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Riksbank cut 50bps down to 2.75%, Norges hold, BoE next and FED later on, both of which likely to deliver the already priced in 25bps cut, might as well .. >>> following by hawkish statement & on hold for as while, most likely, presser will be key , as the UK, China, the US and others continue to spend spend and pump their economies #duration risk still Was all pretty clear early on yesterday... Confirmation : Trump wins landslide, The Triple Crown most likely (senate, popular vote and house.. ..with perhaps as much as 312 electoral votes!!!! and 72mio votes vs 67m for Kamala... ) >>> TrumpTrade (USD, BTC, TSLA, crypto higher, Russell etc, UST long-end much weaker, and VIX vols collapsed more than 20% (largest move in decade), perfect storm higher for risk in general (welcome) but USTs went down to an even bigger extent (in monetary terms), DAX suffered on local politics, while Trumps threat of much higher tariffs on China result in yet further stimulus overnight.. (and eventually if the US pushes too far, CHINA will devalue the Yuan, which would really piss Trump off..) Trump promised massive tax cuts, no cuts to entitlements, defence spending, lower mortgage and cc rates "immediately", educed deficits and inflation "on day 1", and mass exit of illegal migrants... All of those promises will obviously not be kept entirely, but in trying to do go in that direction, the biggest sacrifice will be soaring debt and inflation , he will keep at it, its all about making deals and financials results for him and his big tech friends, and clearly he has total control Uncertainty looms for Germany after Scholz fires finance minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner, coalition collapses (cannot be worse with Scholz out of the way?) , looks like Jörg Kukies in the frame >>> #EURCHF forming a long-term base around 0.9250-9400 area, see chart FT - The Democrats threw away a winnable election. Harris was the wrong candidate, and the consequences could be global Goldman Sachs discusses the climb in yields of longer-dated US Treasuries amid rising US fiscal debt.  While high fiscal debt does push up bond yields, Goldman Sachs highlights the development of demand-side factors, such as the rise in private sector savings, including the rise in corporate cash, which lift demand for US Treasuries CHINA tells banks to cut interbank deposit rates to boost growth Australia plans social media ban for under-16s Trump is Eyeing Iran Hawk Brian Hook as First Foreign Policy Pick, see below Yesterday... Who Is Israel Katz, Israel’s new defence minister? | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera and last night : Trump is Eyeing Iran Hawk Brian Hook as First Foreign Policy Pick 43 - You're Hired: America picks Donald Trump again - Overleveraged | Podcast on Spotify BlondeMoney Helen Thomas spot on again, totally nailed the prediction on the electoral college vote, can only recommend Uncertainty looms for Germany after Scholz fires finance minister, coalition collapses | News24 --- Next steps for Germany government as breakdown leaves Europe in limbo – Euractiv and Ampel-Ticker: Scholz-Berater Kukies wird neuer Finanzminister The Democrats threw away a winnable election Blame game starts now... Bernie Sanders: Democrats shouldn't be surprised middle class 'abandoned' its 'disastrous campaign' for Trump | Fortune Trump 2.0 will have a massive impact on Big Tech, AI, chips and more—in Silicon Valley and beyond | Fortune China Tells Banks to Cut Interbank Deposit Rates to Boost Growth - Bloomberg What Donald Trump's election win means for stocks, the economy, and trade Its already mostly done... The Dow soars 1,300 points after Donald Trump's election win From Jeff Bezos to Mark Cuban, business leaders react to Trump's win They all want their "financial" share, interest for their own good...All trump is about is financial rewards, deal, the daily news is all bluster! but it works with most countries.. SAXO Significant Yield Surge:  Long-duration Treasury yields, especially the 30-year and 10-year, are rising sharply in response to expectations of inflationary policies under Trump, such as tax cuts and increased spending. This has created a pronounced steepening in the yield curve. Technical Resistance and Market Implications:  The 10-year yield is approaching key resistance at 4.47%. A break above this level could lead to further selling in Treasuries and continued upward pressure on yields. Supply Pressure from Auctions:  A supply-heavy auction schedule, including $25 billion in 30-year bonds, is adding pressure. Typically, rising yields attract investors, but election-related uncertainty may limit demand, potentially worsening the sell-off. Fed’s Influence and Bear Steepening Risk:  Ahead of the FOMC meeting, traders are cautious about the Fed’s response to rising yields. If the Fed cuts rates without addressing long-term yield rises, a “bear steepening” effect could emerge, with long-term yields climbing despite short-term rate cuts Australia plans social media ban for under-16s - BBC News Is this not a little too late ?.. Climate change tipped to alter Swiss avalanche behviour by 2100 - SWI swissinfo.ch

