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Week ahead : GOLD new highs, Silver catching up nicely!, quiet start this week in terms on and earnings (big techs all reporting between 29th and 31st Oct!... Market focus remains on China, will it work or won't it ? (China will add more and more if they see markets not reacting the way they want, no turning back, all-in over time..) awaiting to see how Israel is/will respond to Iran, not long till the U.S election (#duration the one to watch as both side will spend, Trump spend bigly). In the UK, we have 'the' budget on 30th October to focus minds, and overall ECB turned/is turning pretty dovish preparing for more cuts as long-term inflation is under check and heading towards target >>>> Trump trade on the up...bonds/duration lower, stocks up, crypto up, gold (China, ME also a play int here clearly)... Mining stocks are the next beast to (continue to) own, after physical bullion #GDX #SILJ Inflation in Japan fell to 2.5% YoY in September from 3% a month earlier Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters. But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win /Been talked about last couple of weeks >>> Reddit bros pushed GME up more than 1000% in 2021. Moving President Election Polymarket (or anyone else for that matter) a few points is child's play The next winner of the AI boom is also one of its biggest problems. Data centers could consume up to 9% of electricity in the U.S. by the end of the decade Pro EU rally in Tbilisi as Georgia faces crunch election to decide political future, Moldova EU votes in the balance Why the west should be paying more attention to the gold price rise ( ft.com ) Keir Starmer flies into controversy and Japan goes to the polls ( ft.com ) China cuts benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points ( cnbc.com ) Pro EU rally in Tbilisi as Georgia faces crunch election to decide political future ( msn.com ) Moldova voters appear to back EU membership by thin margin - provisional results - BBC News Moldova president condemns ‘assault’ on democracy by ‘foreign forces’ as EU vote hangs in balance | Moldova | The Guardian Musk offers voters $1 million a day to sign PAC petition backing the Constitution. Is that legal? ( msn.com )     Markets starting to price in a Trump election win – The Armchair Trader Israel's military says it attacked Hezbollah's intelligence HQ in Beirut ( msn.com ) Ukraine-Russia live: Leaked video shows North Korean soldiers being kitted out for war, Kyiv claims ( msn.com ) US investigates leaked documents alleging Israel plans to attack Iran | US military | The Guardian Data centers are AI's next winner — and a climate change problem ( qz.com ) A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market - WSJ Britain’s Brexit divorce bill hits £24bn – and there’s still billions to pay EU | The Independent Hong Kong to Bring In Measures to Boost Gold Trading, Chan Says – BNN Bloomberg 'buy and hold physical'.. Boeing strike could end soon after breakthrough deal ( qz.com ) Brazil's Lula cancels BRICS trip after minor brain hemorrhage from fall | Reuters

Markets : China's PBOC launched a swap facility designed to boost their equity market, GDP was slowest swince early 2023 (hence all the action lately, they will keep doing it till they achieved what they need-want), Netflix was a beat, GOLD new highs $2700 (irrespective of higher UST yields and stronger USD lately..), UK retail sales up Gold has quietly outperformed all year, up almost 40% last 12mos, steadily gaining value despite the gyrations in bond yields or inflation expectations #GDX got room and eventually #XPT #XAG and #SILJ will catch up #PLAT Platinum is 30 times more rare than gold PM Modi to attend BRICS Summit in Russia with China's Xi also around next week Druck's interview below - well worth 20mins of your time $500B was added to the national debt in just the last 3 weeks … half a trillion in just 3 WEEKS >>> U.S govt out of control, elections! Intrum Europe's biggest debt collector, said on Friday it will file for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection... 'oh the irony!' JPMorgan Chase is winning the AI banking race — and its lead is getting bigger. JP Morgan says the financial markets are pricing in a Donald Trump victory and the possibility of a Congressional Sweep - indeed (though it could all go ''LizzTruss way'', beware what you wish for, volatile it will be, in everyway going into Dec) >>> #duration under pressure UST's The ECB said they are expecting inflation to rise again before declining to target next year ..Christine talked just about any possibilities of what may or may not happen.. Nearly 11,000 North Korean Troops In Russia Preparing To Enter The Fight Says Ukraine’s Spy Boss UK Treasury hints at debt rule change to fund major projects PM Modi to attend BRICS Summit in Russia with China's Xi also around. Here's what's on agenda - The Economic Times ( indiatimes.com ) GYOW 3.0 - 20" Brand | Wayfair ( youtube.com ) Stan Druckenmiller on Fed