-The Chicago PMI fell to 37.2 in November, these are levels consistent with almost 100% probability of a recession. US housing market. Existing home sales now just a fraction above pandemic lows and the worst since 201, Nov. makes it 10th straight months of U.S. home sales declines, which is unprecedented
-European NatGas prices on lowest level since June, mild temperature + record LNG imports + inventories pretty full, easing supply concerns
-China to cut quarantine for overseas Travelers from January
-Market cap of Big Tech is down about $4.5 trillion!, 40% from peak
-The biggest money printers now are the Bank of Japan. With their YCC tweak, total assets should no longer increase as much/Thread, eventually BoJ will have to go to 75bps, probably sometime in March 2023, unless pressure heats up earlier
Markets :
-SPX500 picked up momentum above 3835, as expected..Nike results helped sentiment too
-UST curve steepened 5bps or so, mixed data + a strong 20y auction, seasonally weak liquidity, volumes super low in both bonds and equity markets
-GOLD chart below - bulls need 1850$+
-USD remains on defensive, but no lower, though AUD popping it's head higher on further China reopening news
PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) this yearly stuff makes you think, well worth a read
Which one of these top 10 'outrageous prediction' do you fanzy ?
rate going to stay elevated in 2023...
Interview with Le Monde (europa.eu) Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Éric Albert on 15 December and published on 22 December
GOLD $1850 is the 61.8% - break of which required to get bulled up for 2023
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