Trump getting the triple crown by the looks, senate, house & popular vote.. and yet just about every pollsters out there said it was too close to call, neck and neck etc.. why bother listening to them ever...total waste of time.. .as we said yesterday, 4 possible outcome and in fact this one was the least expected by all those media specialist (experts), yet as we discussed recently, the market had begun to price a Trump victory, and now started to priced "the sweep" TrumpTrade overnight, TSLA UP, equities higher, Russell, BTC, yields up 10-15bps and USDollar higher, USDMXN up big and Chinese equity markets down, totally as you would expect >>> tariffs will be inflationary, FED will have real trouble justifying more cuts! lets see tomorrow then Trump : "I'm not going to start wars, I'm going to stop wars." FT- The US economic boom is a mirage. Its lopsided, brittle quality helps explain why so many Americans will cast votes in anger Mark Cuban said that after investing nearly $20 million in 85 startups on “Shark Tank,” he’s taken a net loss across all of those deals combined CNBC on X: "Trump addressed supporters in Florida, as the Republican led Harris in projected Electoral College votes in the presidential election. Neither Trump nor Harris has secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House. Full details: https://t.co/dkbw4V2Nw2 https://t.co/EPbSgpIj9h " / X US election latest: Trump declares victory; world leaders congratulate him; Harris yet to speak | US News | Sky News 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 on X: "Elon Musk's first day at the Department of Government Efficiency https://t.co/ZUO6eXWz6v " / X :-) The US economic boom is a mirage Boeing strike ends as union machinists approve new contract How astronauts vote from space Joe Rich #NoFarmersNoFood on X: "BREAKING - David Lammy’s Foreign Office among Government departments seeking discounts from independent schools for its diplomats after Labour’s VAT raid increases fees by 20%. https://t.co/HvsiUQpbDY " / X really?.. >>> will he be offered as reparations to Donald Trump for the insult of the Labour Party campaigning for Harris....?? 5 Reasons Why The Gold Rally Is Not Over Yet - VON GREYERZ Buy some and hold it... "safe-ly" Boris Johnson 'fired' from Channel 4's US election coverage

The U.S elections remains 50/50, Wisconsin the key it seems, please see key timing below for various results coming out tonight , could not be closer on polling, ''all down to turnout.. women vs young hulk hogan crowd it seems'', overheard on one of the TeeVee, IF result is close, it will undoubtedly be contested, using Musks personal Instagram-influencer machine to lead the charge, 3 or even 4 possible diff outcomes, all very different, if close and contested we get delays, see below Thread for possible outcomes (GS) Overnight : Chinese indices gained about 2% hopes of new stimulus announcements continued to support sentiment, all the way...Boeing ends strike, a 40% incr in wages over 4 years, not bad! RBA was unchanged, as expected, perhaps slightly less dovish, meanwhile the German coalition is really struggling for survival as the 3 parties struggle with the budget and the economy Put together by Saxo: Electoral College Dynamics 270 EC votes needed: Harris likely starts with 226 EC votes, Trump with 219. Use www.270towin.com  to track. Seven swing states: These 93 votes could tip the scale. Turnout is key. More younger voters and women voters coming out could be favourable for Harris. Important Election Times (in SGT) Exit polls embargo lifted at 6:00 AM SGT (Wednesday). Ballot processing starts early in several key states, but projections only come once polls close. Polling closing times for swing states in CET Georgia (GA): 1:00 North Carolina (NC): 1:30 Pennsylvania (PA): 2:00 Michigan (MI): 2:00 Wisconsin (WI): 3:00 Arizona (AZ): 3:00 Nevada (NV): 4:00 Close margins could trigger recounts, particularly in swing states with tight races. A recount could delay final results by several days. Simultaneous Global Events Carl Quintanilla on X: "Goldman has some potential reaction functions: 🇺🇸 Trump w/ Republican Sweep = 25% probability; S&P +3%   Trump w/ Divided Government = 30% probability; S&P +1.5% Harris w/ Democratic Sweep = 5% probability; S&P -3% Harris w/ Divided Government = 40% probability; S&P" / X US election could shape China’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus package: analysts | South China Morning Post Talen Stock Tumbles on Amazon Nuclear Power Deal Setback. Constellation, Vistra Down, Too. Australia's central bank keeps rates unchanged at 4.35% German minister makes budget concession in bid to save coalition | Reuters Climate change alters natural hazards in Swiss Alps - SWI swissinfo.ch Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sells Apple stock and has record cash

Harris tops Trump in Iowa in latest Des Moines Register poll, no matter how you slice it U.S payrolls were weaker, 20 central bank meetings including FED (Thursday) , BoE RBA and Norges, US elections and China's National People's Congress >>> markets got pretty long #USD, #BTC and short #duration lately on the #TrumpTrade so what out if Kamala makes it ! small reaction so far overnight, going into this week fairly light in risk, happy to reposition for either reaction in markets, and add to risk on a decent risk-off scenarion FT- Bankers, traders and investors are bracing themselves for a long stint of high volumes and increased volatility, particularly in bond and currency markets, ahead of Tuesday’s US presidential election.... ie for this potentially huge week, Mr market has bought a lot of vol to hedge / position itself in bonds, equity and FX markets Citi reports on divergent views on a range of issues between investors and policymakers/political analysts; investors appear to have already priced in a Trump win in the election , whereas political analysts, while seeing the odds as biased towards Trump, are more wary.  