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US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% last June to 6.4% in January. What's driving that decline? Lower rates of inflation in New/Used Cars, Gasoline, Medical Care, Apparel, Food at Home, Electricity, Gas Utilities, and Fuel Oil >>> inflation is not going up as quickly as it did, that's all, it's not about disinflation or lower inflation, having said this there has been a few positive developments last few months, clearly, and the data is also questionable in parts (old), specifically things like shelters, let's see whether U.S retail sales reinforce this view this afternoon Dutch annual natural gas use drops to lowest for 50years, thank you mild winter, also shows when everyone is prepared to make an effort, it works.. and you cut costs to UK's Michael Gove’s Brexit U-turn - At a “secret” meeting over the weekend, the Levelling Up Secretary was "very honest" about the shortcomings of Brexit (story below), and finally ! Brexit deal meets DUP's seven red lines, Downing Street to declare...There are hopes the move can pave the way for Northern Ireland power-sharing to return With the 26 million barrels release confirmed last night (due to Congress mandated sales), the size of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will drop to ~345 million barrels by mid-year, the lowest level in 40 years Fed's Barkin: There's going to be a lot more persistence to inflation than we want Fed's Williams speech ''our work is not yet done'' & Fed's Harker says similar Indian tycoon Gautam Adani dismisses market volatility as ‘temporary’ NATO members should spend a minimum of 2% of GDP on defense, Germany says, that's one sure thing for the next many many years : increase in defense spending BlackRock downgrades Japan stocks on possible monetary policy shift White House: No indication objects were part of China spy program, can we all calm down now please and, good news!, There are "no signs of ET" in British skies, the Defence Secretary says after unidentified flying objects were shot down in the US Vanguard Value ETF VTV was a top buy among HF's last quarter as 39 hedge funds added about half a billion worth of shares while 18 exited, one of the highest buy/sell ratios of any equity Markets : Post U.S CPI, the message is clear, high(er) for longer in rates, rate hikes are being 'extended', new contracts lows in June, &Sep Fed meetings, the 200bps of cuts remain though slightly further out, basically the peak has moved/trended form March to July 2023 by now (ever since NFP in early Feb) >>> high (er) for longer... Market is data watching, stronger data, will push rate hikes further out again (similar picture in UK and Spanish CPI this morning-sticky!) USD initially down & risk rallied, all got reversed pretty swiftly during the U.S session >>> in reality CROSSJPY's higher for now on higher yields, and as long as Ueda does not make any radical changes to policy (it will come, but not yet) HSI : the furious rally topped in late Jan, down a good 10pct form highs then. Many market participants surprised relative equity strength vs UST yields/rates Commodities all a little softer >>> sticky inflation, higher USD, recession risk etc 6months U.S Tbills 5%, 2year slowly getting back towards 4.75% which is definitely worth considering for some of this USDollar assets Citi: "Details of January CPI that were different from our forecast leave us more confident that upcoming inflation prints will remain strong. Even as shelter prices eventually start to moderate...rebounds in components like used cars and airfares present upside risks" Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, forecasts the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its next four meetings, reaching a peak of 5.5% to 5.75% in July Incoming BOJ head Ueda will end yield control, keep low rates - ex-c.bank executive (yahoo.com) Michael Gove's Brexit U-turn - The New European Damn lies! At least he admits (unlike many other fanatics) that it was bad idea, particularly a very bad delivery.. UK inflation falls but remains in double digits at 10.1% | Inflation | The Guardian Still far too high El-Erian, Rogoff Say Too Late to Fix Too-Low Inflation Target - Bloomberg El-Erian, Rogoff Say It’s Too Late to Fix Too-Low Inflation Target. They both see higher US interest rates for some time to come. Higher real rates mean lower asset prices,’ says Rogoff >>>> why do we have to have 2% inflation target ?? why cant iot ne changed ? to say 3% , who decided 2% is right, right for who anyway ? Our Work Is Not Yet Done - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org) Dutch annual natural gas use drops to lowest for 50 years | Reuters FCA and West Yorkshire police raid crypto operators in UK first | Cryptocurrencies | The Guardian Singapore budget: 2022 deficit lower than expected; inflation, GST support (cnbc.com) Indian tycoon Gautam Adani dismisses market volatility as 'temporary' (cnbc.com) BlackRock downgrades Japan stocks on possible monetary policy shift (cnbc.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany where gas storage level has dropped to 72.5% full due to colder weather but is still way above the 5y seasonal norm of 49.8% for this time of year. https://t.co/xl4gPH8Xds" / Twitter Mexico's top diplomat says met with Tesla brass, 'good news' imminent (yahoo.com) The Average New Car Payment Sounds Like A Sick Joke - TheStreet Ohio train derailment update: Anger at Biden and Buttigieg for ‘ignoring’ East Palestine toxic chemicals disaster | The Independent this is a terrible terrible natural disaster - kept very quiet

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government nominated Kazuo Ueda to helm the Bank of Japan on Tuesday in a move likely to pave the way for a gradual paring back of the central bank’s full-bore stimulus. The next Bank of Japan governor's first task will be to tweak monetary policy without wrecking the economy, upending markets or crippling the BOJ’s balance sheet. And that’s just the start of a long to-do list Switzerland January CPI +3.3% vs +2.9% y/y expected, published yesterday, again some inflation data that remains pretty sticky! Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak thinks ChatGPT is 'pretty impressive,' but warned it can make 'horrible mistakes', don't trust it blindly ! UAE energy minister: Oil market is balanced. No need for extraordinary OPEC+ meeting China’s Savings Conundrum by Zhang Jun: The increase in China's savings largely reflects economic uncertainty, rather than pent-up demand - important if true and Top US and China diplomats Antony Blinken and Wang Yi weigh first meeting since balloon row, good that they meet US balloons illegally flew over China more than 10 times since the beginning of 2022, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin >>> #balloongate Oz : Major companies say it is getting harder to push through higher prices, amid a plunge in consumer confidence and warnings from NAB that interest rates will need to rise to 4.1 per cent to tackle inflation How Citigroup Helped Lift the Lid on Trafigura’s Nickel Nightmare Belarus : various countries asking their embassy to leave Russia-Ukraine war live: Nato defence ministers to meet in Brussels, Bakhmut under heavy fire Markets : Ahead of U.S CPI and retail sales tomorrow, Mr Markets has 2x 25bps and a little bit more priced in up to July, a Terminal rate around 5.25% by July, and at least 1x 25bps cut byyear-end (more cuts in 2024), the cuts is where the market disagree with Fed The mid-1990s were the ultimate ''higher for longer''.. scenario fed raised rates from 3 to 6% in 1994-95 (brutal bond market collapse in '94, MXN, MYR deval etc etc), then the Fed kept rates at an elevated 5 to 6%% level for over 3years.. SPX500 4150 area resistance again, fair to say 'many' market participants surprised of these market strength in recent days/weeks USD, let's see price action post U.S CPI, we pointed out recently 1,0750 EURUSD and 132.50+ USDJPY as key levels for further momentum one way or another, higher yields should continue to favour higher CROSSJPY's, CHF remains strong with higher inflation print earlier this week Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – February 14, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: US equity markets snapped back higher yesterday after having toyed below pivotal levels in the case of the S&P 500. Investors are likely hoping for a benign US January CPI print today that will keep rising US Treasury yields from spoiling the outlook for equities on hopes that peak Fed tightening