top of page

Ueda confirmed / Swiss CPI / Belarus / Balloongate / NZ cyclone / China savings / U.S CPI next



  • Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government nominated Kazuo Ueda to helm the Bank of Japan on Tuesday in a move likely to pave the way for a gradual paring back of the central bank’s full-bore stimulus. The next Bank of Japan governor's first task will be to tweak monetary policy without wrecking the economy, upending markets or crippling the BOJ’s balance sheet. And that’s just the start of a long to-do list

  • Switzerland January CPI +3.3% vs +2.9% y/y expected, published yesterday, again some inflation data that remains pretty sticky!

  • Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak thinks ChatGPT is 'pretty impressive,' but warned it can make 'horrible mistakes', don't trust it blindly !

  • UAE energy minister: Oil market is balanced. No need for extraordinary OPEC+ meeting

  • China’s Savings Conundrum by Zhang Jun: The increase in China's savings largely reflects economic uncertainty, rather than pent-up demand - important if true and Top US and China diplomats Antony Blinken and Wang Yi weigh first meeting since balloon row, good that they meet

  • US balloons illegally flew over China more than 10 times since the beginning of 2022, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin >>> #balloongate

  • Oz : Major companies say it is getting harder to push through higher prices, amid a plunge in consumer confidence and warnings from NAB that interest rates will need to rise to 4.1 per cent to tackle inflation

  • How Citigroup Helped Lift the Lid on Trafigura’s Nickel Nightmare

  • Belarus : various countries asking their embassy to leave

  • Russia-Ukraine war live: Nato defence ministers to meet in Brussels, Bakhmut under heavy fire

 


Markets :
  • Ahead of U.S CPI and retail sales tomorrow, Mr Markets has 2x 25bps and a little bit more priced in up to July, a Terminal rate around 5.25% by July, and at least 1x 25bps cut byyear-end (more cuts in 2024), the cuts is where the market disagree with Fed

  • The mid-1990s were the ultimate ''higher for longer''.. scenario fed raised rates from 3 to 6% in 1994-95 (brutal bond market collapse in '94, MXN, MYR deval etc etc), then the Fed kept rates at an elevated 5 to 6%% level for over 3years..

  • SPX500 4150 area resistance again, fair to say 'many' market participants surprised of these market strength in recent days/weeks

  • USD, let's see price action post U.S CPI, we pointed out recently 1,0750 EURUSD and 132.50+ USDJPY as key levels for further momentum one way or another, higher yields should continue to favour higher CROSSJPY's, CHF remains strong with higher inflation print earlier this week

 

Summary: US equity markets snapped back higher yesterday after having toyed below pivotal levels in the case of the S&P 500. Investors are likely hoping for a benign US January CPI print today that will keep rising US Treasury yields from spoiling the outlook for equities on hopes that peak Fed tightening has already been priced, with about two and a half 25-bp hikes priced for the next four Fed meetings.




How Citigroup Helped Lift the Lid on Trafigura’s Nickel Nightmare (yahoo.com) >>> the effect of higher rates !! are yet to be really seen or felt in many places (that's the type of risk and issues that can and will pop out - rate hikes slowly working through the system)








Michelle Donelanm, the new secretary of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, said she is prepared to snub the EU’s £88.6bn flagship research scheme and create an alliance with the United States, Japan and Switzerland

Good News! The most timely estimate of UK payrolled employees for January 2023 shows another monthly increase, up 102,000 on the revised December 2022 figures, to 30.0 million.





S&P500



have a great day

Team PVM

46 views0 comments

Comentarios


bottom of page