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Warren's wisdom, tears into banks / USDJPY / Slightly softer U.S CPI / FOMC minutes



  • Warren Buffet tears into banks (slams banks for hiding their losses), trashes bitcoin, and warns inflation and recession can lead to big problems (late 70's example, Volcker etc), hence Fed has to stay strong, talked about his recent JPN Investments (and JPY? is he looking for end of YCC..?)..

  • FOMC minutes: Staff’s projections included a mild recession starting later this year

  • According to the number crunchers with the Committee for a Responsible U.S Federal Budget, the government is borrowing roughly $6 billion a day

  • Row casts shadow on Joe Biden visit to Belfast. US President reaches out as a ‘friend’ to Unionists amid warnings against America intervening in power sharing row

  • Italian residents' deposits with domestic banks fell in February for a fourth month, hitting their lowest level in just over two years as rising interest rates and high inflation prompted savers to seek remuneration for their cash, data showed

  • ‘Pissed off as hell’: US tries to contain leaks fallout with friends and enemies

  • BoE : New technology means that banks can collapse much more quickly than before, the Governor of the Bank of England has warned

  • The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged for the second straight meeting, saying recent data is reinforcing its confidence that inflation will continue to slow

  • North Korea missile launch sparks panic and evacuations in Japan. A South Korean military official said the test apparently involved a new weapons system displayed at a recent North Korean military parade, possibly using solid fuel

  • ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May

 

Markets :
  • USDollar remains soft(er), drifting lower as cooling inflation brings end in sigh for Fed rate hikes, one more and done probably, whether the FED actually cuts what the market has already priced in, is another question. Nomura looking for 120 USDJPY by year-end (see article below) - vols are low, if you were looking for some downside play it's now..

  • SPX500 tested that 4150 area and corrected back to 41, we are definitely getting into expensive valuations 4150/4200 area is not really the place to increase risk over earnings reports period.

  • Commods, GOLD, copper all holding up well / grinding higher, XAGUSD could start to have some gappy price action

 

Upside pain? Goldman's flow guru, Scott Rubner, is back and he is bullish. Main bullets are: 1. Positioning is very short and fundamental investors are under exposed given low net HF exposure 2. Flow of fund technicals remain favorable from CTA’s, tax deadlines pass, and corporates return to the open window 3. Sentiment remains bearish, and “JOMO” joy of missing out, turns back into “FOMO” fear of missing out 4. Liquidity is the highest level of 2023 Given the fact implied volatility has imploded, playing a possible squeeze with upside calls offer attractive risk reward.


Warren Buffett: why he bought 5 Japanese trading houses (cnbc.com) He has more patience, long-term, than anyone, but they don't really look all that cheap looking a a 20y chart..



Yes indeed, everyone has an Iphone... why didn't they realize this a long while back..?? they probably still using checks!







Sounded like a great idea initially..








SPX500



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