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Writer's pictureStéphan

#URA, #GDX, #UST3y auction weak, #HSI +20% since #contrarian Jan trade / #GOLD in vogue / U.S CPI and FOMC minutes up next today, ECB meeting tomorrow



  • U.S CPI up next, expected around 3.4%, markets don't need a new inflation lift-off, markets have about 60bps of FED Fund cuts priced in for 2024, earnings probably well received, Powell in mood of promising cuts in election year.. FOMC minutes later on + ECB tomorrow, where Christine will probably find a few excuses to be dovish too

  • #GOLD is so back in vogue!

  • UST Bond : 3y UST auction (weak) showed that increasing coupon issuance size to pandemic levels ($58b) might further exacerbate fiscal woes

  • German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius threw his weight behind calls for reform of rules that restrict new borrowing by the federal government to help fund a radical overhaul of the nation’s armed forces, he aid the Bundeswehr’s financial needs can’t be met solely by reallocating money from elsewhere in the budget once a special fund worth €100 billion ($109 billion) is exhausted in 2027.... more spending

  • A group of older Swiss women have won the first ever climate case victory in the European Court of Human Rights. The women, mostly in their 70s, said that their age and gender made them particularly vulnerable to the effects of heatwaves linked to climate change

  • BoJ to consider raising inflation forecasts after results of recent wage negotiations

  • More than a dozen retired four-star generals, admirals and other former military leaders filed an amicus brief with in the Supreme Court on Monday, arguing against former President Trump’s claims of immunity in his criminal cases

  • New data on Moderna's cancer vaccine sends stock rising. The pharma company announced results of an early stage trail on Monday that suggests that its experimental treatment could be used for a variety of cancers

  • Small business optimism hit an 11-year low as inflation fears persist, #highforlonger hurts weakest balance-sheets (something the Mag10 say don't have to worry too much about)

  • Jan '24 contrarian trade update : Hang Seng China Index now up 20% from 2024 lows. Hang Seng China, HSI and MSCI China now at highest levels YTD, you are in a good position now!

  • Billionaire Patrick Drahi’s Altice is asking creditors to agree to losses as the company’s embattled French telecommunications arm pushes to slash a debt burden of almost €25 billion ($27 billion) >> MS raised their Brent target price to $94 (from 90)

  • EIA has global oil demand at 102.34mbpd, global oil supply at 102.10mbpd in March

  • Currently, we're sitting at a record19.8% vacant at the national level," Moody's head of commercial real estate economics

  • France : The Macron camp under high tension with a deficit still above 5% in 2024

 





Gold is so back




Higher consumer spending has been financed primarily by more people working (at better jobs), for longer hours, at higher pay.



Madness, stop this guy...or else



Bond hair cut coming





#GDX gold miners - have hardly moved long-term


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