has already been priced, with about two and a half 25-bp hikes priced for the next four Fed meetings. https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/another-us-cpi-circus-today-tightening-financial-conditions/ always worth a listen China's Savings Conundrum - The Wire China Top US and China diplomats Antony Blinken and Wang Yi weigh first meeting since balloon row | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Russia-Ukraine war live: Nato defence ministers to meet in Brussels; Bakhmut under heavy fire (theguardian.com) How Citigroup Helped Lift the Lid on Trafigura’s Nickel Nightmare (yahoo.com) >>> the effect of higher rates !! are yet to be really seen or felt in many places (that's the type of risk and issues that can and will pop out - rate hikes slowly working through the system) Residents in Ohio Town Worry after Controlled Blast Carried Out to Stop Chemicals on Derailed Train from Exploding (news18.com) Ueda Nominated for Central Bank Head as a BOJ-Favored ‘Outsider’ (yahoo.com) Swiss Consumer Price Inflation Exceeds Expectations | 13.02.23 | finanzen.at Steve Wozniak Warns ChatGPT Can 'Make Horrible Mistakes': CNBC (businessinsider.com) 'Day of pain': Wirecard boss denies charges in massive fraud trial | Reuters Mark Cuban Trashes ChatGPT, AI, As Vehicles for Online Misinformation (businessinsider.com) UK ready to snub EU’s £88bn science scheme over Brexit row | The Independent Michelle Donelanm, the new secretary of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, said she is prepared to snub the EU’s £88.6bn flagship research scheme and create an alliance with the United States, Japan and Switzerland Richard Sharp ‘must fall on his sword and resign as BBC chairman’, says Jonathan Dimbleby | Evening Standard Good News! The most timely estimate of UK payrolled employees for January 2023 shows another monthly increase, up 102,000 on the revised December 2022 figures, to 30.0 million. Cyclone Gabrielle worst storm to hit New Zealand this century, says PM | Cyclone Gabrielle | The Guardian good grief, one disaster after another, make it stop! RBA interest rates: Consumer confidence sinks to fresh lows, NAB predicts rates to hi 4.1pc (afr.com) S&P500 have a great day Team PVM

China GDP: IMF urges ‘comprehensive reforms’ to bring economy back in line with growth potential-Without reforms, China’s growth could drop to about 4 per cent on average over the next five years and 3 per cent on average between 2028-37, according to the IMF Approximately 130 people were arrested or are the target of arrest warrants issued by Turkish officials for their involvement in alleged faulty and illegal construction methods U.S. military brings down flying object over Lake Huron The Bank of Japan's expected next governor Kazuo Ueda likely won't rush to overhaul ultra-loose policy and will instead let economic data guide the exit timing, said Tetsuya Inoue, who was Ueda's staff secretary when he was a central bank board member >>> at least not until Kuroda is actually out of the door in April.. Israel : Coalition signals some readiness to weigh Herzog judicial proposal, will delay votes Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said on Friday the surprisingly strong jobs data reported last week did not alter his view that moving to smaller interest rate rises was a good strategy for the central bank, as he flagged the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 should inflation continue to ease Downside convexity could become an issue. GS program trading desk writes: "Inflecting CTA flow could translate to an approx. 20% sell off in US equities over a month in a down tape scenario" Germany's Olaf Scholz suffers loss at Berlin election SPX500 : Investors paying up to protect themselves in case stock mkt sinks: Contracts protecting against 10% decline in S&P 500 ETF in next 30d cost 1.7 times more than options that profit from 10% rally, BBG reports / Risk appetite for protection high Coming week : we have key U.S CPI data tomorrow, 0.1% difference won't change anything but will get Algo's going, as usual. UK Inflation on Wednesday, and more earnings SEC Chief Gensler warns Crypto firms to comply with Rules after Kraken shutters US Staking Program Rishi Sunak has ordered senior officials to draw up plans for strengthening Britain's relationship with the EU Iranian President to Visit China This Week on Xi’s Invite Markets : Fighting inflation by rising rates will prove to be a tough task with debt to GDP near or above 100% of GDP >> "the fastest rate cycle in decades will not end with a whimper" JPY >>> should weaken again under Ueda, from what's been said or not said about him - chart below UST yields grinding higher, U.S CPI tomorrow key, do we really see that 'slowdown' that is priced in already..! or do we suddenly worry about 6% terminal rate type scenario ? USD mixed to slightly firmer again, with a hint of CROSSJPY buying (higher yields) Crude steady, not really reacting much to Russia's cut announcement (higher risk of slow growth ahead?). Copper softer too, taking a breather after the 'China reopening' stories gathered pace last 2-3months BOJ's expected new chief Ueda to let data guide exit timing- ex-staff | Reuters Fed's Harker says small rate hikes on table, opens door to cuts in 2024 (msn.com) China GDP: IMF urges ‘comprehensive reforms’ to bring economy back in line with growth potential | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Turkey arrests building contractors in wake of earthquake | The Hill U.S. military brings down flying object over Lake Huron | Reuters Alien invasion ! Coalition signals some readiness to weigh Herzog judicial proposal, will delay votes | The Times of Israel Germany's Olaf Scholz suffers loss at Berlin election (msn.com) SEC Chief Gensler Warns Crypto Firms to Comply With Rules After Kraken Shutters US Staking Program (yahoo.com) >>> The regulator has asserted that many tokens and crypto products are really just securities that trade on the blockchain and should be registered with the agency. Gensler took particular issue with how crypto exchanges often play multiple roles. He suggested their business models can create significant conflicts of interest. “We don’t let the New York Stock Exchange also run a hedge fund and trade on the exchange.” he said. “Why would we do it here?” >>> where ever you want to operate in the world, do it within the rules, if not, then it remains in the shadow world.. Rishi Sunak EU Brexit Britain Latest Economic News - Bloomberg Honest Burgers threatens to ‘fire and rehire’ workers who don’t accept loss of paid breaks | Evening Standard Iran’s Raisi to meet with China’s Xi Jinping to strengthen ties | Fox News Robin Brooks on Twitter: "If you think Russia's production cut will lift oil prices, think again. The OPEC+ production cut last November was bigger and failed to lift oil prices, so there's no chance this production cut will do anything. The global recession dynamic is just too powerful. Demand is weak... https://t.co/aUtoQy5Rol" / Twitter Putin faces key ‘dilemma’ of which defences on 800-mile frontline to bolster against Ukrainian offensive - UK | Evening Standard USDJPY 132+ in short-term an 135+ medium term and we could be off to the races again with a combination of higher US yields and Ueda.. Have a great start to the week Team PVM

