The TFSE 100 turns 40 today, there was the FT 30 and the Stock exchange 100.. >>> after the huge rally since early Nov 2023, watch the QQQ possible reversal, bonds leading the charge (and USD long stretched..)
Fed's Barkin is the 1st speaker in 2024 and FOMC minutes to focus on tonight
BBG-"China injected nearly $50 billion worth of low-cost funds into policy-oriented banks last month, suggesting the central bank may be ramping up financing for housing and infrastructure projects to support the economy."
Europe’s top securities regulator warns on risks from leveraged trades. Esma’s Verena Ross says efforts to monitor and curb bets that use borrowed money need to go further
US reaches deal to extend military presence at Qatar base
The Incredibly Ballooning US Govt Debt Spikes by $1trn in about 3months to $34trn, or $12 trn higher than 5years ago...Interest payments threatening to eat up 50% of tax receipts...Congress ?
"The fourth quarter has seen factories reduce employment at a pace not seen since 2009 barring only the early pandemic lockdown months" - PMI/US
US was top LNG exporter in 2023 as hit record levels
Markets :
FX positioning : as bonds and risk rallied (QQQ lead), market increased its 'short usd' positioning into year-end >>> price action yesterday pretty clear, soonest rates/bonds moves higher, UST's clear lead as usual
Already some headlines of 'worst start to the year since xx' for bonds and equity
VIX had an average of about 16 in 2023 - least volatile year for US equity since 2019
Beware 'January reversals' particularly when previous Q4 was so driven by FOMO and year-end (forced) rebalancing
The accidental icon: The fascinating history of how the FTSE 100 was created 40 years ago today (msn.com)
Outrageous Predictions 2024 Geneva | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) and Outrageous Predictions 2024 Zurich | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) >>> please let me know if you'd like to join - thanks
Robin Brooks on X: "Markets are focused on how Germany is the "sick man of Europe," but recent Euro zone weakness is actually concentrated in France (top right) and Italy (bottom left). That's where manufacturing (blue) and services (red) sentiment are tumbling. Sickness in Europe is broad-based... https://t.co/4yx4X2Q0jq" / X (twitter.com)
Barchart on X: "Wild Stat: 92.5% of stocks are owned by the Wealthiest 10% of Americans. This is an all-time high equity ownership concentration. https://t.co/w0ef7KQz9E" / X (twitter.com)
Good stuff there : The Outlook 2024: Stronger For Longer (unlimitedfunds.com)
''''So while it looks like stronger for longer is mostly likely to dominate, the our advice is to stay flexible. If ‘24 is anything like ‘23, it’s going to be another volatile time for generating alpha.''' yups! I'll go for that - few very interesting point and charts there
Here are your SPX500 year-end forecast from major players!
Morgan Stanley 4'500
JPM 4'200
BoA 5'000
Deutsche Bank 5'100
Oppenheimer 5'200
Citi 5'100
Cantor 4'400
Wells 4'600
BMO 5'100
GS 5'100
SocGen 4'750
Barcx 4'800
UBS 4'850
Brazil's economy improves during President Lula's first year back, but a political divide remains (qz.com)
NASDAQ - been on a pretty crazy move since November - reversing - all about bonds and USD - bonds lead
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