China GDP: IMF urges ‘comprehensive reforms’ to bring economy back in line with growth potential-Without reforms, China’s growth could drop to about 4 per cent on average over the next five years and 3 per cent on average between 2028-37, according to the IMF
Approximately 130 people were arrested or are the target of arrest warrants issued by Turkish officials for their involvement in alleged faulty and illegal construction methods
U.S. military brings down flying object over Lake Huron
The Bank of Japan's expected next governor Kazuo Ueda likely won't rush to overhaul ultra-loose policy and will instead let economic data guide the exit timing, said Tetsuya Inoue, who was Ueda's staff secretary when he was a central bank board member >>> at least not until Kuroda is actually out of the door in April..
Israel : Coalition signals some readiness to weigh Herzog judicial proposal, will delay votes
Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said on Friday the surprisingly strong jobs data reported last week did not alter his view that moving to smaller interest rate rises was a good strategy for the central bank, as he flagged the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 should inflation continue to ease
Downside convexity could become an issue. GS program trading desk writes: "Inflecting CTA flow could translate to an approx. 20% sell off in US equities over a month in a down tape scenario"
Germany's Olaf Scholz suffers loss at Berlin election
SPX500 : Investors paying up to protect themselves in case stock mkt sinks: Contracts protecting against 10% decline in S&P 500 ETF in next 30d cost 1.7 times more than options that profit from 10% rally, BBG reports / Risk appetite for protection high
Coming week : we have key U.S CPI data tomorrow, 0.1% difference won't change anything but will get Algo's going, as usual. UK Inflation on Wednesday, and more earnings
SEC Chief Gensler warns Crypto firms to comply with Rules after Kraken shutters US Staking Program
Rishi Sunak has ordered senior officials to draw up plans for strengthening Britain's relationship with the EU
Iranian President to Visit China This Week on Xi’s Invite
Markets :
Fighting inflation by rising rates will prove to be a tough task with debt to GDP near or above 100% of GDP >> "the fastest rate cycle in decades will not end with a whimper"
JPY >>> should weaken again under Ueda, from what's been said or not said about him - chart below
UST yields grinding higher, U.S CPI tomorrow key, do we really see that 'slowdown' that is priced in already..! or do we suddenly worry about 6% terminal rate type scenario ?
USD mixed to slightly firmer again, with a hint of CROSSJPY buying (higher yields)
Crude steady, not really reacting much to Russia's cut announcement (higher risk of slow growth ahead?). Copper softer too, taking a breather after the 'China reopening' stories gathered pace last 2-3months
Alien invasion !
SEC Chief Gensler Warns Crypto Firms to Comply With Rules After Kraken Shutters US Staking Program (yahoo.com) >>> The regulator has asserted that many tokens and crypto products are really just securities that trade on the blockchain and should be registered with the agency. Gensler took particular issue with how crypto exchanges often play multiple roles. He suggested their business models can create significant conflicts of interest. “We don’t let the New York Stock Exchange also run a hedge fund and trade on the exchange.” he said. “Why would we do it here?” >>> where ever you want to operate in the world, do it within the rules, if not, then it remains in the shadow world..
USDJPY 132+ in short-term an 135+ medium term and we could be off to the races again with a combination of higher US yields and Ueda..
Have a great start to the week
Team PVM
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