BoJ to decide on new BoJ Governor next week (14th Feb), Academic Ueda, Reportedly Tapped As Next BoJ Governor, Says BoJ’s Monetary Policy Is Appropriate, Need To Continue Easy Policy and apan govt to nominate BoJ executive director Shinichi Uchida as new deputy BoJ governor "AI Has Made Me LOSE HOPE.." | Joe Rogan & Elon Musk Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel: stopping rate hikes too soon would be "cardinal sin", no less The largest move in the last 48 hours was: Sweden 20Y. G10 bond yields that had 2 standard deviation moves during the period include: Sweden 20Y, Sweden 10Y, US 2s10s, Sweden 5Y, Sweden 2Y, Canada 30Y Russia aims to cut its March oil production by 500,000 barrels a day in response to the western price caps, Deputy PM Novak says UAE’s biggest bank says no takeover offer for global bank Standard Chartered The Dutch government is cutting its stake in ABN Amro to below 50%, after stepping in to rescue the bank during the 2008 financial crisis Norway Core inflation, which strips out changing energy prices and taxes, rose 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding the central bank's 5.9% expectation for January as well as the 6.1% average prediction among analysts polled by Reuters Markets : SPX500 : whole Twitterconomics.. talking about 'the big buyer of 4050 SPXputs for next week' expiry over the US CPI data - 4040 remain the pivot level for anything more major USD steady, though BoJ will matter for $ sentiment next week and of course U.S CPI Same for bonds, U.S CPI Crude a little better supported again, RU cuts coming The return to more productive deployment of capital will have to mean investing more in the real, physical world to accomplish the new set of supply chain and resource access imperatives, not pouring money into digital platforms that capture excess profits by monopolising markets and user attention. On that note, our equity strategist Peter Garnry looks at whether the multiple decades of underperformance for equities dealing in tangible assets is ending, with intangibles and financials set to underperform after decades of excess financialisation. He also pokes into the geographies that look the most interesting as supply chains diversify Where did it all go wrong for Credit Suisse? - SWI swissinfo.ch Management never actually did anything they promised they were going to do for over 10years? Risk off, BoJ Governor nominee, Adidas dump, SEK soars | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Riksbank starts active QT: In Sweden, the Riksbank delivered a 50bp rate hike as expected and new rate path broadly in line with expectations signalling another hike in April. More interestingly, they came with a hawkish surprise in the form of active QT, motivated to strengthen the SEK. The Riksbank decided to actively start selling their government bond holdings from April with a pace of SEK3bn per month in nominal SGBs and 0.5bn per month in inflation-linked government bonds. This can be put into relation to current holdings of SEK 288bn nominal SGBs and SEK45bn in linkers, and issuance from Debt Office of SEK2bn bi-weekly in nominal bonds and SEK0.5bn in linkers. According to the press release, the Riksbank will primarily sell longer maturities. The natural market reaction has been a steepening of the SGB curve and cheapening on ASW. See more in our Flash Comment Riksbank - a U-turn for SEK, 9 February. The RBA’s latest inflation and wage predictions help explain why Australia’s interest rate nightmare isn’t over | Interest rates | The Guardian CNBC International on Twitter: "Bank of Japan's Kuroda has 'set the stage' for his successor, says Jesper Koll of Monex Group. https://t.co/NzBWJPrhs6" / Twitter Jesper knows Japan inside out! West Lancashire by-election: Ashley Dalton easily holds seat for Labour - BBC News "AI Has Made Me LOSE HOPE.." | Joe Rogan & Elon Musk - YouTube Business and Trade Secretary signs landmark first partnership with EU nation to boost British exports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Not a trade deal to be clear but a UK-Italy Export and Investment partnership Adidas may take a $1.3 billion income hit if it might probably't shift its Yeezy inventory - Albuquerque Breaking News (breakingnewsalbuquerque.com) Kitchen sinked it ? maybe, worth a turnaround story ? valuations OK, but. lots of issues Lyft is making 'progress towards profitability, but it’s slow progress’: Analyst (yahoo.com) Uber earnings were good/positive, but Lyft down 30pct after hours.. U.K.'s FTSE 100 scaling fresh highs despite cost of living crisis (cnbc.com) because it's not UKcentric, more 'global' names in there! Hunt offers hope on pay settlements but rules out feeding inflation | Business News | Sky News UAE’s biggest bank says no takeover offer for global bank Standard Chartered (msn.com) Whaoo - OMG - Middle East Eye on Twitter: "The scale of just how strong the two earthquakes that struck #Syria and #Turkey were captured on CCTV. The ground is seen shaking and increasing in intensity before the camera is cut off. Live blog here⤵️ https://t.co/Mw5mY4WTZO https://t.co/J50AT4bDye" / Twitter USDJPY - 128/132JPY range - ''faites-vos-jeux, rien de va plus''

ECB deleveraging continues. ECB balance sheet has shrunk by another €18.6bn in the past week to €7,875.4bn as QE redemptions > QE reinvestments. Total assets now equate to 60.3% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 32.3%, SNB's 114.7%, BoJ's 132.4%, ECB BS going down faster then FED's balance-sheet !! Biden played a masterclass at the State of the Union - read below CS forecasts substantial net loss for 2023 Fed officials keep pushing back against any pivot expectations. Waller said rates may have to stay higher for longer, Williams called the Dec dot plot a good guide, adding that rates are "barely into restrictive" territory, Cook yesterday, said "we are not done yet.", Kashkari expects the peak to rise above 5% this year. Traders are starting to put big money on the possibility that the Fed tightening cycle has more room to run. Several hefty wagers that the peak rate will reach 6% — nearly a percentage point higher than the current consensus — have popped up this week in different ways, this is the key for markets, broadly speaking Terminal has been priced at 5.25% area, if we have to go to 6% it's a diff ball game Xi rejects "Westernization" and promotes China’s self reliance in new policy speech Remember the 'egg craze''..Wholesale egg prices have fallen by more than 50% since December, according to Urner Barry data Kashkari... “I pay attention to grocery prices. There is this large tray of lasagna that I used to buy that used to cost around $16. Now it’s around $21. That’s my own little measuring stick of how inflation is going,” he said.... really.. Fed's Williams: Financial conditions seem broadly consistent with the Fed's policy outlook, if financial conditions loosen too much, we would have to go higher on rates "one quote sums up the attitude of the Chinese consumer…. "No one even talks about covid anymore"." - GS Asia Economics analyst M2 and other money supply data forcing many to call for ''recession ''- these old data are not worth what they used to be in predicting anything serious..(not yet anyway with unemployment at 3.4%..) Zelenskiy pushes for swift EU membership in first trip to Brussels since invasion. And he has taken his request for fighter jets to France and Germany following his calls in the UK for more support to help his country’s struggle against Russia’s invasion JPMorgan snippet on AI:We are in the early stages of understanding the impacts of AI, let alone fully grasping the implications of the technology. From a business standpoint, AI could also prove VERY deflationary, not just for tech but for society (remains to be seen) Coinbase's CEO Cites 'Rumors' the SEC May Ban Crypto Staking for Retail Customers Greece bans parties with convicted leaders from running in elections Riksbank hikes rates 50Bps to 3.00%; as expected, classic behind the curve situation etc etc, now forced to overtighten >>> SEK has been battered last few months, EURSEK near multi all time highs (chart below) Markets : SPX500 4150 clean weekly break required for 4300 during Q2 >> Latest AAII weekly survey showed investors are net bullish again -- not only for the first time in nearly a year, but also the MOST bullish since Nov. 2021. DAX only 4-5% off all time highs! FTSE100 new all time highs BONDS steady, awaiting next week's U.S CPI, EZ inflation hedging lower as is expected by most market participants, 10y Bund getting back to 2.5% where it belongs, actually nearer to 3% probably more like it, but let's how goes from here Crude a little firmer/steady USDollar not exactly rallying beyond the short-covering post NFP so far... Well worth a read, if you haven't already - An Executive Summary In the introduction to this outlook for early 2023, Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen argues that our economic models and our assumptions for how market cycles are supposed to work are simply broken. And so should they be, as why should we even want to return to the ‘model’ of central banks engaging in moral hazard and bailing out incumbent wealth, rentiers and risk takers, the rinse-and-repeat we have seen in every cycle since Fed Chair Greenspan bailed out LTCM in 1998? This new post-pandemic and post-Ukraine invasion era we find ourselves in has brought an entirely new set of imperatives beyond bailouts and reinflating asset prices. Instead, we need to brace for the impact of higher inflation for longer as we scramble for supply chain reshoring and redundancy, and as we transform our energy systems to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and reduce our impact on the climate. And it won’t be all pain for all assets. Quite the contrary; it will bring a refreshing return of productive investment and a brighter future for everyone Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023 - The models are broken | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Republicans Turn Themselves into Props for Biden - POLITICO Love him or hate him..got to admit it was a clever play! 72 percent of viewers had positive reaction to Biden speech: CNN flash poll | The Hill Why Biden Wants to Quadruple Buyback Tax. It's a Potent Political Issue. | Barron's (barrons.com) Coinbase's (COIN) Brian Armstrong Cites 'Rumors' the SEC May Ban Retail Crypto Staking (coindesk.