Policy, Election, Bonds, Nvidia - well worth listening to Intrum seeks U.S. bankruptcy protection to restructure $4.7 bln net debt | Reuters You jut couldn't make this up... ECB’s Lagarde: ‘We’re breaking the neck of inflation’ after cutting interest rates – as it happened ( msn.com ) Treasury hints at debt rule shift to fund major projects - BBC News Japan top FX diplomat says recent yen moves 'one-sided' in fresh warning | Reuters Donald Trump's mass deportations could 'decimate' U.S. food supply ( qz.com ) Janet Yellen goes after Donald Trump in calling high tariffs 'deeply misguided' ( qz.com ) ...more inflation is not what US consumers and FED want Turns out we’ll see a big Jack Smith document dump before the election - Live Updates - POLITICO Hezbollah vows to escalate war with Israel ( msn.com ) Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky says invitation to join Nato is ‘only way’ to end Putin’s war ( msn.com ) China's Q3 GDP hits weakest pace since early 2023, backs calls for more stimulus | Reuters JPMorgan Chase is winning the AI banking race ( qz.com ) Nearly 11,000 North Korean Troops In Russia Preparing To Enter The Fight Says Ukraine's Spy Boss ( twz.com ) AWS CEO says employees unhappy with 5-day office mandate can leave ( cnbc.com )

Amazon is joining Google and Microsoft in going big on nuclear power . While the AI boom has boosted revenues for major tech companies, it's also fueling huge demand for energy Sparks fly as Kamala Harris does first-ever Fox interview Today focus : ECB top deliver 25bps cut, priced in, all about guidance and tone of the presser , China pumping more into property market, U.S jobless claims, retail sales, IP and Philly, Fed Goolsbee and Netflix earnings, Strong NYSE breadth says liquidity is plentiful. Nearly 38,000 UK jobs are set to be created across the UK after a total of £63 billion of investment was announced around Monday’s International Investment Summit China boosts funds for housing projects to support embattled sector. FT-China is turning Japanese - at least that's what the bond market is whispering >>> has chinese luxury and high end brand sales dynamics possibly changed for 'ever', quite possibly Harris clashes with Fox as she tries to peel away some GOP voters | CNN Politics Tim Walz Was Expected to Shore Up Minnesota. Trump is Gaining on Harris - Newsweek It's 50/50.. US election 2024: Four takeaways from Harris's combative first Fox interview - BBC News ECB set for second straight rate cut as euro zone economy ails | Reuters If you’re so happy, why are you buying so much gold? ( ft.com ) Coz Gold makes you happy Stanley Druckenmiller Warns of Fed Policy Risks Amid Market "Melt-Up ( yahoo.com ) This Is About As Bearish As Oil Has Been Since the 2008 Financial Crisis | OilPrice.com Ukraine-Russia latest: Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ includes joining Nato as Australia pledge 49 Abrams tanks ( msn.com ) Middle East latest: Israel fires at peacekeeper tower in Lebanon, UN says | World News | Sky News International Investment Summit ‘secures £63bn and 38,000 jobs for UK’ ( businesscloud.co.uk ) China is turning Japanese ( ft.com ) Why is Germany shooting its own stagnating economy in the foot? | Simon Nixon | The Guardian Amazon is joining Google, Microsoft on nuclear power for AI ( qz.com ) BHP iron ore output beats, copper production edges up on better grades at Escondida By Reuters ( investing.com ) Nestle misses sales forecast, to streamline organisation | Reuters Higher debt, share buybacks near highs..was a mistake all along TSMC bullish on outlook as Q3 profit beats forecasts on AI boom | Reuters French cement maker Lafarge to face trial on terrorism funding charges | Reuters Donald Trump crypto project World Liberty Financial crashes on day 1 ( qz.com ) >>>> In the fine print it notes that the ‘token’ is not transferable and is locked in the wallet, so you cannot withdraw until this ‘scheme’ sees fit to allow it. Read the small print! Kriegs-Ultimatum an Putin: Merz will eine 180-Grad-Wende der NATO ( msn.com ) Switzerland further tightens sanctions against Russia - SWI swissinfo.ch

U.S election polls : it is literally 50/50 In its annual World Energy Outlook, IEA heralds the arrival of the "Age of Electricity" (following the Age of Oil and the Age of Coal). It sees power demand growing faster than it previously anticipated, while fossil fuel consumption declines faster. UK inflation down, will support early/further rate cut(s) AMSL : the first major semiconductor company to release results for Q3 and one of the most valuable technology companies in Europe, had a bit of a shocker, weak guidance Brian Moynihan, BofA CEO, discusses the state of the post-pandemic consumer /Video Credit spreads are now at their lowest levels since both market peaks in 2021 and during the housing bubble - pretty amazing really Boooeing wants to sell new stock to raise cash as a costly strike drags on , amazing headline really, i need cash to get me through the strike, other major names also out