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Writer's pictureStéphan

UST's best month since 1980 lifts other assets / OPEC meets / COP28, China all-in on clean tech



  • COP28 is on at the same time OPEC meets. China going all-in on clean tech

  • Israel and Hamas reached a last-minute agreement on Thursday to extend their six-day ceasefire, granting negotiators additional time to finalize deals involving the exchange of hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners

  • Saudi Arabia offers Iran investment to blunt Gaza War

  • Fed’s Beige Book finds economy has slowed — and so has inflation - market has already priced this in with few cuts priced in 2024, March '24 in play now, data dependent etc

  • French economy contracts in Q3, inflation eases further

  • China scrambles to contain a looming shadow-Bank meltdown >> One of China’s largest investment banks has warned its analysts against making any bearish calls and to avoid showing off their lavish lifestyle, as Beijing continues to clamp down on well-paid bankers

  • Sergio Ermotti’s second term of office as UBS Chairman has only just begun. But the bank’s chairman Colm Kelleher is already thinking about a succession plan

  • Saudi Arabia offers Iran investment to blunt Gaza War

  • China manufacturing PMI 49.4 in Nov

  • The S&P500 is on pace for its 4th best month - of any month - in nearly 30y (1994)

 

Markets :

  • UST's a lot of talks of FED cutting next year >>> A LOT is already priced in, nearly 40-50% probability of a March cut alfrady priced in >>> 50 year record long-end move ending extremely inverted, classic from here would be a bull steepner (dec seasonals etc) , so if you been on this move, migh well be worth taking some P ! and await from December brings, PCE today and Powell speask tomorrow too.. >>> ECB also full ypriced to cut 25bps in April 2024

  • USDollar similarly, has done a fair bi of work in November, never hurts to take some profits on USD shorts established 6weeks ago, stay short CROSSJPY's, long some JPY goin ginto Dec and possible Jan YCC move from BoJ

  • Equity markets, the huge momentum chasing move has done a lot of work, SPX500 4550/4600 area let alone 4700 are levels to ease-off and take some profts, not chase

  • WTI Crude picking up - found a base again low-mid 70's - hard to think it goes lower >>> OPEX+ meeting to consider oil output cuts

  • Copper and few other commodities had a good month too (thus also a sign that infaltion unlikely to disappear...so easely)

  • -VIX on lows, worth a look as a hedge - if you looking for some more risk into Dec, it should move higher form here


 



What China’s Clean Energy Push Means for COP28 (bloomberg.com) >>> "Once complete, the renewables bases will total 455 gigawatts of wind turbines and solar panels. That’s more clean energy generation capacity than is currently available in any nation outside China, and almost the size of the entire power network — including coal plants and nuclear reactors — in India, the world’s third-largest system."










what and icon, great brief story of his life - IMHO, he was the man with the best one-liners - ever





EURJPY - trending lower towards 150-153?


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