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Writer's pictureStéphan

UST 10y 4.4%, bond vigilantism! / Dutch border controls / Postelection euphoria takes a breather ? / U.S CPI next !



  • So musk will lead the 'Department of Government Efficiency, which will be called .... wait for it .... DOGE >>> couldn't make this up.. mind you it's been pumped for a bit, pretty lucrative for Musk ! MAGA punters switched from cash and gold to crypto and #DOGE


  • UST's weakened to what should be the top of the range near 4.5%, that's 85bps HIGHER since FED started to cut interest rates.. #TrumpTrade added to the bond vigilantes' worries and today we get U.S CPI (possibly leaked yesterday?..), we are now just 10 basis points away from the Equity Risk Premium shifting negative >>> IF we were to break up in yields terms, this will really start to worry equity markets, reminder that a 3rd of the entire U.S debt needs to be rolled over next 3 years. USDMXN has risen recently on pretty terrible reforms locally, #trump premium could be added to this trade from here too (risk), overall the far bigger risk from here on (as opposed to in 2021) is the market's extreme valuation in the face of rising rates, back in 2021, yields were near enough to ZERO, today is different, clearly, from here on (most likely) Postelection euphoria takes a breather, (watch out key levels below for corrective action) now all the fun begins as market starts to sort out the actual winners and losers from the expected ones


  • EURUSD : is falling almost identically as it did after the U.S. election in 2016, current expectations of fiscal easing int he US, tariffs on Europe, it is hard to see why the ECB would fight this move >>> also worth noting European Stocks moved lower through their 200D moving average

  • The Netherlands will implement land border controls from December 9th, further challenge to #Schengen

  • Trump builds hawkish team with Rubio and Waltz tipped for top jobs, Musk and Ramaswamy will lead government efficiency group

  • Likely narrow GOP House majority could put Trump’s tax cuts in jeopardy/ RayJames

  • Exxon CEO:Trump should keep U.S. involved in global effort to address climate change

  • 50% of Germans say raising the defence spending to 3-3,5% GDP is just right! 15% even think that’s not enough!

  • Analysts at BofA and Goldman Sachs just raised their 2024 forecast to $3,000! With potential Fed rate cuts and continued central bank buying, gold could hit record highs


 









Letter: Farmers’ tax break merely pushed up UK land prices This is the only thing you need to understand about inheritance tax on farmland







Winter is coming



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