with lower earnings, LVMH, Pepsi, United Health and AMSL One of the best headline last night ? : Trump on Fed chair: "It's the greatest job in government. You show up to the office once a month and you say, 'Let's see, flip a coin,' and everybody talks about you like you're a God." US households now hold 48% of their assets in equities, the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com bubble peak BOJ's Adachi says conditions are already in place to start normalising policy Germany's where airlines are pulling back due to high costs UK inflation September 2024 ( cnbc.com ) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) on X: "CPI rose by 1.7% in the 12 months to September 2024, down from 2.2% in August 2024. Read the release ➡️ https://t.co/VlulVDztIW https://t.co/iv83ietkiz " / X BOJ's Adachi says conditions are already in place to start normalising policy | Forexlive World Energy Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA Israel Gaza Lebanon live updates: Israel hits Beirut with air strikes for first time in five days - BBC News Ukraine war latest: North Korea has sent 10,000 soldiers to Russia, Western source says ( msn.com ) Ryanair, Easyjet, Condor: Airlines flüchten – falsches Kalkül von Habeck und Co. - WELT Eurowings is cutting 1,000 flights to and from Hamburg, while Ryanair is reducing its operations in Germany by 60%, completely dropping routes to Dortmund, Dresden, and Leipzig. The main reason is the increase in air traffic taxes introduced by the govt. Since May, the tax per ticket has risen by about 20%, now ranging from at least €15.53 to as much as €70.83, depending on the flight route Nvidia Stock Falls After ASML Earnings Leak Early. Why the Drop Is an Overreaction. ( msn.com ) 5 Reasons Why The Gold Rally Is Not Over Yet - VON GREYERZ CNBC on X: "Brian Moynihan, Bank of America chair and CEO, discusses the state of the post-pandemic consumer. Find more on how BofA topped analyst estimates for third-quarter profit and revenue on better-than-expected trading results: https://t.co/GUlrux1JBH https://t.co/oxvNotZ1sB " / X if anyone knows he should Trump Interview Fact Check: Economy, Fed, Migrants - Bloomberg Georgia Officials Report Record Turnout on First Day of Early Voting - The New York Times ( nytimes.com ) Boeing layoff notices going out soon during machinist strike ( qz.com ) Boeing moves to sell new stock as strike drags on ( qz.com ) Vladimir Putin’s spies are plotting global chaos ( economist.com ) China says it will not renounce use of force over Taiwan - Nikkei Asia

WSJ-Following the popularity of gold and silver, Costco recently added platinum bars to its precious metal offerings . While it hasn't sparkled as much as those others this year, its fundamentals look rock solid #PLAT chart - been very rang for few years, patience! Fed Governor Waller sees need for ‘more caution’ ahead when lowering interest rates The Chinese Economy has seen prices contract for 5 straight quarters, the longest such decline in 25 years >>> hence all this China action... China may raise $850 bln in new debt over three years to spur growth, says report Netanyahu informs US officials that Israel will strike Iranian military, not nuclear or oil, targets. Oil gapped down on the new s Bitcoin Bulls Are All-In for Trump. How a Harris Win Plays Out The Gemini JV Maersk/Hapag JV starts 01 Feb - sharing capacity Former Head of MI6: “I think Brexit has marginalised us. It was kind of intended to do exactly that.” / Video well worth 5mins of your time  US Weighs Capping Exports of AI Chips From Nvidia and AMD to Some Countries Economists expect higher inflation, deficits, interest rates under Trump than Harris >>> nothing new, this is what markets been beginning to price, crypto rally, long-end #duration softer, pricing in only 50bps instead of 75bps before year-end (hence curve not really steeper, yet anyway), USD firmed up, and risk loving all that spending promises ... do we get a 'LizzTruss on steroids' moment on a Trump sweep ? pretty certain its where the market will go very quickly ! EU ministers nod to support for nuclear energy ahead of UN climate summit #URA Fed Governor Waller sees need for 'more caution' when lowering interest rates ( cnbc.com ) Fed’s Kashkari said 'modest' rate cuts are 'likely' in the coming quarters ( msn.com ) Trump's policies likely to increase inflation, deficits, survey finds ( thehill.com ) Orbán threatens to mess with Ukraine aid to help Trump – POLITICO Donald Trump has made at least 10 new tax cut promises. Can he keep any of them? ( yahoo.com ) DJT: Trump Media stock soars amid election, Truth Social news ( cnbc.com ) China may raise $850 bln in new debt over three years to spur growth, says report | Reuters EU ministers nod to support for nuclear energy ahead of UN climate summit ( ft.com ) Best for Britain on X: "🚨Former Head of MI6: “I think Brexit has marginalised us. It was kind of intended to do exactly that.” https://t.co/liyOkbjpn4 " / X Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd Announce Two