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Mar 30, 20235 min read

UK:CPTPP / Musk & Wozniak on A.I. / NRW, DE and Spanish inflation lower / CS! / MAGMA flows




  • Spain Inflation halves but , core pressures highlight ECB Bind. Consumer prices rose 3.1% from year ago in March; est. 3.7%.Europe’s natural gas costs have sunk back below pre-war levels >>> energy helping clearly, finally, but still, NRW, Germany soft-lower as well, seals a softer EU CPI later on

  • FT-How wild was Treasury trading this month? some great chart in their article, as we said, never been wilder!

  • Credit Suisse whistle blowers say Swiss bank has been helping wealthy Americans dodge U.S. taxes for years, AND...see below...the CS board were planning to award themselves a transformation share award a the AGM, I mean seriously...!

  • Britain secures agreement to join Indo-Pacific trade bloc. The U.K. will be the first new nation to join the CPTPP since it was set up in 2018 >> not huge value in terms of trade, but still another step in the right direction!

  • Given how fast money can leave a bank these days electronically --- the bank lines outside in the street in the old days during a run was a form of liquidity management.... cash could only leave so fast... Now, those folks could read some silly comments on Twitter... and move their money (10's of billions..) from their Iphones in minutes-hours...

  • The UK’s ‘green day’ has turned into a fossil fuel bonanza – dirty money powers the Sunak government

  • Thread / As the Fed’s interest-rate hikes sent bond prices plunging last year, some of the country’s largest banks used a simple accounting manoeuvre to help keep billions of dollars of losses from piling up

  • The letter urges technology companies to immediately cease training any A.I. systems that would be “more powerful than GPT-4,” which is the latest large language processing A.I. developed by San Francisco company OpenAI

  • UBS: Kelleher's daring high stakes coup with Ermotti

  • US: FDIC "may lean on the big banks to cover $23bn in failure costs"

  • Goldman's Callahan with some color: "...the MAGMA + NVDA cohort has added a collective ~ $620bn of market cap since the regional bank issues began, which compares to ~ $950bn of collective market cap lost by the remaining 494 companies in the S&P"

  • Central Bankers Warn Companies On Fatter Profit Margins - FT >> is that the job of a central banker ?

  • ECB's Schnabel Says Eurozone Banks Not Seen Deposit Outflows' >> aggregate level, totally true, EUR MM funds are a 3rd of those of the US and depositors are fleeing into longer dated-maturity deposits

  • VIX vs MOVE is at an extreme that suggests the relationship may see some mean reversion. Whether that means MOVE falling, VIX rising, or both. Source: Refinitiv

  • China and France have completed their first LNG gas trade using the Chinese Yuan >> will add to the articles calling for the end of USD dominance etc etc

 
Markets :

  • Banking crisis of March 2023 : 3 badly managed banks went down, SPX500 still 4K, VIX hardly moved, DB CDS story (note CDS markets are SO LIGHT and so easily manipulated..! >>> peak fear was last week, since then we all breathe, plenty of cash on the side, few signs of inflation peaking in few places, that need to be confirmed in Q2..The bad news though is that lending standards will most likely tighten further (again bad for over leveraged names, no real matter to sound, low debt & well managed corporates)

  • USDollar remains 'soft' ish really, never really got a BIG bid on all this risk-off in March either, as it often did in the past years, even EMGFX has remained well behaved in all this

  • SPX500 4K still-again, though a LOT going underneath as usual, big 'recession' rotation, China, KWEB, REITS and so on. Nasdaq heads for one of its best quarters in a decade, up 17% in Q1, oversold + low rates + FED balance-sheet increase all clearly helping

  • GOLD, Silver, copper and crude all stayed firm and/bounce crude futures got ''smocked..''10days ago (all part of the capitulation that went on due to super HIGH vols in rates market..) and here we are again

 

Never wilder!


really!!!??

(Dow Jones) -- Credit Suisse Group AG is withdrawing certain proposals it planned to put to shareholders at its annual general meeting in early April, citing the planned merger with UBS Group AG. The troubled Swiss bank said late Wednesday that it is pulling proposals on the

discharge of members of the board of directors and the executive board for the 2022 financial year, as well as a separate proposal on a one-time deferredshare-based so-called transformation award for the executive board




MS - Mike Wilson thinks stocks will sell off as investors realise earnings guidance looks unrealistic. This is when the equity risk premium typically reprices and stocks may finally get ahead of the downside Mike sees in earnings estimates… just as bond markets have become dependent on Fed guidance over the past decade, the equity markets have become dependent on company earnings guidance. Given the events of the past few weeks, research thinks guidance is looking more and more unrealistic, and equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates ahead of any hard data changes. This is typically how bear markets end—i.e., P/E multiples fall precipitously and unexpectedly, catching many investors off guard.








wild scenes-good grief, make it stop!



NASDAQ - decision time as we start Q2, earnings report! 20% off Dec 2022 lows







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