World bond index.. biggest 2month gain on record >>> CHF closing 2023 on all time highs, JPY and metals react, pretty classic FX moves on inflation collapse, bonf and risk melt-up
Global investors remain bearish on the Chinese market due to worries about its property troubles, according to a Bank of America survey >>> EMG up 15% in 2023 and SHCOMP down 15%..the contrarians will notice and pick some China exposure for 2024
US Labor Market Seen Cooling in 2024, Regional Fed Surveys Show
UST's : broadly speaking back to where they were same time last year, as discussed many times back then, the FED was far too late in hiking in 2021-22 (did far too much QE:.), then had to catch up and overdo with hikes in 2023...and here we are, 2y yields are now about 15-20bps lower on the year and Fed funds is 1% higher...
Stocks typically continue to rise when the FED starts to cut, unless there is a recession, all about that soft landing that is currently priced in by pretty much everyone
Robert Holzmann, one of the ECB’s most hawkish Governing Council members, says it’s too early to talk about lowering borrowing costs, and such a move in 2024 is anything but certain
Japan’s currency received the largest inflow from global FX reserves among the eight tracked by the IMF in the third quarter, based on the latest data from the fund adjusted for exchange-rate fluctuations and returns on short-term government bonds…
Half of the container ship fleet that regularly transits the Red Sea and Suez Canal is now avoiding the route because of the threat of attacks in the region
Market expectations for Fed's rate path is as follow :
-Jan 2024 still pausing
-March 2024 - 25bps cut to 5.0-5.25%
-May 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.75-5.0%
-June 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.5-4.75%
-July 2024 - 25bps cut to 4.25-4.5%
-Additional cuts priced in all the way down to 3.15% by Dec 2025..
blame game
USDJPY
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