Turkey election: Can a divided opposition wrest power from Erdogan after 20 years?, If the opposition wins, they will inherit a financial mess
Just one week but highest U.S initial claims since late 2021 (264K) - trending higher
BoE hiked 25bps, as expected, to 4.5%, and in all probabilities, more to come. The Bank of England Corporate Bond QE programme which reached £20 billion is now nearly over, "The sales programme was expected to conclude in coming weeks". Bailey admits he was wrong on recession – with record upgrade for UK economy
China : More Chinese cities offer free accommodations to lure jobseekers, ease their financial burden >>> Chinese youth unemployment 20%, China CPI, PPI way down in recent months, setting trend for RoW ?..
ECB : 'expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became slightly more negative and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased' >>> so if correct, 3year expectations at 3%, this IS important, we all agree inflation is coming down, but there is a Very decent risk it won't come down to target, thus CB's will pause but won't cut as quick as many think.... and they may actually still HIKE in short-term... this is definitely where the market will swing between soft and hard landing!
''The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor with the budget deficit widening to $1.9 trillion''.. This is occurring when the economy is still in an expansion with the Unemployment Rate at a 54-year low of 3.4%. What happens to the deficit when a recession hits? (Thread below), one of the point of Druckenmiller (he even mentioned ''at least France big spender usually, did the hard (must do) work of moving pensions from 62 to 64..
Until 1953, Swiss women who married foreigners automatically lost their citizenship
Regulators should look at a short-selling ban on banks, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says >> why? it didn't work in 2008, it made things worse anyway at the time.... and that's a big moral hazard...
Trump urges GOP to let catastrophic debt default happen if Dems don’t accept cuts, sounds like a great plan Donald! good grief
China, India, Singapore, Turkey and UAE are all providing Russia a helping hand in evading Western oil sanctions
Markets :
Big Techs love 'inversion', signs of breaking up (for many HF and specs, the pain trade..). SPX500 4150-4200, could very well be challenged, if NQ continues and actually leads higher
The strong continue getting stronger and the weak are getting weaker. The NASDAQ vs Russell ratio is getting very close to the post Covid mania levels
Commods, crude had another 'bad' week, mind you this is good for inflation in a few months!
EURO ''loosing steam 1.10+'', USD caught a little bit of a bid last 48hours, commods initially softer on weak global manufacturing, eventually metals and few USD pairs higher, not by much mind! but worth noting nonetheless. ZAR going in one direction though, down (SA supplied arms to Russia article below not helping)
Rates markets beginning to think/price a Fed cut by September, the likes of UBS see a negative NFP by end of summer!... US claims the lead..! (best quality and frequency data) >>> JPMORGAN: “.. today’s jobless claims reading .. hints at potentially more abrupt slowing. If sustained for the month of May, the 3m/3m change will have surged to 17.4% — a jump that would clearly put it in the range only seen in recessions over the past half-century.”
The 1-month Treasury bill yield has moved up to 5.81% - debt ceiling worries
Druck : from his latest interview, worth every minute... ''when you have free money, people do stupid things. When you have free money for 11 years, people do really stupid things. So there's stuff under the hood, it's starting to emerge. Obviously the regional banks recently, But I would assume there's a lot more bodies coming''
China, India, Singapore, Turkey and UAE are all providing Russia a helping hand in evading Western oil sanctions
''Interest on the debt at $928 billion now exceeds Defense spending in the USA … and it is still climbing rapidly. Interest payments on govt debt will rise to $1.1 trillion next year''
“We have ~$600B of Office CRE.. maybe some of that will go bad. They are going to be Ok..it may take a few banks down.. that is normal stuff. That is not abnormal.” “What’s abnormal is War, Trade, Future of Democracy. I am much more concerned about that”. J Dimon May 11, 2023
More Chinese cities offer free accommodations to lure jobseekers, ease their financial burden | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) not a pretty picture
From the other week-end, when you have time, it's worth watching ! Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full afternoon session with Warren Buffett - YouTube brilliant the both of them!
Politics UK on Twitter: "🚨 | NEW: The Speaker of the House SHOUTS at Kemi Badenoch for being rude “Who do you think you’re speaking to, SOC? It is time this government recognised that we’re ALL elected and use the correct manners” https://t.co/wPN2ePI2Iv" / Twitter ODA oda oda! "I am the defender of this house and these benches on both sides. I am not going to be spoken to by a secretary of state who is absolutely not accepting my ruling, take it with good grace and accept it."
Until 1953, Swiss women who married foreigners automatically lost their citizenship!
have a wonderful weekend
Team PVM
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