uaf04" / X (twitter.com) as discussed with some of you during last few weeks, this is the risk for 2024, that rate cuts get pushed out towards 2025, and 3-4cuts already priced in anyway








Yups!


XAGUSD - one of the most amazing perhaps boring chart, beware of boring, one day it wakes up - inflation week can create vol - if GOLD continue you'd think Silver could have a decent catch up at some point - $25.50 or so + on a decent weekly/monthly close is what the bulls are looking for

DAX - even the bulls would/should welcome a correction, stretched momentum levels etc


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