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Apr 6, 20234 min read

Weaker U.S ISM services and ADP / Confirmation, risk of stagflation on the increase / Happy Easter



  • The services economy is slowing, too. This is a big deal as services are 77.6% of the US economy! US ISM Services PMI at 51.2 vs 54.4 expectations. The previous reading was 55.1...Every part of ISM Services PMI dropped like a rock, new orders from 62.6 down to 52.2

  • Almost 30% of the rally in the NDX from March 13 until March 31 was driven by 2 stocks, AAPL and MSFT. Almost 800 of the 1351 points gained on the NDX were from 6 stocks/BBG

  • Mester: “Recent Bank turmoil could lead to tighter credit.” >>> maybe Mester & Bullard should spend more time on recent U.S data which is clearly showing a big stagflation coming

  • The head of Sweden’s biggest pension fund has reassured clients that the firm is financially solid despite a failed investment strategy that wiped out $2 billion in retirement savings

  • Switzerland to cancel, cut Top Credit Suisse Executives’ Bonuses & clawbacks potentially

  • Germany seeks to limit Brussels’ scope on national debt reduction plans.Finance minister Christian Lindner is sceptical about European Commission’s role as fiscal enforcer

  • China's Caixin services PMI for March comes in at 57.8, the highest in 28 months, vs expected 55, previous 55, New orders hit new high since Dec 2020.. in contrast to the U.S

  • "2/3rds of offshore China property bonds currently outstanding are from issuers that have either defaulted or have conducted bond exchange transactions or maturity extensions on their USD bonds" - GS

  • French President Emmanuel Macron urged Xi Jinping to use his influence to help restore peace to Ukraine, saying the Chinese leader could bring all sides together to discuss a way to end the Russian invasion

  • New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios

  • Another central bank pauses as the Reserve Bank of India holds interest-rates at 6.5%

  • Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate - good grief

 
Markets:

  • US Regional Bank stocks have not shown any signs of recovery this week !

  • UST in collapsing mode this week, deflation risk ! >>> lower rates are good for risk only if inflation follows lower, it may well in months ahead, but we not there yet

  • #EURJPY #USDJPY even #GBPJPY technical set up looking increasingly bearish

  • GOLD testing previous highs, while miners still 30% below fair value and #XAGUSD is still 50pct or so below previous highs in 2011, when there were risk regarding U.S debt ceiling.. sounds familiar ? and since then the US debt has gone up exponentially (elsewhere too mind.. debt is not just a U.S risk..)

  • SPX500 in 'peak mode' going into earnings season, 4100/4200 should remain pretty toppish overall - big picture

 




(Bloomberg) -- Top Credit Suisse Group AG executives will have outstanding bonuses canceled or reduced by up to half, according to a statement from the Swiss government on Wednesday. 

After a temporary suspension on March 21, the government said it has now decided that the executive board will have all outstanding variable renumeration to the end of 2022 canceled, while top managers one and two levels below will have theirs reduced by 50% and 25% respectively, according to the statement. 

The move will affect around 1,000 Credit Suisse employees and amounts to between 50 million and 60 million Swiss francs ($66.3 million). 

Credit Suisse must also look at potentially recovering bonuses already paid out and to report back to both the Swiss finance ministry and financial regulator Finma on the matter. 

The government has also decreed that UBS Group AG, which is acquiring Credit Suisse, must amend its own remuneration system so that it takes into consideration non-utilization of the federal guarantee it received when deciding on bonuses for executives, according to the statement.









Thoughts?..



The amazing thing is that they have to come out and say it...







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