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB deleveraging continues. ECB Balance Sheet has shrunk by another €18.6bn in the past week to €7,875.4bn as QE redemptions > QE reinvestments. Total assets now equate to 60.3% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 32.3%, SNB's 114.7%, BoJ's 132.4%. https://t.co/IvQ1sco8he" / Twitter Xi Rejects Westernization in Show of Faith in Self Reliance (yahoo.com) Wholesale egg prices have 'collapsed' from record highs in December (cnbc.com) 'Alarming' increase in the number of fires caused by e-scooter and e-bike batteries | Science & Tech News | Sky News oh no! JOHN NICOLSON M.P. on Twitter: "Lots of BBC staff have been in touch with me. I told BBC Chair Richard Sharp what they thought of his appointment - a job gifted to him by Boris Johnson. Establishment pals helping pals helping pals. Donating money to pals. Getting jobs from pals. All deeply cosy. @commonsdcms https://t.co/iQku3RHTuT" / Twitter Credit Suisse posts massive annual loss as 'radical' restructure gets underway (cnbc.com) What else..Credit Suisse clients pull a record $120 billion in the fourth quarter, as a fifth-straight quarterly loss caps the Swiss lender's worst year since the financial crisis >>> HOWEVER, good news is leveraged ratios and so on in much better shape...so a clear deleveraging has happened, ready for the new old CS split CSFB direction etc etc, whether this is all good for shareholders is probably another discussion Alphabet Stock Plunge Erases $100 Billion After New AI Chatbot Gives Wrong Answer In Ad (forbes.com) MSCI to revise Adani Group weightings after free float review | Financial Times Greece bans parties with convicted leaders from running in elections (yahoo.com) EURSEK - Riksbank has been behind the curve all the way..

Powell : all about payrolls and CPI, watch those two key data set. Inflation is beginning to ease, but it will be a long process, all about data. Mr Market will continue to price probabilities on a soft, hard or no landing.. Powell, paraphrased: Despite many people believing (or hoping) the Fed's recent inflation projections were too high because inflation would come down faster, the Fed didn't see it that way and, given last week's job report, still doesn't Fed's Kashkari: - I wish we saw more evidence underlying inflation was trending down more. I am not lowering my rate path, it is still around 5.4% The earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria is the deadliest global seismic event in more than a decade as the official death toll surpasses 9,000. Turkey's stock exchange suspends trading for the first time in 24 years BP shares up nearly 7% yesterday >>> that "Back into Petroleum" is exactly what shareholders wanted then "With fourth-quarter results from more than half of the S&P 500 companies already in, earnings per share have fallen 2.8% from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s less than the 3.3% drop expected before earnings season began." /BBG Announced Stock buybacks more than tripled for January at $132B - a record - 15% higher than last January Fitch revises up China's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5%., joining other US invest houses in shifting growth forecasts higher #reopening Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands announced Tuesday that they plan to provide Ukraine with at least 100 refurbished Leopard 1 battle tanks in the coming months, a pledge that comes as Kyiv anticipates a new Russian offensive around the anniversary of its invasion Maersk, a global barometer for trade, posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead India has raised interest-rates by 0.25% to 6.5% Markets : SPX500 trying to push though 4150 for 4300 by summer ) pain trade still higher ? see argument put below...Europe continues to hold firm(er), Asia working out the China reopening situation still, overall it's full steam ahead USdollar had a brief rally for 30mins during Powell's presser, it is hard to rally beyond what's priced in already, unless market goes and price Terminal rate well above 5%..AUD right back neat 0.7000 levels after this week's hike, risk currencies, EMG (not all) overall in focus. USDJPY didn't manage to hold on to Sunday night's highs around 132.50, resistance still 131-132.50JPY area. BoJ nominees next week though! GBPCHF - it it's going to hold its from around here - chart below Crude rallies a little GOLD trying to recover from Friday's NFP sell-off - following rates/usd India's central bank raises interest rates and hints at possible further increases (thenationalnews.com) Is the pain trade still higher? JPM's cash trader Matt Reiner sums up trading sentiment: "...it feels like investors are “waiting for a pull back to buy” rather than “waiting on a rally to sell” and I think the logic is simple. Investors still are NOT long enough to feel comfortable laying off risk. In fact, the data continues to show investors are still markedly underperforming, and the gaps are widening – The two thematic baskets I’m watching closely are Momentum Short and PURE Beta Winners since they’ve been market leaders YTD and quality tends to follow – The VIX remains comfortably below 20 – The TICK has spent nearly all morning in the RED – We remain thoroughly elevated above the SPX Golden Cross – It feels like there are a lot of mixed signals out there, but the pain trade remains up." Stock Market: Powell’s speech was hawkish. Investors' mood was bullish (cnbc.com) NO not really, certainly not relative to what was priced in all this hawkish & dovish stuff depends on what anyone wants to twist a few words to suit their own narrative, its all about pricing State of the Union 2023: Joe Biden calls for unity as he urges Congress to finish economic fightback (msn.com) Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023 - The models are broken | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Look beyond what those models are suppose to tell investors... Let's be clear the FED sets policy for the next couple of meetings, always has, always will, particularly in fast moving economies, no matter what people want to hear on daily or weekly basis. Mr Market sets a policy, a view, a pricing, a curve for the next 18months.. Yahoo Finance on Twitter: "Pres. Biden on the Corporate Minimum Tax and the Billionaire's Minimum Tax proposal: https://t.co/PGkiMuYLWA" / Twitter Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the 9th time, 25 bps increase to 3.35%. https://t.co/CBsEXwW5FY" / Twitter 'God is neither male nor female': Church of England is considering gender-neutral terms | UK News | Sky News PM Modi should nationalise all assets of Adani Group and then auction it for sale: Subramanian Swamy | India News - Times of India (indiatimes.com) Gautam Adani’s woes were in banks' plain sight | Reuters >>> Barclays, StanChart, Deutsche Bank and others helped Gautam Adani supersize his empire. A $110 bln share rout exposes their willingness to take a narrow view of risk on lucrative relationships. The questions will get louder Germany, Denmark, Netherlands pledge Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine as it braces for new Russian assault to mark war's one-year anniversary - MarketWatch What a terrible terrible earthquake Turkey earthquake: Rescuers gave little boy water from a bottle cap - BBC News Turkey and Syria earthquake: death toll rises to 8,700 as hundreds of thousands left homeless by disaster – latest updates (theguardian.com) Maersk, a global barometer for trade, posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead (msn.com) NICE - welcome news to start the day! Executive Board of Hapag-Lloyd AG resolves to propose a dividend distribution of EUR 63 per share to the Annual General Meeting 2023 (yahoo.com) Va. poised to ban foreign adversaries from buying farmland (thehill.com) Good catch ! New Zealand police find 3.2 tonnes of cocaine floating in the Pacific Ocean | Evening Standard GBPCHF - if it is going to hold it will ahve to be from around here!

