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Writer's pictureStéphan

U.S PPI softer / BoJ unch, all about JGB's / Shaky German coalition, budget stand off / UKR 10y security agreement / Macron's risky gamble / #EURUSD #EURGBP risk down




  • Market will focus on France's national debt and its deficits now..with Germany not far behind >>> given FED on hold, one would think EURO, #EURUSD will find a few reasons to move down over next few weeks/months (chart below), or have a decent move down if the 'far right' gets in (5-10pct move would not be unconceivable if France really goes to extreme left or right..>>> EURUSD sub 1.0500 would be the beginning of possibly a huge long-term change #EURGBP already breaking down. France's s Left Unites to Challenge Macron, Le Pen for Power, Macron's party looks in real danger to be wiped out....Just as we start the EURO in Germany

  • Budget stand-off pushes German coalition to brink. Ministers trying to reconcile stances on how to plug a massive financing gap that some estimate at up to €40bn

  • The BOJ : could, from next meeting, reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be held on July 30 and 31 >>> JPY weaker again, USDJPY heading for the highs again, and they will have to intervene again... or else, presser ongoing

  • U.S PPI for final demand falls 0.2% in May; goods decrease 0.8%, services unchanged

  • Jobless claims jumped to 242K, the highest since August 2023

  • Oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel in 2025 as world faces 'substantial surplus,' Citi says

  • Ukraine-Russia war: Putin to deliver speech after US and Ukraine agree major 10-year security agreement - and Russia suffers 'astronomical' losses

  • UK General election 2024 live: Farage claims Tories ‘about to implode’ as Reform overtakes party in poll

  • For anyone worrying about +/- 25bps >>> Powell: "If you look back in five or ten years and try to pull out the significant to the U.S. economy of one 25-basis-point cut, you have quite a job on your hands." >>> Powell importantly noted that there are base effects for later this year that will work against inflation progress

  • New cycle high for S&P 500 Tech sector's fwd P/E, which is now at 30+, the highest levels since 2002 (got to 40 in the crazy 2000-01 days)

 





Long-term consequences ? So G7 announced a $50B loan to Ukraine, 2mos ago US approved $61B to Ukraine, the goal is to make it Trump proof.















Old but still a good watch




EURUSD - break sub 1.07-1.0600 area could well start a new trend lower, sub 1.05 and many euro longs will throw in the towel


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