Ocean Network Options with Top Schedule Reliability Costco Members Are Buying Platinum. Should You? ( msn.com ) and Platinum Hits Costco Shelves: Why The Retail Giant Is Selling $1,089 Bars To Its Members ( yahoo.com ) We like it for our clients that's for sure! North Korea blows up parts of inter-Korean roads on its territory, South says, as tensions between the two keep rising - CBS News Middle East latest: Israel expanding air campaign in Lebanon amid fierce fighting in northern Gaza | World News | Sky News ‘Like It or Not, We’re in a Direct Confrontation With Russia’ – Ukraine at War Update for Oct. 15 ( kyivpost.com ) Passengers stranded as Martinique airport shuts down amid protests ( msn.com ) Pas chic ! why is it happening?... inflation, good prices too high... US Weighs Capping Nvidia, AMD AI Chip Sales to Some Countries - Bloomberg Bob Elliott on X: "A month ago the Fed made clear their intention to run "Over Easy" policy ahead, which favors stocks and gold relative to bonds, a steepening of the YC, and a stronger dollar. That's pretty much what has happened since. Thread (with some updated views)." / X Several large Chinese steelmakers hike prices as orders increase after stimulus package - YUAN TALKS Bitcoin Bulls Are Rooting for Trump. What's at Stake This Election for Cryptos. - Barron's ( barrons.com )

Week ahead : OPEC meeting today, retails sales, Philly Fed, 11 FED speakers this week again! and about 10% of S&P500 companies report their earnings (kicked off quite strongly with banks on Friday). China PPI overnight cools again in Sep (hence CHINA action last 10days..) & CSI relatively quiet after conf call on Saturday (closing 2-3% higher from early lows) , UK's Starmer's big day in the city, most US markets closed for Columbus day US consumers' inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years skyrocketed to 7.1% in October, the highest in over 40 years US High Yield credit spreads have moved down to 2.89%, tightest levels since Jun 2007 Golden times for gold fans. Prices for the metal have shot up this year even as inflation risks have receded, prompting calls to give it more respect-FT China starts military drills around Taiwan, with planes and ships encircling the island Starmer’s big day in the City ( msn.com ) Starmer to hail more than £50bn in investment at key summit | Business News | Sky News Christopher Columbus was secretly Jewish, new DNA study reveals | The Independent China's Ministry of Finance tackles debt problems before economic challenges ( cnbc.com ) Middle East latest: Four teenage IDF soldiers killed as Hezbollah attacks army base with drones; Israeli airstrike kills 'at least 23' in Gaza school | World News | Sky News Ukraine war latest: Ukraine is holding front line in Kursk Oblast despite Russian attacks, Zelensky says ( msn.com ) Stock market today: Dow and S&P 500 notch record highs as earnings season kicks off ( yahoo.com ) Copper prices to hit record high in Q4 2024 on Fed cuts and China stimulus – Fastmarkets - MINING.COM The Kobeissi Letter on X: "US consumers' inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years skyrocketed to 7.1% in October, the highest in over 40 years. This metric has DOUBLED in just several months, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Survey. To put this into perspective, median inflation https://t.co/EZIo5ioAWU " / X Unicus on X: "🚨 The Market is Open tomorrow. 1. Inflation is spiking, again. 2. The U.S Consumer sentiment falls on higher costs. Here is what to know for the week ahead- a thread🧵 https://t.co/wQVKvDk9A2 " / X Kamala Harris puts pressure on Donald Trump over medical records ( bbc.com ) US election briefing: Trump visits Coachella while Harris packs diapers in North Carolina | US elections 2024 | The Guardian US deploys Thaad anti-missile system to Israel after Iranian attack ( bbc.com ) Golden times for gold fans ( ft.com ) Better late than never China CPI inflation unexpectedly cools in Sept, PPI down By Investing.com Trump Biopic 'The Apprentice' Flops in Opening Weekend, Plays to Mostly Empty Theaters Despite Massive News Media Push ( breitbart.com ) SAD! Elon Musk shows off bartending robots at a recent Tesla event, but some attendees say the automatons were being controlled by people | PC Gamer Everything Space on X: "SpaceX have just caught their 70m tall Starship booster on their 1st attempt! 🤯 📹: SpaceX https://t.co/Y5i27kFhgB " / X https://thequantuminsider.com/2024/10/11/chinese-scientists-report-using-quantum-computer-to-hack-military-grade-encryption/ ''Chinese quantum computer just cracked multiple SPN algorithms. This is way bigger than cracking the ENIGMA code. The future of encryption is at stake.”....can't claim i know anything about this, but there you go.....!!...Chinese researchers, using a D-Wave quantum computer, claim to have executed what they are calling the first successful quantum attack on widely used encryption algorithms, posing a “real and substantial threat” to sectors like banking and the military, as reported by SCMP.