"After the shockingly strong NFP report, our economists added a 25bp hike to their expectations and moved the expected terminal rate to 5.0-5.25%" --JPM, same at MS : Friday's jobs report caused Ellen Zentner's team at Morgan Stanley "to change our baseline forecast from a pause to a 25bp hike at the March FOMC." It also boosted the chance of bigger hikes ahead "& the possibility that following a Fed pause the next move will be up, not down" Bostic says strong jobs report may spur Fed to raise interest rates even higher RBA raises interest rates as expected, says more hikes in store, Philippine annual inflation blew past expectations in January to reach a fresh 14-year high on surging food prices, raising the chance of the central bank delivering a larger interest rate hike to tame prices when it meets this month & Japan reports biggest jump in nominal wages in more than a quarter century! will they really keep on with YCC, BoJ ? >> sticky inflation in Asia too >>>Japan's govt to present nominees for next #BOJ governor and two deputy governors to parliament next week Russia sold 3.63 tons of GOLD from wealth fund in January Switzerland hasn't had landfills since 2000 50% of their municipal waste is recycled, and 50% is incinerated to produce electricity The world’s biggest miners spent years calling for consolidation in a fragmented industry. Newmont’s $17 billion Newcrest Mining offer suggests it’s finally starting to happen on a significant scale The Rothschilds look to take their French investment bank private in a $4 billion deal just a few months after a family head died Chinese households' bank deposits surged by ¥18 tln last year, ¥8 tln more than 2021 and about ¥36K per family. Money was saved from less consumption, fewer home purchases, and less financial investments/Thread Markets : Macro Data remains volatile, China fast reopening, U.S recession, no recession, soft, hard, no landing, Russia/UKR impact, inflation remains sticky across world Equity markets have had a massive rally last 4months, further repricing of rates might well tip 'duration' again sooner or later USD mixed after Friday outside day, AUD a little higher on RBA, USDJPY a little softer (all about BoJ nominees next week), GBP remains under pressure UST 2y yields up about 35-40bps in 2 trading days post NFP and ISM - fierce repricing Plenty of ECB speakers today and Powell later on Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023 - The models are broken | Saxo Group (home.saxo) well worth going through it, great insight from Steen at Saxo >> Summary: Models are used everywhere in the financial world. But what do you do when the models you use don't work anymore? That's what this Quarterly Outlook is all about RBA raises interest rates as expected, says more hikes in store By Investing.com Bostic says strong jobs report may spur Fed to raise interest rates even higher (msn.com) Japan's December real wages post first rise in 9 months on 26-year-high nominal growth - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Philippine Inflation Beats Expectations, Lifts Chance Of Bigger Rate Hike (ibtimes.com) "Forward EPS growth has just gone negative. This has only previously happened 4 times over the past 23 yrs. In each prior instance (2001, '08, '15, '20), equities have faced significant price downside associated w/the shift from positive to negative earnings growth:" MS's Wilson Cyclicals riskier than growth stocks: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson (cnbc.com) Russia Racks Up $25 Billion Budget Gap as Oil Export Price Cap Hits Hard - Bloomberg How Russia Is Surviving the Tightening Grip on Its Oil Revenue - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Gemini to contribute $100 million to Genesis bankruptcy recovery plan (cnbc.com) The Rothschilds look to take their French investment bank private in a $4 billion deal just a few months after a family head died (yahoo.com) Gene Ma on Twitter: "Chinese households' bank deposits surged by ¥18 tln last year, ¥8 tln more than 2021 and about ¥36K per family. Money was saved from less consumption, fewer home purchases, and less financial investments. https://t.co/pZRFQVQsg6" / Twitter Javier Blas on Twitter: "The thing with oil and gas is that they make a lot of money. Even BP CEO Bernard Looney has realized. And hence, quite a turn-around in strategy. $BP puts some fine words about renewables. But this is a company that has gone from "Beyond Petroleum" to "Back to Petroleum". https://t.co/QV02PhQ2Wo" / Twitter and BP profits more than double as energy prices surge - live updates (telegraph.co.uk) Absolute disaster in Turkey's deadly 7.8 magnitude earthquake was so strong that its energy could power New York City for more than 4 days, seismologist says (yahoo.com) India's PM Modi Comes Under India Opposition Fire Over Adani Links - Bloomberg have a great day TeamPVM

Mr Market came closer to FED view, after very firm ISM and payrolls on Friday, namely that the very strong employment picture will keep economy and inflation firm for longer...looked like a turn on the $$ on Friday JPY - Japan sounds out BOJ deputy Amamiya for central bank governor. Final discussion underway for nomination of Kuroda's successor, he is someone who believes strongly in YCC, Amamiya is the architect of most of the BOJ’s policies under Kuroda (articles and news not all that clear btw, stay tuned)>>> lifted USDJPY further over week-end, this after very strong U.S job data and ISM on Friday (no recession...), USD, GOLD, all corrected pretty sharply, risk of even changing recent trend altogether, NFP increased the possibility of a soft-landing scenario where the economy avoids a severe recession while inflation/wage growth should continue to moderate (higher for longer..) "Goldman Sachs reports that Thursday saw the single heaviest day of short-covering activity by hedge-fund clients in a decade.", FOMO still alive last week! The more than $110bn wipeout of billionaire Gautam Adani’s companies follows other spectacular stock collapses set off by short sellers, like Enron and Wirecard, Bloomberg reports The autumn bull was about chasing Dow stuff while NASDAQ did nothing. The 2023 bull is all about chasing those old laggards, while the Dow is doing nothing. This creates more and more P/L pain as big capital isn't capturing these shifts quickly enough... In the context of all the debate, and different views, on the state of the US economy... ...it is remarkable how stable rate pricing by end-2023 has been. (just suck in 4.50-5.00% range for months now) / Thread Spy balloon fallout blows US-China diplomacy further off course. Beijing is likely to be just starting a long howl at Washington for downing with fighter jets what China says was a research ‘airship’ Hackers Target Thousands of Computers; Italy Calls Meeting Renault and Nissan sign a deal aimed at easing longstanding tensions between the two companies Competition to make raw materials for EV batteries is taking a potentially dangerous turn amid softening markets for critical commodities such as lithium and nickel Markets : VIX and SPX higher >>> so players buying underlying but buying protection too The S&P GSCI index, one of the most widely used & comprehensive commodity price indices, is back down to where it was in early December before all the China reopening chatter started... EURUSD , below 21dma around 1.0830, previously mentioned ; key medium-term support & trend line 1.0750 (chart), EURO net longs futures positions from AM's and leverage