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Writer's pictureStéphan

US ISM services PMI 54.1, cuts?, FOMC minutes tonight / Trump speech : signature tone of strong rhetorics


  • SPX500 : rallied on 6th November and closed 5'930...same as today

  • Trump adopting a ''role of global bully'', whether this is purely transactional or real, we shall see, with economic as well as military threats... and he had his first dig at the FED wanting lower interest rates (FOMC minutes tonight will say differently.. ISM was super strong yesterday) , and NO mention of #BTC >>> crude higher, UST yields higher, USdollar higher..Treasury auction last night, draws highest Yield since 2007 in bond selloff

  • How top Fed bank cop's resignation limits Trump's options

  • US Govt interest debt payments are 20% of tax revenues, real job growth ? : US government jobs hit a RECORD 23.5 million in November. Government jobs 18-month moving average growth hit nearly 3%, the fastest pace in at least 45 YEARS

  • Maga vs the billionaires. Trump’s fragile coalition is already splintering over immigration, #MAGA believing all they see on X, is backfiring..

  • Recap : #UST : FED cut rates by 1% since Sep 2024 and 10y rates are 1% higher >> which is HIGHLY unusual, less demand from foreign investors, or indeed the cut was not justified? the market has clearly spoken, something ain't right, and we have a HUGE amount of debt to roll across the world in 2025, a combination of all these factors are the reasons, most likely >>> EITHER YIELDS GO UP still to satisfy bond investors, bongivilantes etc (which would be highly damaging for the economy)... or the USDollar weakens.. I'll take the latter (eventually - trouble is the choice in other currencies is not exactly inviting! -- sell some 'crowded, well owned positions, take some profit where you can and have some cash on the side in Q1 ( The Nasdaq just posted its single largest daily volume in HISTORY with 13.4 BILLION shares traded yday, big money selling rallies?..)... USD positioning is very long $$$ since late last year, must keep an eye on short-term techs/momentum..

  • Is this allowed ?..Bank of America downgrades Tesla due to high valuation and risks to EV maker’s strategy

  • China has expanded the scope of a consumer goods trade-in scheme and will give more subsidies for digital purchases this year, in an effort to revive sluggish domestic demand, an official policy document showed on Wednesday, eq down fairly sharply

  • JPMorgan Chase is going full return-to-office


 



No rate cut possible on this...




Trump Escalates threats vs all its neighbours, Greenland, Canada, Panama, UK and even Danemark/EU : that some entrance with his 1st speech as almost new President


    • -Trump declined to rule out using military or economic coercion as he detailed plans to seek greater US influence over Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal during a press conference Tuesday. 

    • A military confrontation over his desire to win US control over Greenland or the Panama Canal, he said that he was “not going to commit to that.” “I can’t assure you on either of those two, but I can say this, we need them for economic security,” Trump said at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

    • ''absorbing Canada “would really be something,” addressing his concerns over US military assistance and trade deficits with its northern neighbour. “We’ve been good neighbours, but we can’t do it forever,” Trump said

    • also says NATO member states should increase their defence spending to "5%, not 2%" "They can all afford it."




Maga vs the billionaires FT article - well worth a read, and IMHO all that matters is the Bessent's plan 3-3-3..the rest is noise for X followers Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan: what to know | Fox Business




On Bubble Watch Podcast : On January 2, 2000, Howard Marks published his first memo to garner any reader response, bubble.com, calling attention to excesses he detected in the market for tech and internet stocks. His newest memo revisits the subject of bubbles. Howard expresses his view that they’re more a state of mind than a quantitative calculation and describes bubble thinking as irrational, often underlaid by a widespread belief that ‘‘this time is different.’’ Rather than opining on whether we’re in a bubble, Howard lists the signs he sees today and suggests how you might think about them . . . just as he did 25 years ago




The Putinisation of central Europe Austria could soon get its most extreme chancellor since the 1940s










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