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  • BoC peak / Chevron buyback / Kolanovic not a bull / TSLA 'beat' / Copper

    Tesla reported better-than expected profits in the latest quarter, even as it gave mixed signals on the outlook for growth in vehicle deliveries Former Fed economist John Roberts: What if inflation comes down faster than the Fed expects? (thread below) Japanese PM Kishida said this morning that he will create the environment for above inflation pay rises and the government will work closely with the BoJ to actively manage policy Half-term ski holidays in France are facing disruption after lift operators announced "unlimited" strikes in resorts next month over Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms Natural disasters caused $313 bln economic loss in 2022 - Aon Chevron announces $75 billion stock buyback, dividend boost ‘Outright negative’ on stocks: JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic braces for correction, hard landing Bank Of Canada At The Peak India’s Adani Group is exploring legal action against US investor Hindenburg Research after its report accused firms owned by Asia's richest man of “brazen” market manipulation and accounting fraud Markets : SPX500 'short gamma' making daily move a little worrying, but slowly working through resistance, grinding higher/momentum should take us towards 4150 area again. Markets holding up pretty overall, VIX lower, UST yields soft USD remains weak overall, hard to see why this should change in near future. Even CABLE testing big resistance levels around 1.2425 area, AUD up and away etc Commods broadly speaking firmer too-China reopens, Copper higher GOLD steady/higher still Adani Group Stocks Tumble on Hindenburg’s Short Call - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) Bank Of Canada At The Peak | Seeking Alpha Fear of BOJ Turning Hawkish Spurs 94% Jump in Shorter Bond Sales - Bloomberg Chevron announces $75 billion stock buyback, dividend boost (msn.com) Musk: Tesla price cuts boost sales despite weak economy - BBC News Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Former Fed economist John Roberts: What if inflation comes down faster than the Fed expects? He says it isn't his base case, but in this blog post, he works through how the Fed might respond if there's a very rapid disinflation this year https://t.co/0iZcEunsej" / Twitter Natural disasters caused $313 billion economic loss (rte.ie) ‘Two or three Met officers to appear in court each week’ as force bids to reform | Evening Standard Outright Negative: JPMorgan's Kolanovic sees correction, hard landing (cnbc.com) wasn't he all bullish last 18months.. At least 24 civil servants involved in complaints against Dominic Raab, say sources | Dominic Raab | The Guardian Nadhim Zahawi tax row: Rishi Sunak's integrity is taking a hit as he prolongs the pain over Tory party chairman | Politics News | Sky News Tesla's Aggressive Price Cuts Worked As Demand Is up (businessinsider.com) Tesla seeks rapid output boost as profit beats estimates – The Irish Times Schiff blasts Facebook for ending Trump’s suspension: ‘tragic decision’ | The Hill Copper

  • Oz, Kiwi, Swedish inflation higher / MSFT weak guidance / BoE PF.. / Lula questions CB / NYSE

