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Writer's pictureStéphan

U.S claims <233k / Carry trade, more details / Trump wants to run the FED! debate with Harris set for 10th Sep / UKR pushing / Musk ? / U.S CPI key next week now




  • Markets have their best day since Nov 2022, so no rate cuts needed anymore ?

  • Price action : maybe, maybe some green shoots of hope for the bulls...JPM's Andrew Tyler writes: "...if we use the MOC as a proxy, we saw consecutive days of more than $7bn decline to $2.5bn. Obviously, there is more to market structure than this, but it may mean the magnitude is decreasing", though worth noting VIX no lower (yet anyway) on a nearly 150 handle rally on SPX yesterday (just a tech bounce from oversold?),  VIX near 24 level... implies a 1.5% daily SPX move

  • Harris and Trump agree on 10th Sep debate on ABC

  • ''I could run the Federal Reserve better, claims Donald Trump'' good grief, just imagine this scenario

  • Pro-Kyiv forces stormed into Russia's southwestern Kursk region on Tuesday morning, deploying around 1,000 troops and more than two dozen armoured vehicles and tanks, according to the Russian army

  • US and other frustrated mediators call on Israel, Hamas to resume Gaza talks, saying, 'no excuses'

  • UBS estimates the cumulative dollar-yen carry trade size at about $500bn and that about $200bn of those positions had been ditched over the past few weeks and According to Deutsche Bank, the Yen carry trade amounts to a whopping $20 trillion, or 505% of Japanese GDP based on Japan’s government balance sheet assets and liabilities mix.

  • US weekly jobless claims came in at 233,000, down from a revised 250,000 -- a relief after last week's unemployment and growth scare, so no more rate cuts..

  • Elon Musk accused Twitter’s leadership of tipping the scales politically. But now he’s doing just that with X, he has created his own little personal political playground.. and it didn't take : Elon Musk shares fake news about England rioters being sent to Falklands - unacceptable

  • Ugly 30y UST auction, the worst since November '23, tailing WI by 3.1bp at 4.314%

  • U.S. Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time High of $1.14 Trillion

  • Michael Pettis / Will Technology Differentiate China Today from Japan in the 1990s?

    Ignoring the problems of its historical precedents won’t make China’s success any more likely



What could possibly go wrong here..






Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts (ft.com) Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts. Resurgent Japanese currency forces speculators to shut down years’ worth of bets that could run into billions of dollars

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