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#VNO:commercial REITs / Crude well off lows / MOVE index - vol peak / Few ECB speakers today




  • Vornado's portfolio is concentrated in the nation's key market, New York City, along with the premier asset in both Chicago and San Francisco ( office real estate..)

  • First Citizens purchase of SVB looks like one of the best deal of our time! >>> ''The ten largest deposit accounts at SVB held $13.3 billion in the aggregate'' no exactly you average deposit size..

  • China’s economic rebound weaker than expected, warns Maersk. One of world’s largest shipping groups says country’s consumers are still ‘stunned’ by Covid disruptions

  • 70-Year-Old ('''70'''....amazing) T-55 Tanks are ‘Expendable’ in Ukraine

  • Bitcoin dropped following news of Binance and CEO CZ being sued by the US CFTC over regulatory violation

  • Financial turmoil will not affect Bank of England’s push to curb inflation, says Bailey, ''have to remain very alert if prices stay firm, monetary policy also has to take into account credit conditions, we we do''

  • Japan Finance Ministry gives rare nudge to BOJ amid bond worries. With change in offing, official stresses Kuroda remark on 'dialogue with markets'

  • Inflation in UK shops hits record high with more pain to come, prices in stores jumped by 8.9% in the year to March, chocolate, fruit and vegetables all became more expensive

  • EU reaches deal on service stations for EVs, alternative fuels

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he’ll delay a controversial plan to weaken the judiciary following days of unprecedented protests

 

Markets :
  • Crude look to have turned - well off lows - Thread and charts below. ''''Hedge fund sold 1.5x more barrels (part of recent HF unwinding nightmare..) just in 2 weeks than the record SPR did in the entire year. The problem is when funds buy back their shorts, there will be no SPR to offset the buying pressure''''

  • Bonds still wild, Jun SFR -40bps from Friday highs, May -15, which means market is 50/50 for a May hike again. So 2y UST yields moved from 3.65 lows on Thrusday to nearly 4% now.. #Marchmadness , liquidities atrocious (give size of what these large leverage funds 'need' to turn at time'' )

  • USDollar remains soft overall, not picking up strength last few days on the back UST moves, ECB staying pretty hawkish, few speakers today again, including Lagarde + BoE'a Bailey

  • SPX500 still around 4K, which is where it was 1month ago, obviously a LOT more going on underneath, massive rotations, financials and so on, 4040 key still - chart below

  • Markets trying to 'breathe' for air, bond vols need to move lower!, looks like we reached the top #marchmadness last week - MOVE index chart below..which will clearly help markets to calm down, banking shares also calming down etc..

 

Kind of crash mode, see chart, though if you want to be a contrarian...



Even chocolate! damnit


MOVE index IS key


Michael Kao on Twitter: "Musings of the Day, 3/27/23: I've been saying that the epicenter of the next crisis will NOT be in the Banking sector and more likely to be in Shadow Banking. This chart from DB corroborates at least the first part of my postulate: https://t.co/ct1z5q7cW3" / Twitter ''''epicenter of the next crisis will NOT be in the Banking sector and more likely to be in Shadow Banking''' but it's complicated, large-small hit in at various levels, depositors schemes, BTFP, discount window all come into play and who you lend to in the end..


Turn on Crude prices ?



They should know ?



An independent Russian newspaper—one of the few left in the country—asked some hard questions about those 70-year-old T-54 and T-55 tanks the Kremlin is pulling out of long-term storage, presumably for front-line use in Ukraine.



Snapped assets at the right time and at the right level (in the panic it's cheaper) >>> One of the best bank deals of our time! shares up 50% yesterday


Good for him!







#VNO - US commercial real estate REIT's - this is why markets worried about WHICH banks are mostly involved in this sector, there will be plenty of very bad loans in there..







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