The Northern Lights, aka aurora borealis, were visible in parts of Switzerland on Thursday evening - see CH pics in last link China to Hold Monday Briefing on Enhancing Support for Firms - Statement Fed president Bostic's  WSJ interview  was the closest we have seen to an FOMC voter advocating for a November pause . This follows on from  SF Fed Daly's comments  overnight that she was open to one or two additional 25bp cuts >>> 10Y yield now +50 bps since the Fed cut 50 bps U.S : the politicians are failing us on spending and the bond market is starting to call them out . In the long run this government spending charade can’t continue without consequences #duration long term UST's etc (UK and GILTS at risk of being similar) Nearly all sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point at each of its next two meetings/Thread French government's draft budget based on 'optimistic' hypotheses - Le Monde >>> France Budget the current proposals which are unlikely to fully pass will bring the deficit down to just 5% when the EU limit is 3% Rachel Reeves is considering raising capital gains tax to 39%, Former Darktrace chief executive Poppy Gustafsson  will take on the role, taking charge of the scaled up Office for Investment Stop Israel from bombing Iran's oil sites, Gulf states urge US CB of Korea cuts 25bps to 3.25% after holding for almost 2years New NATO chief Mark Rutte tells allies to ignore Russian leader Putin's sabre rattling, "We will never be intimidated by anyone outside NATO trying to threaten us.' FT- Private equity groups’ assets struggling under hefty debt loads, Moody’s says French government presents 2025 belt-tightening budget | Reuters France's budget under close European scrutiny ( lemonde.fr ) Christian Lindner: Finanzminister will Schulden 2025 kräftig erhöhen - DER SPIEGEL Rachel Reeves considers raising capital gains tax to 39% | Autumn budget 2024 | The Guardian Starmer unveils new investment minister in ‘scaled up’ department ( msn.com ) China Investors Expect $283 Billion of New Stimulus This Weekend - Bloomberg Private equity groups’ assets struggling under hefty debt loads, Moody’s says New NATO chief Mark Rutte tells allies to ignore Russian leader Putin's sabre rattling | World News | Sky News Ukraine Russia war latest: Zelensky meets EU allies as Putin faced ‘bloodiest month’ of war in September | The Independent Stop Israel from bombing Iran's oil sites, Gulf states urge US, World News - AsiaOne Bank of Korea cuts interest rates after holding for almost two years ( cnbc.com ) Fed's Bostic says labor market slowing but not slow, jobs gains 'robust' | Reuters Nick Timiraos on X: "Nearly all sell-side economists and other professional Fed watchers expect the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point at each of its next two meetings. The median and modal outlook from these forecasters is for another 100 basis points in cuts next year, which would take the https://t.co/fUC4A1xNGG " / X Michael Pettis on X: "1/11 Mao Zhenhua, of Renmin University's Institute of Economics, says that because China's current slowdown is mainly cyclical, Beijing should respond by ignoring its debt constraints and funding a significant countercyclical fiscal expansion. https://t.co/9ytkvukpnc " / X What a story this is too https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/td-faces-us3-billion-fine-growth-restriction-to-settle-us-probes/387241 The New Tesla Robo Taxi Aims For A $30,000 Price Tag ( dailycarblog.com ) Northern Lights spotted over Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch

France’s minority government set to present make-or-break austerity budget (today) China's central bank said on Thursday it would start accepting applications from financial institutions to join a newly created funding scheme, initially worth 500 billion yuan, to aid the capital market. FOMC minutes  indicated significant resistance to the eventual decision to ease 50bps, last week's data changed sentiment, down to less than 50bps priced in for 2024 U.S Federal Deficit hits $1.8rn for 2024, CBO >>> that's about 6.4% of GDP UK Should Tax Wealthy Exiting the Country , Economists Say, Dutch parliament in favor of an exit tax for wealthy nationals - too many heading to Dubai, CH or Portugal etc Chip war: China claims breakthrough in silicon photonics that could clear technical hurdle.   A Wuhan-based lab has announced a ‘milestone’ that could help China overcome restraints imposed by traditional chip-design technology Wondering why U.S employment holds strong ?...The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit 8.66 million in September,  a new record Robeco Monthly Outlook –  Gold is back as an asset class GM (and most others) is walking a tightrope between gas and electric cars European Union countries have given their green light to an unprecedented plan to issue a €35 billion loan for Ukraine using the immobilised assets of Russia's Central Bank as collateral Germany's economy is now projected to shrink for the 2nd consecutive year, DAX ATH's >>> market liquidities overall supporting US markets, no FOMC minutes surprise, China adding liquidities overnight, all seems like a one way traffic, even geopolitics not worrying anyone (lower crude is actually stimulating growth too) >>> YET, we would clearly keep an eye on VOLS (eq vols VIX, bond vols MOVE and even FX vols), they are ALL firmer into year-end, CLEARLY huge amount/plenty of positions being hedged Fed Minutes Reveal Divide Over Size of September Rate Cut ( msn.com ) Central bank opens up 500bn yuan swap facility - RTHK Storm makes Florida landfall with warnings of life-threatening surge - BBC News Live updates: Israel strikes Lebanon and Gaza, war with Hamas and Hezbollah | CNN Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky explains what it would take to end Putin’s war in 2025 ( msn.com ) EU countries greenlight €35 billion loan for Ukraine using Russia's frozen assets | Euronews Robeco Monthly Outlook - Gold is back as an asset class - IFA Magazine Chip war: China claims breakthrough in silicon photonics that could clear technical hurdle | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Foundational considerations in a changing economy - Dallasfed.org UK Should Tax Wealthy Exiting the Country, Economists Say ( yahoo.com ) Rachel Reeves needs £25bn tax rise to avoid austerity, says IFS ( thetimes.com ) What a choice .. Badenoch and Jenrick in final two for Tory race as Cleverly exits ( bbc.com ) Portugal has a new plan to help young people access housing — but will it really help? ( msn.com ) Similar in France France’s minority government set to present make-or-break austerity budget ( msn.com ) GM is walking a tightrope between gas and electric cars ( yahoo.com ) All car makers are - pretty much The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit 8.66 million in September, a new record. This is ~300,000 above the peak seen before the pandemic and ~600,000 above the 2008 peak. Furthermore, the number of part-time jobs has jumped by ~3 million over the https://t.co/znOOEMR6Ln " / X Ghost jobs: Why fake job listings are on the rise ( cnbc.com ) damn world, mind you it's been going on for years on certain business platform.. BMO warns of potential $75bn+ in insured losses if Milton strikes Tampa as a major hurricane - Reinsurance News Republican Debunks Marjorie Taylor Greene's Hurricane Claims: 'Outrageous' - Newsweek world gone mad Florida Rep. says Marjorie Taylor Greene needs her ‘head examined’ after weather posts - POLITICO

Milton, Florida, stay safe China's Minister of Finance Lan Fo'An will brief on the strengthening of counter-cyclical fiscal policy adjustment and promoting high-quality economic development in a press conference hosted by the State Council Information Office on Saturday, Oct. 12, at 10:00 Beijing How betting platform influence outcomes of elections and other events . There are more platforms for taking bets, some of which try to control for whales and foreign interference and some of which do not. The amount of money required to  move  these prediction markets is no longer trivial, but possible Elon Musk says he would like to fire about 80% of the federal government while working with Donald Trump (similar to what was done at Twitter..or X !) China hits out at EU brandy in tit-for-tat after EV tariff vote, and 'be patient' is the word : China confident to achieve full-year growth target: economic planner What to expect from the EV battery technology market SAXO Bank: US Election: will gold win in all scenarios? The combination of geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, and potential shifts in monetary policy, particularly in the wake of the US presidential election, makes a bullish case for gold as a hard asset In just 40 years, US debt rose from $1 trillion to $35 trillion With a shocking $3 trillion increase just last year alone This is simply NOT sustainable… RBNZ cut 50bps, as expected, down to 4.75%, policy still restrictive, more cuts coming US considers breaking up Google after landmark case NFIB small business survey:  The NFIB small business optimism index ticked up slightly to 91.5 in September from 91.2 in August (Consensus: 92.0) U.S : Rate cuts were supposed to push mortgage rates lower. The opposite has happened Live updates: Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida as thousands flee | CNN September Fed Minutes to Shed Light on Rate-Cut Debate ( msn.com ) Manufactured Consensus - Epsilon Theory Donald Trump and the Common Knowledge Game - Epsilon Theory How many folks these days look at a poll and get convinced to vote this way or that way... rather than read about it and make their mind up....answer : a fair amount, but when outcomes are based on relatively small margins these days, IT MATTERS Rate cuts were supposed to push mortgage rates lower. The opposite has happened. ( msn.com ) #supply $35trn etc What to expect from the EV battery technology market – The Armchair Trader OCR 4.75% – Monetary restraint reduced as inflation converges to target - Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te Pūtea Matua ( rbnz.govt.nz ) US considers breaking up Google after landmark case ( msn.com ) Trump 'secretly sent US Covid tests to Putin for his personal use' during pandemic ( telegraph.co.uk ) Inflation, election compounding small business uncertainty: NFIB ( yahoo.com ) Hindenburg Research on X: "Roblox's response is an abject failure to address the two core allegations in our report, including: 1. Evidence that Roblox has been systematically lying for years about the number of people on its platform and their genuine level of engagement. 2. That the platform is a https://t.co/Tj2KiANOnI " / X China confident to achieve full-year growth target: economic planner-Xinhua ( news.cn ) Chinese heavy-duty vehicle platinum demand could be ready for a rise - The Jerusalem Post ( jpost.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "Yicai: "China plans to expand the scope and scale of local government special bonds to further boost economic growth, granting localities more leeway in how they use the funds raised by these debt sales." I hope this doesn't mean a return to the days when local governments were" / X China hits out at EU brandy in tit-for-tat after EV tariff vote | Reuters In the rapidly evolving landscape of EV battery technology, advancements are driven largely by the electric vehicle (EV) industry, where scale, efficiency, and economics reign supreme. While the technological forefront may reside in aeronautics and consumer electronics – fields less constrained by price and scale, progress is evident across all segments. Uptake of Copilots slightly below expectations for Microsoft, says Oppenheimer ( yahoo.com ) Virginia teacher who was fired over refusing to use student's preferred pronouns awarded $575,000 ( msn.com ) Cities where low mortgage rates have homeowners locked in 'golden handcuffs' ( qz.com ) The 'lock-in effect' is easing. Here's what what means for the housing market ( qz.com )

