July! must be the start of the TdF, have a great start to H2 2023!
US PCE deflator drops to 3.8% y/y as expected while the core drops a little more than expected to 4.6%, inflation cooling, as expected >>> FED expectations jumped higher for 2023, 2 hikes on the cards now
UK Crypto, Stablecoin Laws Approved by Parliament's Upper House
U.S. Supreme Court blocks President Biden's plan to cancel $430 billion in student loan debt Fiscal impulse cancelled, for now anyway
France imposed partial ban on internet
Higher interest encourage savings and/or deleveraging, perhaps both, eventually
Media mentions of "artificial intelligence" just dropped off a cliff in last few weeks
PIMCO says it's bracing for a 'harder landing' for the global economy, warning investors are too hopeful about interest-rate cuts
Supreme Court blocking student-debt forgiveness will ‘devastate’ borrowers. No, it would ‘punish’ poor Americans. Who’s right?
Turkey State banks 'resumed' intervention to support TRY, spending about $1 bln intervening Monday >>> USDTRY now 26+
Markets :
1year UST yield is now higher than S&P 500 earnings yield >>> not since 2000
The BIG JPM collar (sources) for this quarter now is ''short the 4670call on SPX, and long put spread 4215 vs 3560'', after a YTD rally of nearly 16%
NQ best 1st half ever, up 30%, while China got hammered, what a divergence! particularly vs S&P7's ! AAPL closed on 3trn market cap - just whaoo
U.S rates back up, after quarter-end bond rally, even EU rates higher with relative ease, that's after weak EU PMI last week >>> lots of issuance coming in H2, ongoing QT etc won't make it easy for bonds (and risk eventually), HYG etc in H2 2023
USD mixed, CROSSJPY's remain the name of the game with risk and yields higher!
Crude WTI held/back above 70$ - Andurand HF story below below (assuming other HF did similar, may well be part of the story of Q2 prices lower..) and Saudis/Russia announced an extension of oil export curbs
STELLAR year for stocks....remember how negative 95% of economist were at the start of the year ?.. we stick to our valuation model when investing for our clients, iit works very well, guessing market sentiment in short-term, quarter by quarter, is Very difficult, the 'market' and CNBC keep trying.. it's fun to watch
Data for week coming up :
MONDAY July 3rd: Swiss CPI (Jun), EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
TUE: July 4th RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, South Korean CPI (Jun), German Trade Balance (May)
WED: July 5th FOMC Minutes, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Jun), EZ/UK/US Services & Composite PMI Final (Jun), US Durable Goods R (May)
THU: July 6th NBP Announcement, Australian Trade Balance (May), EZ Retail Sales (May), US ADP National Employment (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jun) Opec Seminar
FRI July 7th : German Industrial Output (May), US Jobs Report (Jun), Canadian Jobs Report (Jun)
certainly pretty much all analysts..
at 3trn market cap!
have a great start to the week, month, Q3 and H2 2023 !
Team PVM
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