Warren Buffett slashes Apple stake as he boosts cash to record high. Berkshire’s stock-selling spree extends for eighth quarter, with $166bn dumped over the period US election imminent - JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump win Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, continues to de-risk now has $325 billion in cash (most of it in TBills) , more than the entire market cap of 477 companies in the S&P 500, and 1st quarter they did not buy back their own shares since 2018 Fund manager cash levels have dropped to 3.9%, which has triggered a sell signal for stocks according to BofA Analysts expectations for the Magnificent 7 earnings in 2025 have been slashed by nearly 3 percentage points Protests over Spain flood response interrupt king's visit to stricken Valencia suburb OPEC+ nations delay production increase by another month Moldova's pro-Europe President Maia Sandu claims victory in election runoff Traders braced for volatility and volume as US election night nears Carl Quintanilla on X: "JPMORGAN: 🇺🇸 “.. What is driving Harris’s nascent outperformance .. ? It is primarily women and older voters .. Harris is winning female Independents by 28-pts .. For older voters, Harris is winning women 63% to 28% and men by 47% to 45%. “.. Reasons for this shift may include https://t.co/GzoiX0ipmy " / X Warren Buffett slashes Apple stake as he boosts cash to record high Oil prices rise after Opec delays drilling increase; Ryanair profits fall on lower fares – business live Morning Bid: Clouds gather over 'Mag 7' earnings | Reuters Moldova's pro-Europe President Maia Sandu claims victory in election runoff Israel’s military leaders signal their work in Gaza and Lebanon is done. Will Netanyahu listen? Big Tech says AI spending spree will pay off. Wall Street is worried Ukraine updates: Germany's Baerbock back in Kyiv Indonesia's Prabowo looks to deepen Russian ties in first joint naval drills - Nikkei Asia Rachel Reeves suggests UK businesses can ‘absorb’ national insurance rise King Charles and Prince William's private estates 'making millions from public bodies' | UK News | Sky News Bob Elliott on X: "Losing the long-end of sovereign bond markets is the most important financial risk today. This weekend's DSR from @dampedspring is a must read for thinking through how to navigate this possibility ahead. And it is free for everyone: https://t.co/nBf87WwTpi " / X #longend, #duration is getting a lot of coverage these days... ahead of US election and, total debt already $36trn --- Steno Signals #124 - Something is WRONG in bond markets - Steno Research this guy also a good read and another example of focus on #duration UBS-Chefs meiden CS-Büros: Uetlihof, Seebach-Tower, no thanks – Inside Paradeplatz Protests over Spain flood response interrupt king's visit to stricken Valencia suburb

Swiss Inflation softer, remember the pretty large downward revision to the SNBs infl projections in Sep ? October CPI pushing projections even lower >>> as discussed recently, SNB will do 50bps in Dec (40bps priced in mind), CHF too strong... >>> when does Mr Market go back with the swiss carry trade ?... U.S. election down to the wire, poll shave 50/50, the outside bet from here on.. is Kamala win by a decent margin AAPL slight disappointment on guidance (again) but services a cash machine and pretty upbeat AMZN, 57% of AMZN r evenue is services that's pretty incredible too, growth or lack of growth in new products becoming an issue though Spain floodings: The extraordinary downpours were driven in part by higher temperatures in the Mediterranean, a largely enclosed sea whose warmth is a store of energy that can only be released via evaporation, creating the conditions for intense storms Donald Trump is promising big tariffs. Businesses are ready to hike prices UK Budget poses new challenge for public finances, Moody’s warns. Rating agency also says country still faces muted economic growth China Manufacturing Activity Picks Up as Stimulus Kicks In, Caixin PMI Shows. China tells carmakers to pause investment in EU countries backing EV tariffs , sources say Poland has started construction of the Eastern Shield on the border with Belarus and Russia, – Prime Minister Donald Tusk NVIDIA’s Major Customer – Super Micro Computer (SMCI) – Plunges As Its Accounting Firm Resigns After Citing Concerns Around A “Commitment To Integrity And Ethical Values” Lake Tahoe voters may hit vacation homes with a $3,000 tax as 44% of housing units are vacant most of the time , a sign many politicians are thinking about it around the world.. Israeli intel suggests Iran preparing major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days/AXIOS China Manufacturing Activity Picks Up as Stimulus Kicks In, Caixin PMI Shows - Caixin Global Exclusive-China tells carmakers to pause investment in EU countries backing EV tariffs, sources say Iran preparing major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days, Israeli intel suggests Bank of Japan likely to stay course with a rate hike in December or January, analysts say Yet... Japan opposition party chief: BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a year Nick Timiraos on X: "The core PCE index rose 0.25% in September. The 12-month rate was 2.7%. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates were both 2.3%. https://t.co/oahQdVWDKu " / X Lake Tahoe voters may hit vacation homes with a $3,000 tax | Fortune Choose Optimism | The Connection - Blackstone In the long run, it pays to be a market optimist Philoinvestor on X: "$AAPL Selling for $3.43trln. FY 2024 Net Income at $94bln, so ~34X Earnings. Yet no growth... In fact, PRODUCTS had a negative growth, saved by Services. https://t.co/U6irv0Nkzq " / X Apple services is $100 billion per year juggernaut but growth slowing phenomenal cash machine, excellent but no real growth He can do this.. Apple to pay $490m to settle claims it misled investors over sales in China | Apple | The Guardian Poland to begin construction of defensive lines on border with Russia and Belarus by end of 2024 UK Budget poses new challenge for public finances, Moody’s warns The UK's autumn budget: how does it affect traders? – The Armchair Trader Its not all that bad ? .. Rule changes risk bleak future for family-run farms Spain floodings: The extraordinary downpours were driven in part by higher temperatures in the Mediterranean, a largely enclosed sea whose warmth is a store of energy that can only be released via evaporation, creating the conditions for intense storms. Francisco Martín León, a meteorologist at global weather network Meteored, said the Mediterranean was acting as a “petrol can” by feeding water vapour — the fuel for rainfall — into the atmosphere. Scientists say that process has been exacerbated by climate change. “Then the fire that ignites it for us is a cold front or area of low pressure” that crashes into that humidity, as occurred this week, he said. In Spain the phenomenon is known as DANA, an acronym for a high-altitude isolated depression. Opinion | Jeff Bezos: The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media - The Washington Post Boeing dismantles diversity department, Bloomberg news reports | Reuters NVIDIA's Major Customer - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Plunges As Its Accounting Firm Resigns After Citing Concerns Around A "Commitment To Integrity And Ethical Values" Donald Trump's tariff plans have companies ready to hike prices Elon Musk Could Have US Citizenship Revoked If He Lied on Immigration Forms | WIRED Intra-Asia container shipping rates surge 15% amid pre-holiday demand spike

"Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending. Because that's the true tax. If you're not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you're paying for it in the form of inflation or borrowing." - Milton Friedman MSFT & META in short : big numbers still, guidance weaker and that is the key going forward, probably >>> MAG7 peak? worth lightening up on longs, SMCI story also worth following >>> lets see what AMZN and APPL reports next for a perhaps broader MAG7 view (NVDA much later in Nov) guidance key ECB's Schnabel pushing back against larger ECB rate cuts, and against the need to cut rates below neutral Spain : 1year worth of rain falling in 8hours - good lord Microsoft and Meta shares softer after earnings >>> HUGE AI spending, will take time to deliver , and nuclear power takes years to develop for data centers.. & slower user growth (MSFT), “significant acceleration” in AI related costs (META) Northern slammed as 'unreliable' as bosses admit they use FAX MACHINES!! UK budget was a big LABOUR budget, big and bold in many ways (we can all argue where taxes should go up and to who..), sets framework for next many years, since the country voted for them one would think it's not much of a problem, sure enough the opposition will pinpoint all the negatives, that's their jobs Lebanon’s Mikati says hopes for ceasefire with Israel in ‘coming hours or days’ Chinese EV maker BYD’s quarterly sales overtook Tesla’s for the first time China’s economy seems on the mend in Oct, manuf PMI back in expansion, services PMI slightly weaker but still in expansion mode, comp PMI picks up from prev month The ECB's monetary policy: towards price stability ( europa.eu ) BOJ keeps rates steady, says overseas risks receding | Reuters Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Good new piece by Zongyuan Liu on the urgent need for China to rebalance its economy towards a greater role for domestic consumption, along with the structural difficulties China faces in doing so. https://t.co/XkdphxMGSr via @ForeignAffairs" / X Chinese EV maker BYD's quarterly sales overtook Tesla's for the first time Spain floods: How British woman trapped in car managed to escape chest-high waters - 'it was just like a disaster movie' | UK News | Sky News Polymarket's pro-Trump election predictions aren't so surprising when you look at the rest of the site Swiss central bank posts CHF62.5bn profit - SWI swissinfo.ch Autumn Budget key points: Government spending watchdog says Budget will contribute to inflation ( ft.com ) Chris Giles on X: "So - one of my new roles at the FT is leading a new monetary policy service (launching soon) This is our assessment of the UK Budget https://t.co/ucaEZyraic " / X Meta earnings recap: 3Q24 revenue hits record US$40.6bn amid concern over slower user growth --- Meta, Microsoft lift AI spending, worrying Wall Street ahead of Amazon results | The Business Standard (Bloomberg) -- Meta Platforms Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg will ramp up heavy investments in AI and other futuristic technologies, continuing a years-long tug-of-war between the company’s long-term bets and the core advertising business that provides the vast majority of Meta’s revenue.  Zuckerberg warned investors Wednesday that Meta will continue to spend significantly on infrastructure and other projects like the metaverse and AI-powered glasses, efforts he believes are core to the company’s future. That will be supported by the ads business, which isn’t generating the kind of momentum Wall Street expected. Morning Bid: Clouds gather over 'Mag 7' earnings MicroStrategy moves toward raising $42bn for bitcoin - Moneyweb South Korea’s Chip Production Falls for First Time in 14 Months - Bloomberg Middle East latest: 'Countdown has begun': Israel warns new Hezbollah leader after spate of killings | World News | Sky News Lebanon’s Mikati says hopes for ceasefire with Israel in ‘coming hours or days’ Dhanteras delight: RBI says 102-ton gold shifted to India - Times of India Trudeau 'safe' from being toppled after backing by one party Ray Dalio concerned about America postelection: 'Both candidates worry me' ( cnbc.com ) Northern slammed as 'unreliable' as bosses admit they use FAX MACHINES ( yahoo.com ) I mean come on.. Trafigura Faces $1.1 Billion Hit in Mongolia After Fraud Probe - Bloomberg Super Micro Computer Stock Plummets After Accounting Firm Resigns ( yahoo.com )