    -Sticky inflation!.. Q4 2022 inflation data from Australia : higher..headline and both of the core measures are all above expected. Headline 1.9% Q-q-Q vs expectations of 1.6% q/q. For the Y-o-Y it was 7.8% vs expectations of 7.5%, prior 7.3%. Swedish PPI (M/M) Dec: 2.1% (prev 2.0%), Y-o-Y Dec: 18.7% (prev 19.5%) and in Zew Zealand, CPI increased 7.2 percent in the 12 months to December 2022 >>> ''more must be done'' will be heard in financial markets.. -NYSE’s Tuesday trading glitch explained, hope no-one got hurt yesterday! suspect many of you missed it but it did happen -Redrow is first UK Housebuilder to announces Heat Pumps as standard -BoE's pension fund took a £1.5bn hit from derivatives -The UBS Evidence Lab data measure of job openings has been moving down steadily since Q2 of last year. The BLS measure of openings has lagged and may be overstating labor market tightness (chart-thread) -Morgan Stanley: Stocks in emerging markets are set to be this decade’s winners -Finland ‘re-thinking’ NATO bid without Sweden causes storm -Microsoft expects revenue dip as Azure cloud growth slows in December quarter and weaker guidance -U.S., Berlin expected to give tanks to Ukraine; Russia preparing 'new wave of aggression,' Kyiv says -Lula Questions Advantages for Brazil of Independent Central Bank -Strike over pay at Berlin airport grounds all flights -operator, Italy is bracing for two days of disruptions as gas station operators across the country started a strike late Tuesday to protest against a new policy introduced by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government and so many of these kind of stories around..too many! Markets : SPX500 still in those same levels, MSFT guidance weak, and must be followed for sentiment across markets. Sentiment ca swerve pretty quickly, it's Jan after all and so many unknown and almost binary outcome on macro side in weeks / months ahead USD remains soft overall, but all within similar levels, apart from AUD breaking up overnight Bonds, in general, may start to notice unwelcome sticky inflation in Australia, Kiwiland and Sweden this morning, and this FED repricing ? NYSE's Tuesday trading glitch explained (cnbc.com) Lula Questions Advantages for Brazil of Independent Central Bank (yahoo.com) not a good idea.. Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Panzer: Deutschland macht Weg frei für Leopard-Lieferungen an Ukraine - Video - WELT Australia: Inflation rise means more rate hikes for the Reserve Bank of Australia | Snap | ING Think FxMacro on Twitter: "The UBS Evidence Lab data measure of job openings has been moving down steadily since Q2 of last year. The BLS measure of openings has lagged and may be overstating labor market tightness. https://t.co/VQ9zf1HBPX" / Twitter Bank of England pension fund took £1.5bn hit from derivatives | Business | The Times just couldn't make this up ! Microsoft expects revenue dip as Azure cloud growth slows in December quarter (msn.com) Redrow is first UK Housebuilder to announces Heat Pumps as Standard - PropertyWire Tesla plans $3.6bn Nevada expansion to make batteries, Semi truck - Nikkei Asia Japan 'seriously considering' upgrading ASEAN ties: envoy - Nikkei Asia First Tory MP publicly calls for Nadhim Zahawi to go - 'too many unanswered questions' over tax affairs | Politics News | Sky News why is he still there?.. Nadhim Zahawi - a brief history: “I have paid my taxes in full” “HMRC have not investigated me” “There was no settlement” “There were no offshore funds” “Stop asking questions or I’ll sue you!” “Oh, you mean THAT £27million, how careless of me” Amazon workers stage first-ever strike in the UK over pay, working conditions (cnbc.com) Brunt Ice Shelf: Giant iceberg breaks away from Antarctic ice shelf | World News | Sky News Wyoming lawmakers's bill seeks to ban all electric vehicles by 2035 | Financial Post crickey! Finland ‘re-thinking’ NATO bid without Sweden causes storm – EURACTIV.com OBR reportedly plans to revise growth forecasts and warns Jeremy Hunt to expect a bleaker economic future - great! Budget blow: Government forecasters 'over-estimated prospects for growth' (telegraph.co.uk) Classified documents found at Pence’s Indiana home | The Hill Oz up and away - might be worth looking at AUDcrosses actually

  • Fed's Waller 25bps / #EURCHF / #XAUUSD / #MSFT after the close / SPX500 4'050+ big test

