Of course it will change many things in the world..... but Wall Street got very bullish on Ai last 3-4nonths and price action/momentum pushed these markets to extremes, upgrades after upgrades, now we are in the phase of 'show me the money-earnings', after huge capex spent (and more to come to 2025), earnings are not following as quickly as markets hoped.... Another example here : WPP one of the world's biggest ad business, should have massive cost benefits from AI, but downgrades 2024 profit outlook
U.S : Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year
Novo Nordisk isn't selling as much Wegovy and Ozempic as expected
As Bloomberg notes, "China’s export engine, vital for keeping the country’s growth target of around 5% within reach, is now threatened by signs of sagging US demand."
A decade long dispute between Coca Cola and the U.S tax authorities has escalated to the point that it could owe $16bn in back taxes
Global wind capacity will more than double by 2030 (but it’s a shortfall)
GS: Spreads have now broken out of their recent range $LQD $HYG - At 5.1%, the yield on the US IG index is near the lows since August 2022, 11% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest in over a decade
If Japan can't even hike rates off ZERO without breaking the system, then why on earth would anyone want to own a long duration sovereign bon from any govt really (own not trade..) >>> Another ugly 10YR US Treasury auction yesterday - Tail over 3 bps, flight to safety ?
Copper prices are down nearly 20% now from the top
BofA: A reminder that asset prices don’t always go up, wealth effects can cut both ways. #INTC now trading at prices not seen since March 2014 (dividend adjusted)
RBA : Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has vowed the RBA “will not hesitate” to hike interest rates to avoid exposing Australians to prolonged high inflation
Harris running mate Gov. Tim Walz owns no stocks, bonds or real estate, disclosure shows
Tension with Lebanon ‘may escalate into war,' Israel's defense minister says
To cut or not to cut Hey, Jerome Powell: Please don’t cut interest rates (msn.com)
My humble guess is we are half way through the carry unwind - no-one really knows exactly
China confirms the discovery of a major natural gas field in the South China Sea | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)
Tier1 Alpha on X: "1/ An Important Thread On Volatility 🧵 Two days after the largest single-day intraday increase in $VIX in history, we had one of the biggest vol declines in history. Predictably, $SPX rallied. But let's be clear, this event has likely changed the calculus on many strategies. https://t.co/QNYonXiz3g" / X
WPP downgrades forecasts on global uncertainty despite FGS sale (ft.com) WPP one of the world's biggest ad business, should have massive cost benefits from AI, but downgrades 2024 profit outlook, just not happening at the speed the mkt wants.............WPP is also investing more in AI tools, as well as services to clients based on data and technology to deliver advertising campaigns that are cheaper, faster and more targeted towards individual consumers. The group is committing an investment of £250mn every year in AI-driven technology...... in fact you could argue...it may be making their cost base worse rather than better$.... AI tools in advertising should deliver instantly to be honest
Another disappointment for markets SMCI misses Q4 earnings, tops revenue guidance estimates (yahoo.com)
Michael Pettis on X: "1/12 As Bloomberg notes, "China’s export engine, vital for keeping the country’s growth target of around 5% within reach, is now threatened by signs of sagging US demand." We must however think about the consequences systemically, and not incrementally. https://t.co/1P81y8C8RQ" / X
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