The US military said it shot down 14 drones over the Red Sea launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The world's largest container line is diverting ships away from the Red Sea
Not suggesting market should....but there you go : When does the market go 'ex-shelter' ??..market always goes ex energy, ex food.. etc. >>> Excluding Shelter, US consumer prices rose 1.4% over the last year, the 6th consecutive month below 2%.
A huge week that was : U.S services were pretty good, while EU PMI in big trouble still, US retail sales holding up very well, China IP finally surprised to the topside (and PBOC added HUGE liquidity - $132bn - last time they did this stocks rallied huge) and the market played a full FED pivot on FOMC, adding more cuts in 2024, near 150bps all priced in by now, ECB similar, BoE slightly less >>>> we now have BoJ tomorrow (will they won't they, our plan was always they would-will but in Q1 2024, then we get BoK and BoC minutes
On friday afternoon, FED's Bostic and Williams pushed back a little on rate cuts expectations for 2024
The Takeaways From Zelensky's Latest Trip to Washington and UKR/EU promises
Financial markets had their best Fed day since 2009, everything rallied, interest sensitive (REIT's etc), most shorted/hated index (ARKK) and small caps rallied most, last few weeks have been a nightmare for leverage and some HF's
Pfizer most likely overpays $43 billion on small Cancer Drug Company that barely makes $2 billion a year
Goldman has raised year-end 2024 S&P 500 index target from 4700 to 5100, representing 8% upside from the current level. Decelerating inflation and Fed easing will keep real yields low and support a P/E multiple >19x. Since late October, real rates plummeted from 2.5% to 1.7%. Our prior year-end 2024 forecast assumed yields of 2.3% and a P/E of 18x. Upside risk exists to our above-consensus EPS estimate of 5% growth
Yardeni : "The vigilantes will be back," said in an interview. "This is not an issue that will go away unless it's fixed. If anything, the deficit outlook is probably worse than is being anticipated."
Ex-PBOC Adviser Says China Needs to Cut US Treasury Holdings - Securities Times >>> An orderly reduction in China’s holdings of US Treasuries is “necessary,” given the low coupon rates and expected rapid increase of US’s net debt abroad, former PBOC adviser Yu Yongding said at a Sunday event in China
The US added another $2.6 trillion of debt between June 2023 and December 2023. $31.4 trillion to $34 trillion now
Companies domiciled in Switzerland and Liechtenstein continued to repatriate billions from their subsidiaries abroad in 2022 #CHF
Mind - boggling fact : Combined weighting of Magnificent Seven in MSCI All Country World Index is > all stocks from Japan, France, China, & UK
Markets :
Russell goes from worst to best within 8weeks, yet still 40% of companies in this index have negative earning
30-Year Mortgage Rate plummets to lowest level in 9 months
The Mag 7 stocks are trading on a forward P/E of 33x, rest of SPX trades on 21x
SPX500, DJ, QQQ pretty much all of them in overbougtht territories, not hard to see, many comments out there 'most stocks above their 200dma's' or RSI above 70+, signs that retail traders are all in etc >>> all this means is don't be greedy of what ever is owned ! still a lot of room for VALUE and quality dividend stocks to push on higher !
Most shorted/hated GS index had its best week ever, another HF long-short nightmare
USD relatively quiet really, BoJ up next for some guidance, most likely doing nothing this time round (we expect them to tweak in Q1 2024, but by now this may be only a mini tweak..), USD lost some grouinds clearly after FOMC and more cuts priced in but nothing too dramatic >>> HF turned positions around quite aggressively last week and actually turned net short USD..humm..
Crude WTI found some love below/around $70 >>> markets got themselves too short commods ?
#GDX, #SILJ should all be pretty interesting into 2024, quite aLOT 'bullish' technical flags out there, nothing much confirmed yet though, waiting patiently!
Ole S Hansen on X: "COT on #commodities saw continued capitulation selling ahead of FOMC when the BCOM lost 3.2%. The net long collapsing by 46% to a three-year low at 274k. Net short positions held in nine led by #natgas, #palladium, #corn and #wheat while longs are concentrated in #crudeoil,… https://t.co/nVeoBa9GOe" / X (twitter.com)
Markets gone too short commods ?
Ex-FBI Intel Chief Who 'Investigated' Trump-Russia Collusion Gets 4 Years In Prison For Colluding With Russia | ZeroHedge you just couldn't make this up !
Been in trouble ever sinc eafter COVID...seems a little desperado
god damn lies, but why in the first place was the British government allowing 'their friends' to go and get these deals done at pretty much any price...
Not sot fast!
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