    Fed Governor Waller backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting, 25bps now nailed on, while ECB talks 50bps.. BoA : ''Trading the Twilight Zone: we are in the trickiest part of the investment cycle: tightening ending but easing far from beginning, inflation over but recession not yet begun, China reopen vs US recession…little wonder Wall St narratives changing quicker than a TikTok video; investor conviction remains in a huge bear market; and tail risks to consensus high'' MS : “While consensus shifts to a less negative stance amid a weaker dollar, China's reopening and the more stable (but lagging) hard data, we focus on the leading macro and earnings indicators which are now overwhelmingly weak—a dynamic the market is not priced for” Ken Griffin's Citadel raked in $16 billion in 2022, marking the best year for any hedge fund in history Erdogan to Sweden: Don't expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest AUD : NAB’s monthly business survey shows that the economy is beginning to slow and that inflation passed its peak as of December, reinforcing market expectations that a peak in interest rates is near. Business conditions fell 8 points to be up 12 index points, with trading, profitability and employment down. Confidence rose 3 points to be down 1 index points, but remained well below average Britain and the European Union are unlikely to fundamentally change their underlying Brexit settlement, making sector-specific deals for financial services, fisheries and energy necessary to prevent more disruption Peru: Anti-government protests will continue, says interior minister China Slams US on Debt Limit and Accuses Washington of Sabotage. US needs to ‘cope with its own debt problem,’ embassy says..Sharp words contrast with recent easing in China-US tensions/BBG Former top FBI official charged with violating Russia sanctions Markets : SPX500...till it closes 'well' above this 4010-4050 range of resistance/trendlines..But it feels squeezy for choice-still (softer usd, BoJ on hold, FED moving to 25bps etc and a martket that looks badly positioned - 4300 would really be hurting the current '''negatively positioned market....'' >>> remember EVERYONE pretty much talked recession as we started 2023, with weak equity markets in H1 and a recovery in H2 - the reverse might well be true! The first 3 weeks of the year are often driven by pure sentiment and short-term flows, beware of change of heart, this IS a market that can change its mind just like that EURCHF - chart below - with higher ECB rates, wouldn't be shocked to see cross at 1.05 over next few months (GBPCHF similar ish) Crude steady/higher, copper higher (Peru shutting down risk), metals higher #Gold grinding higher still - hard to see why it should at mom, after the huge CB buyers late last year, the market is now having to do some work.. USDollar mixed to slightly softer still, same old, #XAUUSD notably grinding higher Debt default would cost 6 million jobs, push jobless rate to 7 percent: analysis | The Hill it should not, and it very most likely will not happen, but there you go - it's politics Hedge Fund That Got China Right Sees Risk in US Markets (yahoo.com) Fed Governor Waller backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting (msn.com) Citadel Posts Biggest Hedge-Fund Profit in History With $16 Billion in 2022 (businessinsider.com) Peter Thiel Says British Affection for NHS Is Stockholm Syndrome (msn.com) He is not wrong ! Erdogan to Sweden: Don't expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest - SWI swissinfo.ch IW-Studie: Ukraine-Krieg kostet deutsche Wirtschaft 175 Milliarden Euro - WELT Kaivan Shroff on Twitter: "Just to be clear, when the New York Times reported that the FBI saw “no link between Trump and Russia” — a week before the 2016 election — the FBI agent who was just arrested over ties to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska was heading up the investigation. Just an absolute scandal. https://t.co/0SQ6zr1zMV" / Twitter Former top FBI official charged with violating Russia sanctions | The Hill Britain and EU unlikely to change Brexit deal much, despite issues - World - Business Recorder (brecorder.com) January 6 rioter who posed with feet on Nancy Pelosi’s desk guilty of all charges | Evening Standard Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/15 Since the 1960s few arguments in international finance have been as exciting as "the coming demise of the dollar", but these arguments seem always to founder on the same set of mistakes. https://t.co/fsI0MkqE42" / Twitter That's not to say the USDollar can't continue to weaken in short-term, IMHO it will (peak usd, peak inflation, peak worries etc and FED going for lighter hikes while ECB going for 50bps, in fact Terminal rate in europe will be HIGHER than U.S, as is currently predicted by the 2 respective CB's ! Peru: Anti-government protests will continue, says interior minister (firstpost.com) government overthrow likely, could spread to other parts of LATAM - hard to tell Venezuela public sector workers march for better salaries | Reuters Rishi Sunak was ‘unaware’ of Nadhim Zahawi’s £1m tax penalty (telegraph.co.uk) good grief, really!!? Politics news - latest: 'He's toast' - pressure builds on Nadhim Zahawi to resign over tax affairs | Politics News | Sky News EURCHF >> 1.05? have a wonderful day Team PVM

  • ECB committing to 3.25% / BoJ Dec minutes, #USDJPY #EURJPY / DE:3rd LNG Terminal / China $720bn