Q3 earnings downgrades have been significant, JPMorgan says >>> when growth slows, you buy value Citadel CEO Ken Griffin expects the race to the White House will be close, but Donald Trump will ultimately win. It will be tight, it will come down to 4-5 of the smaller states, Wisconsin has been mentioned as key, sweep either side unlikely (as per polls). US Labor Market: clearly cooling (JOLTS) #MOVE index (bond vols) is on 1y highs ahead of US election The BIS is debating whether to shut down a pilot cross-border payments platform after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin identified the underlying technology as a tool to circumvent sanctions and potentially undermine the dollar’s dominance in the global financial system FT-Why Europe’s car crisis is mostly made in China , ''VW lost the tech race and china started top export deflation...'' Signs of revolt against Ishiba emerging within LDP “We must implement all existing and new policies, make effective efforts in the last two months, and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals for the year,” Xi Jinping told a study session for senior party officials on Tuesday." Swiss KOF indicator loses 5pts in October to 99.5 (Sep : 104.5), SNB cuts again soon The 10y UST yields at 4.34% - long-end is up 100bps, 30y mortgage rate now 7.10%, bond vigilantes told Fed they made a big mistake..data has remained strong, AND issuing tons of Tbills earlier in year (to not upset long-end) IS inflationary - bad plan from Janet.. what now? issue more TBills?... >>> update : markets pricing in about 30bps of ECB cuts in Dec, slightly down SPX 5850/5925 area resistance still, bears will need a break sub 5725 area to see forced sellers coming in Q3 earnings downgrades have been significant, JPMorgan says By Investing.com Budget 2024: What is it and how does it affect me? - BBC Newsround The Return of Bond Vigilantes - Paradigm Shift ( fliphtml5.com ) The, as always, excellent Steen, shares his thoughts, well worth a read, get in touch with him! Convexity Maven - 2024 Election Special Bond traders "believe the range of outcomes for this general election is much wider than all other elections for which we have records (1988)...The market is pricing an 18bps rate movement on the days immediately after the election:" Harley Bassman SNB Might Need to Cut Interest Rates Again, Schlegel Says ( yahoo.com ) Why Europe’s car crisis is mostly made in China ( ft.com ) Xi Jinping urges Chinese officials to make all-out effort to hit annual growth targets | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Signs of revolt against Ishiba emerging within LDP - The Japan Times BIS Debates Ending Project Eyed by Putin to Undermine Dollar - SWI swissinfo.ch UBS earnings Q3 2024 ( cnbc.com ) all banks had good earnings (expected..) HSBC and StanChart: Record Wealth Income Fuels Profit Growth ( finews.asia ) Alphabet's AI investments boost cloud sales, lifts maturing ad business | Reuters Volkswagen Q3 2024 results ( cnbc.com ) AMD earnings report Q3 2024 ( cnbc.com ) AI not saving the day after all Inflation is down, but the middle class remains under pressure ( cnbc.com ) Got to stop printing an pumping >>> reduce FED balance-sheet to slow things/demand down, it will weaken stock market but one can't have it both ways Steve Bannon released from prison - POLITICO Karl Rove: Donald Trump will win White House ( thehill.com ) Helping Kamala Harris, Mike Johnson Vows to Kill Obamacare ( nymag.com ) Elon Musk, Trump allies say tariff plans could cause economic pain ( cnbc.com ) terrible scenes in Spain Spain floods: 51 dead after torrential rain in Valencia region - BBC News Gold Climbs to Fresh Record With Focus on US Election and Data ( yahoo.com ) Own it, don't trade, still World War III Has Already Begun, JP Morgan Boss Says - Newsweek

China mulls approving fresh fiscal package worth over ¥10 trillion next week (more liquidity), metals, crypto, eq.. >>> as mentioned before ''China will continue to ''pump'' for as long as it takes to bring back the economy to where they want it to be''... #duration #longend risk together with.. 10y UST up (Trump Trade) vs Crude much lower yesterday again >> the kind of disconnect that tends not to last for long (then again this time may be different!),  so far, confirmation bonds been all about U.S elections & the TrumpTrade (which could also obviously unwind at least partly if/when Harris wins)..what happens to yields if TrumpTrade is worth 45% GDP with 3-4% inflation, long-end could end up a 7%+ Mega caps earnings up next, VIX at highest levels since early Sep The IMF raises Spanish growth to 2.9% for 2024 compared to the meager eurozone U.S election update : polls broadly speaking a sweep is 50/50, a very different outcome to gridlock, betting polls about 50/50 Trump vs Harris, huge factor will be turnout Biden finalizes curbs on US investing in China chip, AI tech L ast 5 years, the US National Debt has increased by 56%, moving from $22.9 trillion up to $35.8 trillion #EURUSD : markets beginning to refocus on EURO downside, last time EURO went through parity in 2022 it was about monetary policy, this time it 'may' be about policy and the timid reaction with Ukraine, and the eventual consequences for Europe's growth model #Germany Volkswagen plans major layoffs , to shut at least three German plants, works council head says CNBC Daily Open: Stocks are entering the hottest period of the year 2024 United States presidential election betting odds: Trump maintains lead (Oct. 28 update) ( msn.com ) The IMF raises Spanish growth to 2.9% for 2024 compared to the meager eurozone ( msn.com ) China flags more fiscal stimulus for economy, leaves out key details on size ( msn.com ) Biden finalizes curbs on US investing in China chip, AI tech ( yahoo.com ) Why Everything You Think You K–Merryn Talks Money – Apple Podcasts 'Rest is politics' and podcast like these keep me busy walking the dog Trump’s Plan For Power – The Rest Is Politics: US – Apple Podcasts The west underestimates North Korea at its peril ( ft.com ) Explainer: Why Switzerland remains a ‘big buyer’ of Russian gold   - SWI swissinfo.ch Russia Can't Plug Its Fiscal Deficit With Savings Forever ( foreignpolicy.com ) China Jan-Sept gold consumption slides 11% as high prices deter buying appetite | Reuters Swiss president backs lifting re-export ban on arms to Ukraine - SWI swissinfo.ch Israel at war day 388: What is happening in Gaza, Lebanon? | Israel News - The Jerusalem Post ( jpost.com ) ‘This Is an Escalation’ – Ukraine at War Update for Oct. 29 ( kyivpost.com ) Volkswagen plans major layoffs, to shut at least three German plants, works council head says ( msn.com ) Boeing to raise up to $24.3 bln to shore up finances, stave off downgrade | Reuters Trump accuses Taiwan of stealing U.S. chip industry on Joe Rogan podcast ( cnbc.com ) Glencore Sustainability Report 2023 Dan Niles on X: "$GOOGL reports Tuesday, Wednesday is $META and $MSFT and Thursday is $AMZN and $AAPL. The ordering of reports I think is important with Google results setting expectations On Tuesday for many of the quarterly reports later in the week. $GOOGL Google’s stock dropped 5% on 7/24" / X Robinhood offers 2024 election bets on Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris ( qz.com )

