U.S CPI ahead, where 0.1% up or down difference will keep every economists on the planet on alert for new news..There are some changes on how the U.S govt estimates health insurance costs, which could boost the number. U:S CPI expected to be 3.3% YoY (previous 3.7%), Fed speakers later on : Jefferson, Barr and Goolsbee
ZEW : economic exp. for Germany have again increased, currenct assessment remains unchanged at low level, signs that economic weakness has 'bottomed out'
Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt
Stellantis offers buyouts to roughly half of U.S. salaried workers
Gang says ICBC paid ransom over hack that disrupted US Treasury market
Biden says Gaza hospitals must be protected
UK's political reshuffle yet again
U.S. Bank Lending declined for the first time in 13 years according to data from SocGen
BoA FM survey : investors most overweight bons since the global financial crisis
Exxon aims to become a top lithium producer for electric vehicles with Arkansas drill operation
Markets :
UST 10y techs : ''So far the US 10 year bounces perfectly on the bigger trend line that has been in place since the surge in rates started back in May. If this is the topping out of rates, we need to see more frustration...Watch the 50 day and the longer term trend line closely. We also ask ourselves if this is a bigger head and shoulders formation in the making? 4.5% is the line in the sand level to the downside.''
SPX500 : one amazing fact is that the SPX has not made a new all time high in 2023, if this fails to happen over next 6weeks, this would be the first time since 2012, The NASDAQ's domination over Small Caps has never been greater (the 7's really),
USDJPY testing 1992 highs (went all the way to 160+ area - back in 1998 we hit 150 area before Mr Yen intervened)
EURCHF bottomed out 0.9500 area - chart below (slight Zew improvement too, shoul help further upside)
AI: a mega force driving returns
IMF on X: "Higher interest rates have exposed vulnerabilities in some banks, and many more would be at risk during a prolonged period of rate hikes. Read our new blog for more on how to avoid bad outcomes in the banking sector. #GFSR https://t.co/eVXG7PYYPI https://t.co/TQE1pfuNrk" / X (twitter.com)
A lot of folks talkng about this research so there it is : UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession (cnbc.com) >>> Fed to cut 275bps in 2024 and a terminal rate of 1.25 by 2025... >>> clearly IF, massive if, inflation was to be nearer to 2%, rates would be very (too) high...so as always path to inflation is the key ( a lot of if's and but's in these view, which is not too dissimilar to the view of MS, against this you have the likes of GS going for only -1- cut in Q4 2024)
Moderate Tories Believe Rishi Sunak's Reshuffle Shows He Is Embracing The Centre Ground (politicshome.com)
EURCHF - bottomed out around 0.9500 area
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