    Kung Hei Fat Choy and happy happy rabbit ! European Central Bank to raise deposit rate to 3.25% by mid-year / Rehn this time and again, ECB’s Knot said to expect the ECB to hike by 50bps in February and March, followed by more steps in May and June Jack Ma is more than a symbol: The end of the Chinese entrepreneur is the end of the era of rapid growth for China. Excellent analysis / Nikkei article Japan finmin warns of severe finances as BOJ struggles to contain yields and BoJ minutes of the Dec meeting include wordings from two governments officials as they requested a rare adjournment Exxon’s predictions about the climate crisis may have increased its legal peril Several US states say news that Exxon scientists predicted global heating accurately strengthens their lawsuits against company Germany receives third floating LNG terminal Alphabet is laying off 12,000 staff due to a "different economic reality than the one we face today." Fed's total assets have shrank another 20bn last week. Since start of QT, the Fed's balance sheet has ''only'' shrunk by about $500bn Goldman Sachs to cut asset management investments that weighed on earnings Hong Kong aims to lift COVID-19 testing and inbound quotas on China border travel ''While this may look good for China, economists at Nomura Holdings Inc. offer caution—and cause for concern. Poring over Chinese bank-account and income data, they calculated that Chinese households have indeed built up excess savings, to the tune of $720 billion.'' Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market.The EV maker’s sudden move pressures rivals, crimps used-Tesla values Germany's foreign minister said her government would not stand in the way if Poland wants to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, in a possible breakthrough for Kyiv which wants the tanks for its fight against Russia's invasion Bill Gates has joined a slew of billionaires investing in an Australian climate tech startup that has plans to stop cows from burping methane.. Markets : USDJPY - watch out 131USDJPY+ (or you might prefer via EURJPY given ECB hawks out) for potential turnaround - chart below (+BoJ minutes and Kuroda on Friday). EURO higher on ECB commitment to higher rates SPX500 rangy 3850/00 vs 4000/50 well defined range for now, lot more going on underneath though, sector rotation, China etc. IF rates remain relatively well behaved, it's not too hard to think we can have a slow grinding markets that goes on to test 4100 or even 4300 area MACRO rates, there is a big trade out there, IF.. a short mild U.S recession quickly runs into a CHINA re-opening impact (see excess savings article below) and a lot of fiscal help >> this would call for steeper curves! Crude stead/higher - this could also grind towards $90+ on China Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on December 19 and 20, 2022 (boj.or.jp) Government officials who attended the Bank of Japan's policy meeting in December were granted a half-hour adjournment to contact their ministries, minutes showed, underscoring the significance of the central bank's decision to tweak its bond-market peg ECB's Rehn backs significant rate hikes in near term -paper | Euronews Germany receives third floating LNG terminal | Reuters China’s Reopening Comes With a $720 Billion Inflation Bomb: New Economy Saturday - Bloomberg Exxon’s predictions about the climate crisis may have increased its legal peril | ExxonMobil | The Guardian Analysis: Jack Ma downfall spells end of China's golden age - Nikkei Asia Goldman Sachs to cut asset management investments that weighed on earnings | Malay Mail Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market - WSJ Disrupting used car market caused Carvana to succeed and stumble (cnbc.com) Bill Gates fund invests in Perth startup slashing cow farts in Aussie-first (smartcompany.com.au) Davos round-up: Optimism, the dangers of forecasting and subsidy competition (msn.com) USDJPY - watch out 131USDJPY+ for potential turnaround...

  • U.S claims still strong / #XAUUSD / Copper / UST inversion / Davos ends / JPN inflation 41y highs