Week ahead : Crude lower #brent here (big picture chart) - big 5 Techs earnings week (APPL, AMZN MSFT, Meta and Google), UST 10y yields jumped another 15-20bps last week, 4.25%+, mainly driven by stronger growth expectations (as often debated, FED didn't need to do 50bps..and that's what the bond market has been saying since..yields up 50+bps since Fed 'pivoted'), not inflation exp (higher real yields) >>> U.S house prices, JOLTS, GDP data, China PMI, PCE, and BoJ decision, U.S payrolls and ISM...and UK budget Donald Trump holds rally at iconic New York venue - as Kamala Harris hits must-win state, Elon seemed a little 'high' yesterday? Saxo : Red sweep ? 10y UST yields could hit 5% Blue sweep ? Yields may dip to 3.6% but climb above 4% long-term amid fiscal woes >>> Blue sweep is pretty unlikely (Senate) so the probability distribution very skewed overall Moody's on France "The fiscal deterioration that we have already seen is beyond our expectations and stands in contrast w/govts in similarly rated countries that are tending to consolidate their public finances in the current environment GS: High market concentration (near a 100-year peak) adds idiosyncratic risk, with a projected 10-year annualized return of 3% (baseline) Healthcare just closed at the lowest levels since 2011 relative to S&Ps , value there finally Elon Musk could (eee...will) reap a whopping tax break if he joins a Trump administration Russia raises interest rate to 21% , the highest level in more than 2 decades. South Korea's president raised the possibility of supplying Ukraine with weapons as North Korea allegedly sends troops to support Russia’s aggression . Alleging ‘Russian special operation,’ Georgian president calls for protests over disputed election SCMP: " China is recording an early surge in parcel shipments as the Singles’ Day shopping season – the country’s largest annual consumer event – kicked off earlier than usual." possibly good news for consumption! Volkswagen AG workers in Germany will pause production on Monday to join rallies about the automaker’s plans for unprecedented factory closures in the country Iran weighs its options after Israeli strike exposes military vulnerabilities The problem with the Trump trade ( ft.com ) the risk is that a fair bit of the Trump trade is priced in (but...very hard to tell-quantify.. UK Gilts moved 100bps on Truss..) anything goes really, best go low in risk into elections and use extremes to fade, no clear outcome, too close, market focuses on Dec fed meeting instead Althea Spinozzi on X: "🔴Red sweep? 10y UST yields could hit 5% 🔵Blue sweep? Yields may dip to 3.6% but climb above 4% long-term amid fiscal woes. Had a great discussion on these scenarios with @annaedwardsnews and @GuyJohnsonTV on @BloombergTV. 🔗Watch the full interview: https://t.co/Bg4l9bk4He   https://t.co/O80zYk3mVm " / X Moody's lowers France's outlook on budget fears, maintains rating ( msn.com ) US election latest: Donald Trump holds rally at iconic New York venue - as Kamala Harris hits must-win state | US News | Sky News What Trump or Harris as president would mean for Switzerland ( swissinfo.ch ) Volkswagen weighs wage cuts, bonus reductions, Handelsblatt reports | Reuters Mercedes, BMW and Porsche have suffered sliding sales in China and now face a fight to defend their home turf in Europe from ambitious Chinese rivals Russian central bank hikes benchmark rate to 21%, highest since 2003 ( msn.com ) Ukraine war latest: Russia transporting North Korean troops to front lines in civilian trucks, military intelligence says ( yahoo.com ) October 27, 2024 Middle East war news | CNN Alleging ‘Russian special operation,’ Georgian president calls for protests over disputed election ( msn.com ) Japan's government in flux after election gives no party majority ( msn.com ) Can silver become more precious than gold? Here's what Vedanta's Anil Agarwal thinks - The Economic Times ( indiatimes.com ) >>> Only 0.5% of global financial assets are invested in gold—approx. $ 3.6 trillion, representing 43,000T. If gold investments were to return to the 1980 level of 2.7% of financial assets (as shown in the table below), it would require 230,000 tonnes of gold at today’s prices Five US Banks Face Billions In Losses As Silver's Price Spike Hits Short Sellers Hard: Report ( yahoo.com ) South Korean president raises possibility of supplying Ukraine with arms ( msn.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 It's easy to see why many BRICS countries are wary of seeking an alternative to the dollar. The nine-nation group consists of 5 surplus economies and 4 deficit economies, with surpluses in 2023 collectively amounting to... https://t.co/wzF6K9Mtyl via @scmpnews" / X China counts on sales season to coax cautious consumers into spending spree | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Elon Musk could get huge tax break working for Trump | Fortune Volkswagen weighs wage cuts, bonus reductions, Handelsblatt reports | Reuters