names is huge (pls ask for more charts if you wish to) USDJPY - up and away - if you can handle (med to long-term position) 128JPY, stay long USDJPY now, add 135+ (chart) 2y UST yields jumped 25bps on Friday, ''repricing higher for longer'' - for duration, the end of 2023 and 2024 matters most Japan sounds out BOJ deputy Amamiya for central bank governor - Nikkei Asia China’s Weather Service Head Relieved of Duty Amid Tensions (thedailybeast.com) US non-farm payrolls jump by 517,000 in January - Sharecast.com Mass layoffs at U.S. tech giants help startups secure IT talent - Nikkei Asia (9) New Hampshire GOP governor calls Biden's balloon strategy 'too little too late' (cnn.com) RENAULT GROUP: Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance open a new chapter for their partnership (yahoo.com) EV battery material suppliers brace for gluts as competition heats up - Nikkei Asia Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰🇺🇸🇺🇦 on Twitter: "In the context of all the debate, and different views, on the state of the US economy... ...it is remarkable how stable rate pricing by end-2023 has been. (just suck in 4.50-5.00% range for months now) https://t.co/Ag9MbBmBKL" / Twitter Ukrainian refugees take canton to court over low benefits - SWI swissinfo.ch Iran supreme leader issues conditional 'amnesty' for protesters (msn.com) Thatcherites join rebellion against Rishi Sunak’s promise to slash EU red tape (telegraph.co.uk) Turkey earthquake: More than 500 dead as 7.8-magnitude earthquake hits country's south | CNN Adani rout deepens despite Indian efforts to defend conglomerate (cnbc.com) Cyber Security Hacking News: Italy Says Systems Attacked - Bloomberg EURUSD 1.0750 USDJPY - up and away - if you can handle (med to long-term position) 128JPY, stay long USDJPY now, add 135+

Powell : "it would be... very premature to declare victory" on inflation but "the disinflationary process has started" and "It’s very difficult to manage the risk of doing too little and finding out in six or 12 months that we actually were close but didn’t get the job done. If we feel like we’ve gone too far . . . inflation is coming down faster than we expect, then we have tools that would work on that" >> so he kind of claimed victory! mentioning disinflation a few times too, he aligned words and actions..pretty straight talking, market got caught with its universal hawkish expectations (and thus short rates and risk), all flipped during presser with Pow's constructive chatter Powell put the breaks on, so the only question is whether Christine 'says' a similar message after the 50bps hike, same for BoE where most think 50bps, though a 25bps hike IMHO does not look too far fetched.. (probably too early for any shift there at mom from ECB, maybe within 2months though..) The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates again and pencil in more hikes for the next few months, with the only open question being how big these will be U.S. Jan. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: 106K, [Est. 178K, Prev. 235K, weaker, came out ahead of FOMC yesterday and set the tone... Germans Buy record amount of Gold! Central Bank buying 2nd highest level in history Adani stock losses hit $100bn after company calls off share sale, this is going to cost a few banks holding collateral in the group...Citigroup’s wealth arm stops accepting Adani securities as collateral for margin loans, joining Credit Suisse in stepping up scrutiny of the group... Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is making this the ‘year of efficiency’ Hong Kong will give away 50,0000 free airline tickets to tourists around the world, welcoming them to travel to Hong Kong, chief executive of the HKSAR John Lee announced on Thursday Goldman Sachs reiterates its forecast for Brent to hit $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter, saying oil will benefit as colder weather spurs demand BoJ Deputy Gov Wakatabe: need to be cautious about another YCC Band Widening Markets : Mr Market got caught short UST's and risk going into FOMC, Powell straight talking, not more hawkish than many were looking for, given positioning, and here we are - early days - META helped last night (up nearly 20%..), AMZN and APPL next amongst others >>> let' see now IF following days validate the market reaction from the event yesterday (and probably today too) from a macro point of view..broadly speaking nothing from Powell yesterday that changes the mood since #peakinflation #peakusd #peak worries of last Sep/Oct..and momentum from the start in Jan >>> softer USD, risk does ok, GOLD higher, duration joins in on lower yields USD weaker, GOLD higher, Copper softer (weaker growth signals ahead) Equity markets rallied, DOW flat, with 10's rally in 10y bonds, duration got a boost, QQQ shorts mainly squeezed, new longs established on break-up. QQQ off to the races/break up on techs, Mr Market was short as rates got smashed in Jan... no wonder reaction, irrelevant of anyone's view on the day.. #duration Crude near lows - worth building a few friendly longs from here GOLD could well be on its way to retest March 2022 highs NatGas prices are all the way back down to where we were in early 2021, US NatGas down 40pct or so in Jan ! ECB to raise rates again — but the real focus is on what Lagarde says – POLITICO Powell didn't sound as preoccupied as some commentators have been about recent easing as measured by certain FCI "Financial conditions didn’t really change much from the December meeting to now. They mostly went sideways or up and down, but came out in roughly the same place." Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Daleep Singh: “Markets rallied fiercely despite the hawkish message because investors know the Fed isn’t omniscient nor is it dogmatic. Economic conditions are in charge when the Fed is in data-dependent mode.” https://t.co/vfjPjO1Diu" / Twitter >>> Arguably, his big opportunity came early in the Q&A, when he was asked if he was worried that financial conditions had eased. This appeared to be a straightforward opportunity for him to say “yes” and browbeat the market, if he wanted to, he didn't Jeffrey Gundlach on Twitter: "Here is the yield change in the UST market over the past 3 months: Two Year: Down 54 bp Five Year: Down 83 bp Ten Year: Down. 71 bp Thirty Year: Down 59 bp Fed Funds: Up 75 bp Message seems clear." / Twitter BOJ's Wakatabe: No change to ultra-easy policy commitment (msn.com) Economists detect dovish undertones from ‘more optimistic’ Jay Powell | Financial Times (ft.com) Germans Buy Record Amount Of Gold! Central Bank Buying 2nd Highest Level In History! | King World News George Monbiot RIPS APART Rishi Sunak's First 100 Days (doubledown.news) Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is making this the ‘year of efficiency’ (msn.com) Indian Tycoon Gautam Adani Pulls $2.5B Share Sale in Flagship Company (businessinsider.com) Strikes, seatbelts and sleaze: Rishi Sunak’s first 100 days as PM – podcast | News | The Guardian Mattia Nelles on Twitter: "The brilliant @berdynskykh_k summarizes the mood of town today: Can we hold the EU-Ukraine summit every week?) Because this parade of searches is a pleasure to watch.) What is she referring to? A small summary of today, a day of plenty of searches, arrests and dismissals🤡 /1" / Twitter CNBC International on Twitter: "Oil market looks like it is in 'pretty good shape,' says Paul Sankey of Sankey Research. https://t.co/WeaxhG6Stg" / Twitter have a great end to the week Steph & Team