Hurricane Milton continues to barrel towards Florida as a Category 5 Hurricane carrying 180 max sustained winds UST 10y yields back to 4% >>> markets now on a no-landing scenario, thus incompatible with yields much below 4% particularly will oil prices back up 10pct last week alone, as discussed with many of view recently in private conf calls, the markets will continue to swing around between the hard, soft or even no landing scenario in weeks and months ahead, plenty of scenario possible out of ME war, earnings, macro data, FOMC minutes tomorrow to start with, and of course the U.S election >>> Markets have about 20bps priced in for a cut at next FED meeting (all changed after ISM services and NFP late last week), under 50 for 2024 now (was 75), but it will swing around ! no doubt China conf call from NDRC disappointed markets, which was almost inevitable after a 30-35% rally...got to give a chance to would be buyers to step in now.. Goldman Sachs is getting more bullish about stocks, raises S&P 500 forecast to 6,000, and 6300 target for 2025 Ed Yardeni sees Fed pausing rate cuts for 2024 after Jobs Report For the first time on record, the Atlantic has 3 #hurricanes  simultaneously after September/thread #madweatherpatterns, Milton is not a Cat 5 Russia has announced plans to add silver to its state reserves alongside gold, platinum, and palladium , a move that should further accelerate silver's emerging bull market US dominance into perspective: In 2009, the market cap of the US stock market was 30% of the global stock market cap. Today it is almost 50%/Apollo's Slok Saudi Arabia tees up multibillion-dollar bet on hydrogen . It plans to provide 15% of blue hydrogen production globally, in addition to investing in green hydrogen Elon Musk says he is ‘Dark MAGA’ at Trump campaign rally UK borrowing costs climb as chancellor Rachel Reeves walks ‘tightrope’ over spending plans + French PM Barnier promises spending cuts and tax hikes to reduce 'colossal' debt Live updates: Hurricane Milton takes aim at Florida with Tampa highways overflowing as evacuations begin | CNN Israel-Lebanon latest: Israel says it killed Hezbollah commander as Beirut air strikes continue - BBC News Ukraine-Russia war latest: Harris sets terms for Putin peace talks as Kyiv faces hypersonic missile attack ( msn.com ) China Vows to Hit Economic Goals, Stops Short of Large Stimulus - Bloomberg Saxo Bank: The New Swiss Leaders Take the Helm ( finews.com ) Saudi Arabia tees up multibillion-dollar bet on hydrogen ( businesstimes.com.sg ) UK borrowing costs climb as chancellor Rachel Reeves walks ‘tightrope’ over spending plans ( ft.com ) French PM Barnier promises spending cuts and tax hikes to reduce 'colossal' debt ( lemonde.fr ) Ed Yardeni Sees Fed Pausing Rate Cuts for 2024 After Jobs Report ( yahoo.com ) BP abandons oil and gas pledge as it prepares to target Middle East ( telegraph.co.uk ) Left-wing lawmakers file no-confidence motion against French PM Barnier ( msn.com ) How Russian Buying Could Help Drive Silver to $50 and Beyond ( moneymetals.com ) Kamala Harris on '60 minutes' said she will not deal with Putin on war without Ukraine - Washington Times Poland now has more gold reserves than the UK ( rmx.news ) Philip Klotzbach on X: "For the first time on record, the Atlantic has 3 #hurricanes simultaneously after September (#Kirk, #Leslie, #Milton). https://t.co/vv7gEdKbY3 " / X Elon Musk says he is 'Dark MAGA' at Trump campaign rally | Fortune Climbing the iconic Eiger mountain in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch You up for it ? .....I'm not ! #toosteepforme !

Strong NFP Friday + port strike ended : FED cut expectations felt like too much priced in..speed of rates cuts...>> Nov cut expectations immediately down to smalls below 25bps, USDollar pushes higher, yields and stocks up >>> it's about growth and markets liked it >>> FOMC on Wed, CPI on Thursday ( Goldman sees: +0.10% headline m/m +0.28% core m/m +2.27% headline y/y +3.16% core y/y) and PPI Friday, then earnings season again and U.S election early Nov #Lithium prices collapsed in recent months...RioTinto confirmed that it has approached Arcadium Lithium about a possible takeover, a deal that would make Rio Tinto one of the largest producers of lithium in the world HSI 2.5y highs, that's a 30% rally since the shock and awe moves from China, GS says surging chinese stocks may advance another 20%, not good been a teacher in China : China demands schoolteachers hand IN their passports! EU executive to adopt a 45% tariffs on Chinese EVs after vote Trump threatens a 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico, Donald Trump would raise the US debt by twice as much as Kamala Harris, report finds Rachel Reeves to spare PE bosses top UK tax rate in compromise on ‘lorio tinto ophole’ Over the month, contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ declined by 5.8% in August after unexpectedly rebounding 3.9% in July, whaoo that's another big miss SPX big picture 5750/5800 resistance, with most bullish views are for 6K into year-end, that all said most are guessing on geopolitics/crude, earnings, FED speed of cuts AND U.S elections coming up Upcoming events and webinars | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Is your portfolio ready for the US election? September jobs report builds case for smaller Fed rate cut in November ( yahoo.com ) Fed is in a moment of transition: Chicago Fed's Goolsbee ( yahoo.com ) Live updates: Israel at war with Hamas, Hezbollah 1 year after October 7 attacks | CNN Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian activist killed fighting for Ukraine as Kyiv receives first Dutch F-16s ( msn.com ) UBS Calls No All-Out Iran-Israel War as Base Case ( finews.asia ) Crude oil futures ramping up fast on Middle East escalation