EURUSD from top to bottom of range relatively quickly (policy divergence) and markets beginning to take a breather on the 'TrumpTrade' into month-end ''maybe'' : 10's UST 4.25 the 'yield resistance', USDJPY 152-153 area resistance and SPX500 5850 (industrial earnings were weak, TSLA saved the day) , weekend risk : most airlines have cancelled flights to and from Iran, Irag, Lebanon etc Next week BoJ meeting, UK budget, big Techs earnings and of course final days in the U.S election campaign Fmr. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh says he was puzzled by the Fed's 50 basis-point cut. "The central bank needs to be very clear about its reaction function, be clear about its goals, and not look like it's lurching - that's what put us in the mess we have," EU PMI : thank you the periphery saved EU data, Germany and France weak Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic may reduce the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease, according to a new analysis of electronic health records GS : there is mounting evidence that “US exceptionalism” remains intact, and as such, the risks for the US dollar are skewed to the upside, even as its baseline view is for a gradual depreciation.  As to the impact of election outcomes, a Republican sweep is the most favourable to the $$ Tesla stock soars 20% thanks to an earnings beat and Elon Musk's 'best guesses' and The WSJ reports that Elon Musk has been in “regular contact” with Vladimir Putin since late 2022 China's stimulus measures not enough, Yellen and IMF chief economist say European natural gas prices rise to highest level this year as supply tighten s. Whats going on? U.S : (headline number is one thing) but Continuing jobless claims, highest since November 2021 Polymarket says mystery Trump bettor is French national As Israel ramps up war on multiple fronts, nobody knows what Netanyahu’s endgame is ( msn.com ) BRICS summit: Putin is questioned over Donald Trump and Ukraine war | News UK Video News | Sky News Airlines suspend flights as Middle East tensions rise ( msn.com ) Squawk Box on X: "Fmr. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh says he was puzzled by the Fed's 50 basis-point cut. "The central bank needs to be very clear about its reaction function, be clear about its goals, and not look like it's lurching - that's what put us in the mess we have," he says: https://t.co/BYT5XYTUfd " / X Japan election to test ruling party, may bring uncertainty ( deccanherald.com ) China's stimulus measures not enough, Yellen and IMF chief economist say ( msn.com ) Europe's Contraction Led by Germany, France - Bloomberg (1) Stephen Stapczynski on X: "European natural gas prices rise to highest level this year as supply tightens Whats going on? 🇳🇴 Unplanned Norway outage 🇺🇸 New LNG supply from US/elsewhere delayed 🇪🇬 Egypt flipped from exporter to importer 🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal ending 🥶 And winter is starting https://t.co/HCG8U9XLfP " / X New homes sales hit highest level in more than a year ( qz.com ) though now Mortgage rates back over 7.25% Rachel Reeves: My fiscal rules will provide the stability on which growth depends ( ft.com ) Boris Johnson’s memoir Unleashed flops as sales slump despite ‘£2m advance’ | The Independent E-bike fires: What you need to know and how to stay safe - BBC News Novo Nordisk's Ozempic may reduce risk of Alzheimer's disease: study ( cnbc.com ) Tesla stock soars 20% on Q3 earnings beat, Elon Musk's 'best guesses' ( qz.com ) (2) Republicans against Trump on X: "🚨The WSJ reports that Elon Musk has been in “regular contact” with Vladimir Putin since late 2022. According to this report, the Russian dictator asked Musk to deny Starlink services to Taiwan as a favor to Xi Jinping. https://t.co/ufK0gOHevi " / X Polymarket says mystery Trump bettor is French national | Reuters

BRICS unveils a mock-up of its long-anticipated currency. The summit in Kazan sees leaders embracing a model poised to challenge the current economic order, which asset will back the new currency ? gold, silver..? UK's Reeves to announce major change to fiscal rules releasing £50bn for spending and UK inflation falling faster than expected, says Bank of England’s Bailey ECB expectations, the pendulum moves with PMI's (French weaker, Germany slightly higher, #EURIBORS key for euro short-term direction) >>> PMI weaker no surprise, nex week we get Q3 GDP and inflation which will be most likely less supportive for the '50bps cuts in Dec' CFTC : Across the major US equity index futures, the buy-side’s net long position is now nearly the greatest it’s been at any point since the financial crisis. At the same time, the gross shorts held by the buy-side are nearly the lowest they’ve been at any point since 2010 - more dets below BOC cuts 50bp cut  yesterday,  in line with exp , following cuts in June, July, and September  >>> another 50bp in Dec priced + 3x 25bps next year >>> Trudean also in big political trouble.. Warren Buffett isn't endorsing anybody or anything — so don't believe the AI deepfakes. Berkshire Hathaway said Buffett does not and will not endorse investment products or political candidates The DOJ has sent a letter to Elon Musk's super PAC, warning that his daily $1m giveaway to registered voters in swing states might violate federal laws, CNN reports Denmark becomes the first country in the world to tax unrealized capital gains on crypto, starting January 1, 2026. The tax on unrealized capital gains is 42%, whaoo BRICS Currency Unveiled A New Era in Global Finance - Financial News ( financial-news.co.uk ) BRICS summit: Members discuss financial plans as Putin calls for USD alternative, false currency claims spread - Arabian Business: Latest News on the Middle East, Real Estate, Finance, and More Ny rapport fra Skattelovrådet: Kryptoaktiver bør fremover lagerbeskattes Skatteministeriet ( skm.dk ) The website of the Danish Ministry of State calls it ‘The Tax Law Council's recommendations’ It goes on to say: ‘At the beginning of 2025, the Minister of Taxation will propose a bill’ If this goes through, it will have effect ‘at the earliest from 1 January 2026’ Middle East latest: Israel claims six Al Jazeera reporters are Gaza militants; Beirut hit by intense airstrikes | World News | Sky News Lukashenko says North Korean troops fighting for Putin would be ‘escalation’ of Ukraine war – POLITICO Reeves to announce major change to fiscal rules releasing £50bn for spending | Economics | The Guardian Investors scramble for tax free options before potential