Tesla EVs, even mildly damaged, are being written off by Insurance Companies - Insurers are increasingly concluding that a broken Tesla is too expensive to fix ECB: Rising rates are making a substantial dent on loan demand -Loan demand to drop further in Q1 with "strong net decline" seen for loans to households - BLS There was to be a historical energy crisis in 2022, then we had this : Eurozone’s Economy Outpaced China and U.S. in 2022...The currency-area grew at a faster clip than its global peers, reversing traditional positions/WSJ Riksbank: High inflation and rising rates are testing the resilience of the Swedish financial system. English page not visible Norway's sovereign wealth fund lost $164bn last year, citing volatile markets ECB balance-sheet size lower again/deleveraging continues, lower by another €65bn in the past week to €7,900bn...Total assets stills equate to 60% of Eurozone GDP UK and EU set for Northern Ireland Brexit deal. Breakthroughs on customs and court disputes Adani rout erases $79bn in mkt cap from all 10 stocks tied to the billionaire’s Adani Group – a third of group value as completion of a key share sale failed to lessen concerns about Hindenburg Research’s fraud allegations EZ inflation slowed to 8.5% YoY in Jan, more than expected, suggesting a more heated debate to come at ECB meeting over how much more interest rates must still rise as Core CPI - a gauge of underlying inflation that excludes volatile items - held at ATH of 5.2%. (BBG) Markets : MOVE index (bond vols), remember peak worries, peak inflation in early October ? essentially the index has moved from 160 to 100 - see chart below - stunning sell-off, financials conditions improved, USD sold-off and risk rallied, duration recovered hard with inversion of the curve...all the same trade USDollar stays soft, not softer, all about Powell, if as expected, Mr Market will quickly try to push lower again BONDS..various part of the curve at play..which will influence duration/QQQ one way or another Equity markets, well within recent defined ranges, market wants to test higher on a 'soft' Powell >>> SPX500 3850 vs 4150 will cover it for now Crude slightly softer, recent inflation data, average earnings and so on a little softer, but beware it is 'softer than excessively high levels in last 6months, it is not exactly much lower..yet anyway, and employment remains strong >>> so a bit of patience IMHO might be required for now, hence Powell likely to avoid to be too dovish, if at all, lets see how goes PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) few nice charts there, as per usual Macro Insights: Central banks on the agenda – Fed, ECB and Bank of England | Saxo Markets SG (home.saxo) Jerome Powell likely to stress Fed's inflation fight far from over - Washington Times MOVE Index Charts and Quotes — TradingView hell of a move last 3months, after 'peak worries' in October.. though it could continue relative to 2021 levels... decision time soon! Tesla EVs, Even Mildly Damaged, Being Written Off by Insurers (caranddriver.com) Meccanica on Twitter: "I just want to know who's responsible for designing CCS. What engineer developed this and thought this was a good idea? 💡 https://t.co/hYhbavUXbx" / Twitter Eurozone mortgage demand falls at record pace | Financial Times (ft.com) No surprise, like everywhere else.. Jacob Silverman on Twitter: "Bankrupt Alameda demands repayment of $445.8 million in loans made to bankrupt Voyager, which previously loaned to Alameda, but was repaid after going bankrupt. Everyone owes everyone and no one has real money. https://t.co/sWSy58B4dL https://t.co/91cxsql2pr" / Twitter UK and EU 'reach customs deal that could end Northern Ireland logjam' - Belfast Live and... Strikes UK today: Train drivers, royal mail and teachers join biggest walkout in decade | The Independent Heroin is now legal in Vancouver – and addicts are celebrating (telegraph.co.uk) really..?

Risk reduction ahead of Central Banks show + full steam ahead with earnings season Goldman Sachs raise China equity index target, 'reopening' evolves into 'growth recovery' Wilson thinks we will soon have the final leg of this bear market. "...Bottom line, we double down on our thesis, which is now out of consensus again, based on sentiment and positioning. With month end this week taking some pressure off active managers to keep chasing this rally that is based on a narrative that started in October from much lower valuations, it's time to fade it...A pause is very different this time given the fact the Fed is still doing QT and remains unlikely to cut rates in the absence of a recession. In short, we think the Fed meeting this week will be a reminder of that fact." (Wilson, Morgan Stanley) Adani Rout Hits $68 Billion as Fight With Hindenburg Intensifies. Most Adani stocks declined again on Monday, flagship gained. The conglomerate’s dollar bonds also extended a plunge Central banks bought the most gold since 1967 last year, WGC says German retail sales collapsed by 5.3% MoM in Dec, French household consumption declined 0.9% QoQ in Q4, Spanish household consumption declined 1.8% QoQ in Q4. ...the European consumers succumbed to the income shock !!..Swiss Retail Sales Real (Y/Y) Dec: -2.8% (prevR -1.4%) Macron's pension-reform plan is tested by more and intensifying protests, but the president is digging in The Great British Walkout: Rishi Sunak braces for biggest UK strike in 12 years. Under-fire UK prime minister rejects talk of national ‘decline’ as 500,000 public sector workers prepare to walk out. And to make things worst (ok it's the IMF..), UK will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, warns IMF Traders are turning more bullish on the pound on hopes the UK and the EU will strike a post-Brexit trading deal for Northern Ireland, according to Nomura/BBG Markets : NASDAQ topped at 200dma, traded just above it/sucked a few people in, and sold-off relatively hard yesterday. Biggest earnings week in the season, today we are expecting Exxon, UPS, General Motors Co and Caterpillar before market open and Pfizer, McDonalds, Spotify, AMD, Snap, Amgen, EA, after the close. "Tape feels fragile at the moment with S&P top of book liquidity touching $3mm intraday today (ytd low)." - GS FICC USDollar risk higher in short-term on a more hawkish Powell and past month-end flows / positioning too short $. CTA's model showing large long positions in EURO vs almost anything (which has been perfect, on the back of hawkish ECB etc and weak usd momentum) UST yields, all about the 6-24months part of the curve, will Powell make the market rethink the cuts priced in after this summer ?, However, please note that Hedge funds have the biggest net short position on US treasuries ahead of the FED meeting/BBG IF ever there was a time, now is time to fade a few things, it's all the same trade though! short #NASDAQ go long a few USDollars (cover some shorts..) and #steepeners on but tricky along the curves, which part of the curve, You are not alone if you do, Kolanovic doubles down on the consensus bearish call, says "YTD rally may fade". Others calling for a drop are MS, GS, and BofA >>> IMHO, reduce positions a little going into this big big week/ and early February, and see what comes, have room to add on silly dips/don't chase from here... consensus pretty clear, everyone expects FED to do 25bps and sound hawkish Worth considering.. when looking for what has rallied hard in Jan 2023 : ARKK +25% ytd TSLA +50% ytd and the likes of BYND +30% , SPX500 up 5% Central