    Year of the rabbit coming up! Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 190,000 for the week ended Jan. 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday, this is astonishing really..when you think the 5y trend average is 245K... >>> hence FED member remain fairly hawkish, ''higher for longer'' (yes we've peaked clearly, yes inflation will fall relatively rapidly from 7 to 4% (not 2%), but the BIG question is about all those cuts (over 200bps) priced in already for 2023 and '24 some. We know overall macro data has been super weak (hence the 100bps plunge in 10y rates since Dec..!!..) but employment remains strong, so long this picture remains, 'mild recession-slowdown' for now is most likely scenario IMHO Trafigura : “If we want to reach net zero by 2050, we need to have two-thirds of energy from renewable sources by 2030. In that scenario, we need a 20% increase in production per annum of copper." Japan trade minister Nishimura says will ask businesses to hike wages by 5% and more >> must be the only? country in the world (strong coalition..) where the Trade Minister is telling the Unions to go and get a 5pct pay rise, Japan's consumer inflation hits fresh 41-year high, at 4%, keeping BOJ in focus KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% 'cancel' rate. Meaning that over 2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter. Leaving KB Homes with a massive pile-up of inventory European Central Bank member says market is mispricing rate hikes, expects more to come (Knot) Fed's Williams says Fed needs more rate rises to cool inflation, ''to bring down inflation it will require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labour conditions'' Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Thursday that high inflation in the United States is easing and suggested it was possible that the Fed’s interest rate hikes could slow price acceleration without causing significant job losses JPM's Marko Kolanovic negates market optimism, goes full bear. We think "markets that are heading towards recession are being further aggravated by central bank tightening. We think that recession is currently not priced in equity markets.'' The U.S. could be in the middle of a fiscal crisis in a few months as the government hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit Genesis (not the band) files for bankruptcy The 30y US mortgage rate has moved from over 7%% to 6.10% over the last 2months, the largest 2months decline in rates since 2008/09 European gas prices are on track for their longest run of weekly losses in almost three years Markets : USDollar remains soft (ish) overall but near key supports. USDJPY 127-28 support though for now, CABLE near Dec highs around 1.2400, AUDUSD needs 'risk' to do okay to rally .7000+ again. EURUSD 1.08-1.0900 long-term resistance too GOLD above cluster of resistance 1915/25$, sustained break above $1935+ and the bulls will love it, XAGUSD needs $24.50+ >>> US debt $31trn+, risk usd losing it's dominance long-term - FT article below - all interesting long-term stuff... Equity markets 'struggling/peaked near resistance levels', on still pretty hawkish Fed and ECB. SPX500, we all know about resistance levels 4K+, the bulls want to hold 3850+ overall - ''early 2023 euphoria-momentum-short-covering'' clearly stalled... UST's, we've seen a near 100bp drop in 10y yields since Dec, can we really go any lower/more inversion ? Fears of US default grow as politicians squabble over raising the debt ceiling. Existing borrowing limits to be reached this week but ‘extraordinary measures’ will hold back the crisis until late summer >>> 1y CDS near 2013 highs Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 20, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: Somewhat muddled action across markets, as yields rebounded on hawkish ECB talk and strong US jobless claims data, halting the latest advance in the US dollar and Japanese yen. Equities traded on the weak side again, with Netflix reporting stronger than expected subscriber growth after hours, while its CEO is set to leave after twenty years in the position. Asian stocks advanced ahead of the week-long holiday for greater China to mark the Lunar New Year. US jobless claims, hawkish ECB halt the slide in yields | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Fears of US default grow as politicians squabble over raising the debt ceiling – The Irish Times Great power conflict puts the dollar’s exorbitant privilege under threat | Financial Times Helen Robertson on Twitter: "European gas prices are on track for their longest run of weekly losses in almost three years ⤵️https://t.co/soZz113MhO #ONGT #EnergyCrisis" / Twitter U.S. hits debt ceiling as partisan standoff sparks economic worries (yahoo.com) Trafigura on Twitter: "“If we want to reach net zero by 2050, we need to have two-thirds of energy from renewable sources by 2030. In that scenario, we need a 20% increase in production per annum of copper." Our CEO Jeremy Weir speaking today at #WEF2023 about the clean energy economy. https://t.co/mL2yhcp4ip" / Twitter .....most estimates say we need to double copper supply by 2030. HOWEVER, humanity has never doubled the globally available volume of any material in a decade. Ever. CONCODA 🥷🔥 on Twitter: "Fears of another liquidity crisis have entered the mainstream, with many people guessing what will cause the next financial upheaval. Right now, all triggers have been suppressed, but not for long. The Great Liquidity Squeeze™ is upon us... 1/" / Twitter long Thread, well documented Dairy Giant Vows To Cut Cow Farts By 30% Using Questionable Methods | The Daily Caller '''The elites in power all flew to Switzerland in their private jets to talk about climate change dur to air pollution. It's okay for the elites to pollute the air, God forbid if a cow farts'' :-) brilliant and its true some some -600- private jets at least...have landed so far last few days.. European Central Bank member says market is mispricing rate hikes, expects more to come (cnbc.com) Medvedev warns of nuclear war if Russia is defeated in Ukraine | World | The Times U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall (cnbc.com) Crypto broker Genesis files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy – The Irish Times St Jacinda’s global cheerleaders can’t acknowledge the truth about her fall (telegraph.co.uk) Ambulance workers to stage 10 further strikes as row over pay and staffing escalates | UK News | Sky News The New German Defense Minister’s Biggest Challenge Isn’t Ukraine - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace XAUUSD : 3months ago we talked a lot about #peakusdollar #peakworries , #FED hiking cycle continued, inversion etc...

  • Ardern / SPX500 stalls @4K / Weaker U.S macro data / USDJPY all the way back? / ECB hawkish still