CGT hike – The Armchair Trader UK inflation falling faster than expected, says Bank of England’s Bailey; Reeves to announce debt rule changes at IMF – business live ( msn.com ) Warren Buffett doesn't anybody or anything — don't believe AI deepfakes ( qz.com ) Georgia secretary of state's office says it fended off cyberattack on voting website | Reuters Japan warns against 'one-sided' currency moves as yen slides | Reuters Tesla Delivers Robust Q3 Earnings As Musk’s Firm Returns To Profit Growth—Stock Rockets 12% ( forbes.com ) Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk to FDA: Crack down on knockoff weight loss drugs ( qz.com ) Striking Boeing machinists reject new contract offer ( qz.com ) Cabinet minister who is quitting voices confidence in Trudeau | CTV News Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 SCMP: "Li Daokui, a professor at Tsinghua University, described local governments’ arrears in accounts payable to enterprises as “shocking”, saying they owed companies and employees an amount equivalent to 10 per cent of GDP." https://t.co/5AshHqsh62 via @scmpnews" / X Emerging no more: the era of dynamic markets is dawning - Financial Times - Partner Content by Standard Chartered ( ft.com ) Across the major US equity index futures, the buy-side’s net long position is now nearly the greatest it’s been at any point since the financial crisis. At the same time, the gross shorts held by the buy-side are nearly the lowest they’ve been at any point since 2010. The CFTC’s CoT data shows that, as of the close on Tuesday, October 15, the net long position held by Asset Managers + Leveraged Funds in S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, and Russell 2000 futures is nearly the biggest it’s been at any point since 2010 at over 21% of total open interest. • This compares to an average net long position since 2010 amounting to 10% of total open interest. • The buy-side’s net long position is also much greater now than it was at this point ahead of the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections. Further, the gross shorts held by Asset Managers + Leveraged Funds in S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, and Russell 2000 futures are nearly the smallest they’ve been at any point since 2010 at under 26% of total open interest. • This compares to average gross shorts since 2010 amounting to 36% of total open interest. • The gross shorts held by the buy-side are also much smaller now than they were at this point ahead of the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential elections.

ECB officials talking bringing rates below 'neutral', markets pricing 150bps or so cuts to end of 2025, dragging EURUSD lower (chart), Israel is reportedly preparing operations against Iran, BoC expected to cut rates this afternoon, 4th successive time, while the 'TrumpTrade' keeps on trucking, eq, usd, metals, crypto higher vs UST bonds lower #duration (PTJ interview below too) and Fed speakers are already mentioning “modest” cuts ahead and “delay is not a bad thing.”, on the back of still strong and resilient data >>> Trump talks tariffs on EU and others, on a sweep, DAX, Stocks50 could drop sharply on a knee jerk reaction, fact is it could and will most likely be volatile, Yellen speaks at Treasury Dept today (she will try to 'stabilize' bonds) ECB Sources: Policy makers are starting to debate whether rates will have to go below neutral rate in the current easing cycle; sources stressed that any consensus was still a long way off but it marks a significant shift in policymaking debate; weak growth could drag down prices; there’s a risk inflation undershoots target; some policymakers want a greater acknowledgment of downside risks Paul Tudor Jones “All roads lead to inflation ''  - 5mins interview below Jamie Dimon as Treasury Secretary under Kamala Harris? IMF lifts US (and UK) growth forecast but cuts euro zone and China #XAG long overshadowed by #GOLD , is slowly but surely taking center stage, in this hungry world looking for safe/hard assets and critical materials ECB starting to debate if rates have to go below neutral ( rte.ie ) China to Inject up to 1 Trillion Yuan into State Banks to Power Growth - Caixin Global Paul Tudor Jones: We are going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about our spending | Watch ( msn.com ) Gold and silver prices surge to new records as haven demand mounts ( msn.com ) Silver better than gold for investment? Silver prices cross Rs 1 lakh mark! - Times of India ( indiatimes.com ) IMF lifts US growth forecast but cuts euro zone and China ( rte.ie ) A 'tidal wave' of LNG supply will reshape global markets, says RBC Capital ( cnbc.com ) How Malaysia is wooing overseas investors - Financial Times - Partner Content by Standard Chartered ( ft.com ) BRICS Summit 2024: Key moments from day 1 of historic Kazan talks - Arabian Business: Latest News on the Middle East, Real Estate, Finance, and More Stock market today: Indexes end mixed as traders assess rate path and brace for more earnings ( msn.com ) Starbucks (SBUX) Suspends 2025 Guidance as Same-Store Sales Drop - Bloomberg Deadly E.coli outbreak linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounder in US | US News | Sky News Facebook suspends accounts tracking Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk's private jets ( qz.com ) Politics latest news: Starmer: Trump relationship not damaged by election interference row ( telegraph.co.uk ) Elon Musk says people should have more kids despite the costs | Fortune Jamie Dimon would consider Treasury Secretary role under Kamala Harris ( qz.com ) Middle East latest: Israel issues warning to next city to be attacked; rebuilding Gaza could take 350 years, UN warns | World News | Sky News 'Highly likely' North Korean soldiers supporting Russia in war against Ukraine ( msn.com ) Automated parking robots are the latest luxury real estate amenity ( cnbc.com ) Rudy Giuliani must give apartment, Mercedes, watches to defamation victims ( cnbc.com )