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VIX 17months lows, U.S CDS new highs / Fed cuts priced in up to '24 / Commods lower / BoJ Friday





  • The deficit reduction plan put forward by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy would notably slow economic growth and increase unemployment next year, an analysis by Moody’s shows

  • When UBS took over Credit Suisse, it was primarily eyeing its wealth management business. But that unit of prime tenderloin now looks considerably less appetizing, UBS: Significant inflows in wake of Credit Suisse buyout – but profit halved

  • First Republic's deposits plummeted $72 billion in the first quarter, even after Wall Street's largest lenders parked $30 billion with the regional bank to shore up its finances after the collapse of SVB and others

  • London Q1 finance job vacancies plummet 31% year-on-year 'as firms struggle with economic and geopolitical headwinds, says Morgan McKinley'

  • ECB's Schnabel spoke on Monday, 50 basis points are not off the table

  • U.K. Retail Sales Look Set to Recover Only Gradually Over the Course of this Year/Thread

  • A selloff in Chinese equities is deepening as traders weigh a barrage of economic and geopolitical risks, with global funds accelerating their exodus

  • The EU and Japan opposed the US proposal to the G7 countries to ban all exports to Russia, writes the Financial Times

 
Markets :
  • VIX on 17months lows >>> BEWARE of vol reawakening for whatever reasons, many shorts and many asleep at the wheel, that's when one should worry and get that hedge on board

  • Commodities ETF (OUT)..flows - see Saxo, Iron Ore lower, Copper too

  • 1y US CDS risk hitting new highs (debt ceiling risk etc), as VIX vols hit new lows - something's not quite right

  • SOFR spreads currently pricing 150bps of cuts to mid 2024 >> point is it's priced in already, hence it helped Equity markets to hold higher ground, but BEWARE if mood changes and we head back to higher for longer on sticky inflation data

  • USDCHF breaking down again it seems, pressure is on, as long as we remain sub .89-.9000 area on weekly basis, through .8800 area and downside may accelerate (tech picture really not great!), U.S debt ceiling issues not helping (clearly)

  • SPX500 4150-4200 top still, low vols, low volumes not necessarily positive for markets

 









One of the main 'pump and dump' dude from back then, SPAC's and al...



what a mess this all is there - hard to realize the night mare for so many people, lucky those who can escape, but as usual, many innocent will suffer



No drama, still way higher then Q3 last year, but...short-term price action weak / Copper







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