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Sep 19, 20234 min read

UAW union, Friday deadline / Big Techs, BoAFMS / UST 2y 5.06% ahead of FOMC



  • The UAW union said that it will announce further strikes at GM, Ford and Stellantis plants if serious progress isn't made by Friday, Ford’s Canada workers threaten to join US union on strike (once it starts..) >>> “In the last four years, the price of vehicles went up 30%. Our wages went up 6%, The CEOs got 40%. There were billions of dollars in shareholder dividends. So our wages aren’t the problem,” Fain

  • U.S : 81% of full-time workers want a 4-day work week – and they’re willing to make sacrifices to get it

  • The World is struggling to make enough Diesel / BBG

  • Greece is making a killing selling ships to Russia. The world’s largest ship-owning nation is profiting from the sale of aging vessels, while enabling Moscow’s sanctions evasion

  • The US Housing Market Index moved back below 50 in September, indicating a sharp decline in homebuilder confidence. Rising mortgage rates have crushed affordability and consumer demand. 32% of builders reported cutting home prices in September, up from 25% in August

  • German 30y bond yields at 2.84%, highest levels since 2011, markets slowly adjusting to 'high-er-for-longer' in long-term inflation expectations

  • German banker with links to Scholz charged in €280mn tax fraud. Co-owner of private bank MM Warburg is on trial for his part in the cum-ex dividend scandal

  • ECB policymakers want to soon start discussing how to tackle the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks, with raising reserve requirements a possible first move, six sources told Reuters

  • RBA warns on Chinese economic contagion, soaring petrol prices. A spillover from China’s weak economy and surging petrol prices pose significant challenge to taming inflation, the RBA has cautioned

  • The U.S. is actively looking for ways to blunt one of China’s best tools of influence: international loans

  • Big tech is now the most crowded trade in the latest Global Fund Manager Survey by BofA - Huawei’s chip breakthrough poses new threat to Apple in China — and questions for Washington

  • FOMC - most likely scenario is Fed on hold and leave tightening 'in play-data dependent, inflation etc'' - imho

 

Markets :

  • ARM up 25% on day 1, down 10% last couple of days (Berstein to underperform), NVDA (the one everybody chased) down through key supports, AAPL 175$ key area, S&P 500 lost the 50D moving average on Friday and today it lost the 20D, The Ratio of US Small Caps to US Large Caps is at its lowest level since January 2001 etc etc, lots of noise but the NASDAQ been flat for 3months

  • WTI & Brent continue to sit comfortably above the US$90 levels, Iran now exports at least 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, more than three times as much as it did in 2019, corn closed at lowest price since December 2020, but olive oil prices exploded to a record high and now, cocoa prices are nearing a 44-year high, and sugar prices have risen to a 12-year high...strewth!

  • Key FX Tech levels - see Saxo's update below

  • UST 2y 5.06% - highest in 17years >>> Fed’s June 2024 meeting hit a new high for this cycle at 5.18%, crude , sticky inflation, ''high-er for longer''

 



Getting there, but long way long way to go (does not mean rates go higher, but steeper is very well possible IMHO, if not likely, as fiscal worries will persist!...)

















link.cnbc.com/public/32746232 The data is clear: private equity returns have come largely through multiple expansion in recent years, rather than from revenue and margin growth," Bain





Finally !






Bonne journée

Team PVM











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