Mar 23, 20233 min read

Yellen, IAT / Powell inflation risk still there & stress in financial system / SNB +50bps / BoE next

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is not considering any plans to guarantee all bank deposits without congressional approval following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, she told senators >> this is what did the damage into the close yesterday..not Powell
FOMC +25bps, as expected, stuck between a rock and a hard place >> inflation still too high clearly, but financial conditions matter. SNB hiked 50bps this morning (they only meet quarterly), BoE should do 25bps minimum and Norway add 25bps too
Powell : small difference there, slowly peaking maybe, "ongoing increases" to "some additional policy firming may be appropriate", though the dots
Switzerland’s central bank raised its key interest rate by a half-percentage point and said the country’s bank crisis had ended
CITI: “This was the first week of [Citi credit card] data following the disruption within the financial sector, and we were curious if it might have had an impact on the consumer. It sure did. .. biggest decline in total retail spending .. since the pandemic began (April 2020).”
PacWest Bank seems to be the next one in the news - 20% of deposits withdrawn since January
Rishi Sunak hails Windsor Framework vote as 'a good deal for Northern Ireland'
WSJ: "Credit Suisse customers kept pulling deposits Thursday. Authorities moved to make more than $150 billion in additional liquidity available to the bank, Ms. Keller-Sutter, the finance minister, said" - that's not a small sum !
BlackRock took $5B out of its ESG etf, another bubbly thematic investment idea not working
ECB's job not yet done, bank must be bold and decisive. Inflation projections contain upside risks, wages may rise more strongly than assumed
"'A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends." - Warren Buffett
Nestlé says less than half of its mainstream food and drinks are considered ‘healthy’, good grief the negative swiss news keep on coming
The SEC issued crypto exchange Coinbase a Wells notice, warning the exchange that it identified potential violations of U.S. securities law

Markets :

CHF . there is a definite risk we will look back in 12-18months and this was the top of CHF strength - happy to have chat about it - let me know
USD softened again with lower UST yields, GOLD testing 2K again (more capital flows our of regional banks will strengthen #JPY and #XAU...)
Headwinds in the U.S economy on teh back of 'financial stress' will be deflationary over time!
All bout credit and U.S regional banks, #IAT etf is one you can follow, sentiment shifting slowly to 'sell the rallies', as/if/when regionals weaken