top of page
Jan 16, 20234 min read

U.S debt ceiling limit Thursday / Kuroda in Davos on Wed / SPX500 cluster of resistance 4000/4080



  • The BoJ meeting is the biggest macro event this week/month.. JGB's could have a proper tantrum like in 2013 and hit 1% yields in the 10y area. BoJ spent about -75bn$ in last 2-34 sessions buying JGB's, JPY has recovered about half of what was lost since March 2020 (USDJPY has done a lot of damage already though...YCC change is coming ! only question is when.!) - Japan December PPI +0.5% m/m (expected +0.3%) and +10.2% y/y (expected +9.5%)

  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved by 4.9pp to 64.6 in early January from 59.7 in December

  • EV price war shaping up in 2023 - if you wanted an EV car, you might want to wait a bit

  • UK/EU...There are growing indications that the EU and UK could, later today, set out an agreed framework on resolving the most contentious issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol; diplomats have stressed that there is still an enormous amount of technical work to be done before an overall agreement is reached

  • JPMorgan Chase on Thursday shut down the website for a college financial aid platform it bought for $175 million after alleging the company’s founder created nearly 4 million fake customer accounts

  • Fitch: ECB Guidance, Core Inflation Point To Higher Terminal Rate

  • With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become/Thread and by pretty much ANY survey, it is the most anticipated recession in history..

  • FED's net interest costs increased to $102.4bn in 2022, up from just $5.7bn in 2021

  • U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress

  • Bitcoin has jumped out of January’s starting gates with a climb of more than 25%

  • BRL : largest real rates levels across the globe - see Thread below

  • Markets are pricing 200bps of cuts from Fed by the end of 2024 >>> basically that would be same levels as ECB - this looks nuts !!? and because of this, markets have embraced '#Goldilocks,' with investors assuming that a soft landing means positive #earnings growth

 
Markets :

  • VIX had the lowest weekly close in over a year

  • USDJPY has done a lot of work already ahead of BoJ, dragging all USD pairs lower, beware a little from here on USD shorts, in fact TP on some or most, reassess on Wed/Thursday

  • HSI now looks better on a 12-month perf chart than the S&P500 - pretty wild - was so oversold in Sep/Oct, when USD peaked too, inflation peaked etc

  • SPX is closing in on big levels. Zoom in and you see the 200 day moving average as well as the negative trend line. The entire 4000-4080 area is basically a big resistance area / see below chart

 



this guy btw is good to follow for BoJ stuff..


Home / Twitter nice recap 'Global Central Bank Update'' --South Korea hiked rates for the 10th time, 25 bps increase to 3.50%. Brazil real CB rate +8%.. wild - great opportunity ?





Whatever happened to due diligence..?



Support for leaving EU has fallen significantly across bloc since Brexit | European Union | The Guardian God damn lies (irrelevant whether one likes or dislike EU)... what happened to that Red Bus and 350mio a week stuff ? and the execution was simply horrific, in fact nothing much has actually got better !


Johnson had cousin act as ‘guarantor for an £800,000 credit facility’ while PM, reports | Evening Standard A spokesman for Boris Johnson said all the former Conservative leader’s finances ‘are and were properly declared’



Have a great start to the week

Team PVM


GBPCHF - constructive - if ever those talks between EU/UK became good !









55 views0 comments

Comments

bottom of page