banks bought the most gold since 1967 last year, WGC says | The Mighty 790 KFGO | KFGO IMF on Twitter: "🆕 The IMF projects global growth to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023, and then rise to 3.1% in 2024. Inflation is peaking amid low growth. Read our analysis in the World Economic Outlook Update. https://t.co/4ifKc9qi4j #WEO https://t.co/5tdSaw0Q81" / Twitter https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/the-adani-saga--answers-to-some-of-the-key-questions-for-foreign-investors-30012023 This is like... whaoo.. Adani Enterprises had just a $3.5 billion market cap pre covid pandemic in 2019, it's now near $40 billion, and that's after the plunge in recent week Millions of families in leasehold homes set to get greater powers to buy them outright | Daily Mail Online it could be some sort of game change for many, that is fair to say UK faces 2023 recession, warns IMF, despite brightening world economy; France’s growth slows – business live (theguardian.com) Ukraine war: Joe Biden rules out sending F-16 fighter jets - BBC News UBS gets a boost from higher rates, but lower client activity brings down revenues (msn.com) Hong Kong to Ban CBD, Label It a 'Dangerous Drug' | Time France braces for fresh strikes, protests against Macron's pension reform (msn.com) The Great British Walkout: Rishi Sunak braces for biggest UK strike in 12 years – POLITICO Ford Cuts Prices, Boosts Production Of Mustang Mach-E (sfgate.com) Hunt’s tax raid means UK will be only major economy to shrink this year, says IMF (telegraph.co.uk) 24heures LAUSANNE | E-paper EURUSD sub 1.0750 will not be welcome by longs/CTA's etc - USDJPY would need 132JPY+ for a similar upset etc

Very busy week ahead : early Q4 GDP data, inflation and employment data in EZ, ahead of FOMC Wed (25bps nailed on), ECB (50bps on Thursday (and 50bps more to come) and finally BoE to hike 50bps (and call for a pause most likely, end of hikes near etc) Swiss KOF Leading Indicator Jan: 97.2 (est 93.4; prevR 91.5), Spain’s inflation unexpectedly edged up in January, breaking a string of five consecutive months of falls, due to higher gasoline prices as the government’s fuel subsidies were scaled back..CPI rose 5.8% (4.7% expected!).. in January on year by European Union-harmonized standards, that's set-up for EZ CPI later on this week The new 2023 FOMC voters are Harker, Kashkari and Logan, not as hawkish perhaps as the likes of Bullard and George who are going, but definitely not dovish bunch, risk from here is FED makes the market rethink those ''cuts already priced in doe 2023 n '24..''>>> markets have priced in a soft landing and soft Fed since late Sep/early Oct ( #peakusd #peakinflation #peakworries etc) >>> bonds rally, equity markets rally (duration, QQQ etc)..be careful out there, if FED and Co are more hawkish than many think presently UK Wage Inflation Points to Another Big Rate Hike This Week. Bank of England expected to raise key rate to 4% on Thursday Market racking up technical points, storyline turns from “Fed tightening into slowdown, S&P caught in downtrend” to “Fed almost done in a firm patch, index working to break trend.” This week will help tell if the shift is real With or without sanctions, China will try to become self sufficient in semiconductors. After all, it has been upfront about its pursuit of self sufficiency/dominance in all key technologies. The West can influence the speed at which China gets there, not its commitment / Greg Yip The balance sheet of the Bank of Japan is approaching 140% of GDP (from 110% early last year) Total German retail deposits rose to €2.71tn at end-2022, another all-time-high "Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds Rate exceeding the CPI” Stanley Druckenmiller Jerome Powell’s China problem is just beginning-China’s reopening threatens second global inflation wave that Fed won’t be able to contain without causing a recession Markets : NASDAQ taking on trendline and 200dma (we've rallied well over 10pct in last 3weeks..), SPX500 went through those resistance levels last week, beware timing (just before Fed and CB meetings - short covering mostly?)>>> S&P494 fwd P/E ? see below, you don't want to own the big boys in reality USD has remained soft, making only marginal new lows in last week or so, trend is lower, BUT beware Jan positioning turnaround in new month & CB meetings UST's same as above, let's take 10's, probably a floor around 3.40/3.50% area, steepeners will come back into fashion if FED reinforces the hawkish side Commods had a strong month on China reopening story, Crude WTI stead around $80 S&P500 trades at 17x forward P/E S&P494 trades at about 12x forward P/E We often discussed the APPL case months ago and spoke with many of you on the tél..... but this is excellent stuff again from Alf on Twitter: "The S&P 500 trades at 17x forward P/E. The S&P 494 trades at 13x forward P/E." / Twitter Wifey on Twitter: "BIG BOYS ARE NOT BUYING THIS GS prime brokerage data shows that the professional investor community is not ready to chase this rally ... this tactic served well in 2022 ... chart below of the GS PB L/S ratio vs rolling $SPX returns. https://t.co/ISOvZ3vUQL" / Twitter Jerome Powell’s China problem is just beginning – Asia Times Spain inflation unexpectedly accelerated in January on higher fuel prices - MarketWatch Investors bet the Fed doom loop they've been trapped in will end in the week ahead (cnbc.com) Michael J. Kramer on Twitter: "$SP500 - The Fed Needs To Send An Extremely Hawkish Message To Markets https://t.co/satl7aem8v" / Twitter Kantro on Twitter: "Soft landings 🟩 have only occurred in the wake of a Fed tightening cycle when inflation was muted. 1966, 1985, 1995, and 2019. Things could be different for other reasons; I’ll believe it when I see it. So far #HOPE is playing out in sequence. #macro #pivotwindow https://t.co/xfnEcHr6g3" / Twitter we all hope for a soft landing clearly Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good morning from #Germany, where Germans were able to save even more money despite high #inflation. Total retail deposits rose to €2.71tn at end-2022, another ATH. However, the increase of 2.5% in 2022 was far below inflation rate of 7.9% for 1st time since statistics began. https://t.co/pg63ScV1Le" / Twitter UK Bank Mortgage Interest Rates and Loan News - Bloomberg Four New Voters Joining the Fed's Policy Group (yahoo.com) Adani Group: How The World’s 3rd Richest Man Is Pulling The Largest Con In Corporate History – Hindenburg Research Adani Group says Hindenburg fraud claim 'calculated attack on India' - BBC News Harry Scoffin on Twitter: "Phenomenal intervention from @michaelgove in the Sunday Times today. The Conservatives could actually win the next general election if they follow through on leasehold abolishment and free 10 million households who live under this iniquitous system, a relic of serfdom. https://t.co/0TbFc46Hq8" / Twitter >>>> this could be a big winner for the tories.. this isn't though... James O'Brien on Twitter: "Not a single syllable of contrition or apology. Criticises a newspaper headline but doesn’t even mention the behaviour that got him sacked. Remarkable." / Twitter Greg Ip on Twitter: "With or without sanctions, China will try to become self sufficient in semiconductors. After all, it has been upfront about its pursuit of self sufficiency/dominance in all key technologies. The West can influence the speed at which China gets there, not its commitment." / Twitter have a super start to the week Team PVM