Inflation is still high and US banks need support. Jerome Powell can’t fix one without hurting the other — from here on, and very most likely...? ..and for the first time ever the Fed is going to have to choose..
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to reassure jittery investors that American bank deposits were safe and promised policymakers had more firepower to battle any crisis even as bank stocks resumed their slide on Thursday >>> Run into US money mkt funds continues. Assets rose by another $117bn in past week to hit ATH
Biden’s approval rating falls again amid concerns about economy, Poll Finds >>> TikTok ban would be 'a slap in the face' to young Democratic voters, activists warn
Financial turmoil complicates central banks’ focus on inflation. Some former monetary policymakers fear narrow focus on damping price pressures could exacerbate panic
Hindenburg strikes again, the new Adani is Block
UK consumer mood hits one-year high, but financial gloom persists
Markets were caught by surprise by Credit Suisse's multi-billion dollar AT1 bond write-off. Banks sound off on the future of the asset class, especially in Asia
FOMC, BoE, SNB and Norges Bank all raised 25bps, as expected >>> from here on, the market thinks maybe another 1 hike in some places, a pause, and eventually a cut or 2 in 2024, this assuming inflation moderate back down towards say 4pct towards year-end
The Fed has outsourced monetary policy and lost control of the economy, former White House advisor says, Gary Cohn not mincing his words
Archegos founder Hwang must face fraud charges, US judge says
French protesters vent fury at Macron over pension push
UK and EU to seal Northern Ireland Brexit deal - a bit late, but getting there finally !
Gundlach says he forecasts the FOMC will cut rates, substantially, soon (he doesn't think financials calm down..)
Markets :
FXland, when it's about credit risk, JPY will surge, GOLD not far behind and CHF
2yUST 3.70% - absolutely unreal... not too long ago it was 5%
Equity markets, banks much in focus clearly, SPX500 : sell ripps and rallies to put on some hedgies, NQ does well on lower rates, but funding will become more expansive and this many will chose equity issuance going forward, be careful out there
IMHO : I could foresee a Fed cutting 150bps one day on financial stability risk, thus forgetting about inflation for a bit (GOLD would fly, and so would JPY..), or continue to stay stubborn on inflation and hope banking issues ease off after quarter-end, anything goes.
The unbearable tightness of bank funding | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) well worth a listen! and few charts to back it all up PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com)
Janet Yellen on Wednesday : Not considering any new insurance to back up bank deposits beyond the current $250k limit
Janet Yellen yesterday : The strong actions we have taken ensure that Americans’ deposits are safe
>>>> no wonder investors/markets are confused and thus more volatile..! and if you were to guaranty all deposits, you socialise the entire system, and then politicians will be in charge ! be careful what you wish for . The MOST obvious and would be MOST popular is for banks to pay decent deposit rates!! that way investors will be more stable, but then banks will be less profitable.. (many US banks, almost all, including JP etc paying near enough to nothing on short-term deposit, when UST 2y is 4% , was 5% not long ago
The Fed's balance sheet increasing $392 billion over the last 2 weeks, the largest 2-week spike higher since April 2020. Thus over 60% of the Quantitative Tightening since last April has been undone ... in just two weeks.
“This is not the ECB in 2008,” says AdamPosen, referring to the now-infamous ECB decision to raise interest rates ahead of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Both the Fed & BoE should raise rates or risk entrenching “the inflationary dynamics."
Macron doing what he said he was going to do, reform France...now French people unhappy - good grief, what a nightmare, across France!
Dan Snow on Twitter: "My eagle eyed wife compiled a short highlights sizzle. https://t.co/xkdqgTegu5" / Twitter this is brilliant :-)
Sure is tough out there ! good grief
USDCHF - clearly not a good price action lately - must hold this .9100/50 area for the bulls, EURCHF struggling to clear par - GBPCHF need a BIG 1.15+ to change the negative trend of last many years..
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