Dec 8, 20224 min read

UK strikes / Further China-HK re-opening / BIS:US debt / BoC +25bps / Gold / EZ elec prices

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer jubilantly announced Wednesday that the Georgia runoff election victory will next year end an evenly divided U.S. Senate, giving Democrats more subpoena power in committees and a quicker turnaround in approving federal and judicial appointments
Why Europe’s electricity is so expensive. The main culprit is a surge in gas prices, and the market could face ‘further stress tests.’
European day-ahead electricity prices are rising toward the €400 per MWh range (France, UK, Belgium and Switzerland already above). That's crisis level territory, this could very likely become again a real issue, has DAX topped out - chart ?
China may make some reasonable reductions in negative list for market access and further optimize business environment in 2023: Shanghai Securities Journal cites experts
U.S Debt ceiling bomb nears as government spending balloons. Treasury will soon deploy 'extraordinary measures' to stay below the ceiling - US could see a fight over debt ceiling that rocks markets, Goldman Sachs warns, worth reading thread below though first
German industry resilience in Oct
Belgian CB losses, see thread below
BoC Hikes 50bps to 4.25%, as expected, now they are ''considering need for further hikes to curb inflation'' (so they dropped language that said they ''needed to rise further. No matter how we slice it, it's a pivot
China boosts gold reserves for the first time in over 3 years in possible attempt to diversify away from dollar, HK May End Outdoor Mask Rule, Relax Covid Tests, Report Says, Shanghai City Authorities: Will from Friday Stop Requiring Covid Test Checks for Restaurants or Entertainment Venues
ECB's Kazimir: -There are numerous reasons to keep the pace tight in December -It is premature to celebrate an inflation peak -QT should be transparent, progressive, and predictablle
Activist investor calls for BlackRock CEO Fink to step down over ESG ‘hypocrisy’
Winter of discontent spells electoral disaster for the Tories.Strikes are the grim result of the failure to control inflation
Saxo-Steen/Gone are the days where low interest rates could foster dreams of a harmonious world. Get ready for the war economy
UK government approves first new coal mine in decades despite concerns among Conservative MPs and experts about climate impact
Biden admin tells Supreme Court law protecting social media companies has limits

Markets :

GOLD - looks like CB's are still buying the yellow metal in Q4 (ZH article below)
Crude : US **total** crude oil inventories (both commercial and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to a 36-year low, dropping below the previous bottom set in 2001, time for Biden to start buying again..
USD rangy to slightly weaker again (UST yields lower), CNH slightly higher on further re-opening talks in both China and HK
Bonds generally higher again, UST 10's 3.42% - long way from the 4.30% blow off top, peak worries, peak inflation etc etc.. Time to park and wait for FOMC now
Equity markets testing previously mentioned SPX500 support around 3920, overall, we continue to focus on real economy & strong balance-sheets only, rates will remain higher for longer, even if Powell sounds whatever the market wants him to sound like next week