fears – The Armchair Trader Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat warns against speculative moves as yen falls ( cnbc.com ) German industrial orders slump more than expected in August | Reuters US port strike comes to close with new deal ( fullyloaded.com.au ) EU executive to adopt tariffs on Chinese EVs after vote ( msn.com ) Rachel Reeves to spare PE bosses top UK tax rate in compromise on ‘loophole’ ( ft.com ) Sue Gray resigns as Downing Street chief of staff | Politics News | Sky News Trump threatens a 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico | Reuters Donald Trump would raise the US debt by twice as much as Kamala Harris, report finds ( ft.com ) Milton To Become Hurricane Tonight, Florida Threat | Weather.com Good grief another one underway FTSE 100 mining giant Rio Tinto confirms interest in Arcadium Lithium ( msn.com ) #lithium market alive again The curse of the Michelin star ( economist.com ) When a restaurant gets a Michelin star: Customer expectations rise, employee wage demands rise, suppliers expect you to pay more, and the restaurant is more likely to go out of business in the ensuing years

Why the SNB should reconsider the Gold Question #XAUUSD Big downside surprise in French inflation, CPI down to 1.2% in September!, services inflation down to 2.5%, ECB will move sharply again in October, Spain similar to rest of europe will show similar dets #USDJPY down - Shigeru Ishiba wins LDP leadership race run-off , will be Japan's next prime minister - Ishiba received 215 votes in the run-off while Takaichi only got 194 votes. That's good news for yen bulls, as Takaichi was the one who had been vocal in scrutnising the BOJ for hiking rates too fast. So, Ishiba winning at least takes some of that pressure away. All In - David Tepper just said he broke (risk) limits to own China , 15-20% is usually his limit, but we think he is higher than that. When asked about a "hedge" he said I have no hedge, valuation is the hedge... >>> Technically, the double bottom is confirmed for many of the Chinese indices, china was the most significant contrarian trade this year!!..., it's coming together! potentially a long way to go >>>> basically it's as big as what Draghi did in 2012, and if it's not enough, China will do more! it's the BIG bazooka and add softer crude which is another stimulus ! BASF, the world's largest chemical company, will cut its dividend by as much as ~33% (to "at least" €2.25 per share from €3.40 per share last year). BASF has been one of the biggest victims of the European energy crisis U.S Regulators are exploring a requirement that larger banks maintain a minimum amount of readily available liquidity with a “pool of reserves and pre-positioned collateral” at the discount window, based on a fraction of their uninsured deposits UK chancellor ready to water down planned tax raid on wealthy foreigners Rachel Reeves had hoped to raise £1bn a year by tightening rules on ‘non-doms’ SNB cut rates by 25bps as expected BUT conveyed very dovish tone significantly revising down the entire inflation path by 2027 Rudy Giuliani disbarred in DC after pushing Trump's false 2020 election claims China's central bank cuts RRR by 50 basis points to strengthen market confidence - Global Times Former Defense Minister Ishiba chosen as Japan’s next Prime Minister, appointment next week, japan, Shigeru Ishiba, japan new prime minister, japan election, fumio kishida, world, latest news, ( mathrubhumi.com ) Why the SNB Should Reconsider the Gold Question ( finews.com ) Fed's Barr previews mandatory collateral prepositioning, liquidity reforms | American Banker This is potentially another huger source of liquidities Joseph Wang on X: "Barr is boosting demand for Treasuries by strengthening the fungibility between reserves and Tsy for banks. He will allow banks to take into account monetizing of Treasuries via discount window or standing repo facility for their liquidity tests. https://t.co/AUcOT39nE2 " / X UK chancellor ready to water down planned tax raid on wealthy foreigners ( ft.com ) BASF presents new corporate strategy: BASF is setting a new direction for portfolio steering, capital allocation and performance culture Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Faces DOJ Probe and Stock Volatility - Tokenist Mark Cuban on VP Harris' move to the center: She believes the country needs to come together ( cnbc.com ) China Announces Cash Handouts for the Poor in Rare Use of Aid - Bloomberg Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA on X: "China Politburo held a special meeting, and set the Chinese market on fire. It’s special because: - It’s unusual to hold a politburo meeting to discuss the economy in September. The timing is out of ordinary, and the timing of the announcement is set to coincide with the policy https://t.co/cfCRamWGQp " / X China covered up sinking of newest submarine, says US official | The Straits Times Louis Curran on X: "My Take On China China - I was working on a presentation yesterday which I'd spoke to one or two about, which basically suggested that the steps and style of how the PBOC intervened 2 days ago were emblematic of Draghi's effort's to Stabilise the Euro in July 2012. We will do https://t.co/EbqFLv1to5 " / X couldn't agree more with L C ! Billionaire investor David Tepper on China: Central bank comments 'exceeded expectations' ( cnbc.com ) Japan SDF destroyer sails through Taiwan Strait for 1st time - Nikkei Asia Saudi Arabia to drop $100 crude target to win back market share, FT reports | Reuters Rudy Giuliani disbarred in DC after pushing Trump's false 2020 election claims ( msn.com ) More #silver #xagusd #SILJ Ole S Hansen on X: "Today's movement in #silver once again underscores that the metal behaves like #gold on steroids, spiced with inspiration from its industrial metal friends. It generally follows the same trajectory as gold, but with more volatility, and occasional detours along the way." / X