    U.S PPI : biggest drop since April 2020 and US retail sales continued to fall in December, dropping by 1.1% amid high inflation, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, US Industrial Production (M/M) Dec: -0.7% (est -0.1%)....all weaker...(this after a very weak Empire on Tuesday..) >>> USD, bonds, risk reacted as you would expected Fed's Harker says he is ready to downshift to 25-basis-point rate hikes ''few more 25bp Fed's Logan supports slower rate hike pace, possibly higher stopping point ''we can offset the effect by gradually raising rates to a higher level than previously thought'' Fed' Bullard ( non voter) ...but he did the damage yesterday for market sentiment, rates to get above 5% 'as quickly as we can'' Beige book : U.S. firms pessimistic about economic growth this year, Fed survey shows >>> market, people wants to be optimistic, BUT, the reality setting in, in terms of costs and lowering expenses for many, choice have to be made The NY Fed's recession indicator (derived from the 3m10yr curve) is now showing a 47% change of a U.S recession. There have only been two other occasions in the past 62 yrs where it's been higher..HOWEVER..IMHO & for now anyway...high-yield credit spreads around 400 bps are wildly inconsistent with recession pricing. #MSFT hosted Sting performance in #Davos the night before it announced layoffs. While much of comp’s leadership team was halfway around the world from its Redmond headquarters—it announced plans to lay off 10,000 people, largest layoffs since 2014 ‘No more in the tank’: New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern announces shock resignation,‘Politicians are human. We give all that we can, for as long as we can, and then it’s time. And for me, it’s time’ ECB’s Knot : ECB Planning To Hike By 50bps `Multiple' Times Kissinger says..”that NATO membership for Ukraine would be an "appropriate outcome." "The idea of a neutral Ukraine under these conditions is no longer meaningful.” "Game-Changer:" High-Powered laser steers lightning bolts for first Time (Switzerland).. Markets : US 3-month/10-year yield curve now inverted by 128 bps, the most since 1981. It was +225 bps as recently as May 2022 >>> Jerome Powell on to you sir ! Home / Twitter (chart) USDJPY, BoJ was unch, BUT... nice round trip yesterday (still in downtrend, chartbelow, target 120 area).. helped by much weaker U.S. data in the afternoon. Lower yields, eventually dragged CROSSJPY's lower again, similar round trip! SPX500 - well documented resistance levels at/above 4'000 area held, and weaker U.S macro data (reaction to all those 2022 hikes..) pushed risk lower overall, BULLS don't want market to go and close below 3850 area Markets were full of optimism (from oversold levels at end of Dec) lots of short-covering early in the year, in the so-called lower quality stocks, which is/was far enough, together with the HUGE move lower in yields, reality setting in now As a seasoned trader told me ''Old adage , the Fed hikes , the market cuts'', UST curve most inverted since 1981 Retail sales fell even further in December as shoppers battled inflation | CNN Business Fed’s Beige Book shows signs inflation is slowing, but job market remains tight (msn.com) What happens if the US hits the debt ceiling? - BBC News should not, and probably won't happen, however, some delays always possible, its politics after after all..short-term markets 'may' react Alf on Twitter: "More companies mentioning ''job cuts'' in the US. Still a limited amount, but now approaching 2019 levels. These figures would be consistent with 100k Non-Farm Payrolls ahead. The labor market is weakening, and if it doesn't the Fed will push until it does. https://t.co/JrBzwCOtGT" / Twitter Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Latest Global Fund Manager survey from ⁦@BankofAmerica⁩ shows investors are most underweight U.S. equities since 2005 ... hasn't limited risk-on attitudes, though, given many have cited a move towards emerging market equities ⁦@Bloomberg⁩ https://t.co/j0gwUP9b4g" / Twitter ...hence dips will probably be bought and/or there should not be much panic selling when we have negative days.. Jacinda Ardern quits as Prime Minister: Labour to elect new leader on Sunday, Grant Robertson won’t consider - NZ Herald Henry Kissinger says Russia War Validates Ukraine's NATO Bid (rferl.org) "Game-Changer:" High-Powered Laser Steers Lightning Bolts For First Time | ZeroHedge 🧙🏼‍♂️ on Twitter: "One of the wildest exchanges I've seen in a while was when the chairman of Thyssenkrupp crashed the interview and forced Karp to pitch him on Foundry. Karp later invited him to the $PLTR villa for a demonstration of the software. https://t.co/czEYzKCkqz" / Twitter Labour calls for inquiry over Nadhim Zahawi tax affairs | Nadhim Zahawi | The Guardian Crypto Meltdown Continues As Genesis Is Reportedly Filing For Bankruptcy This Week (ibtimes.com) USDJPY - break of 127/128 calls for 120 or even 115 area - perhaps quicker than many think SPX500 - same old chart - cluster of resistance 4K+ - now support 3850 short-term and 3750 area

  • BoJ unch..but / BoAFM survey U.S stocks / ECB /Empire / DE:LNG Terminal / U.S debt ceiling next

    JPY slides about 2% as the BoJ maintains the YCC at this meeting with 9-0 votes >>> Kuroda expects core CPI around 3% now and falling to 2% on next fiscal year, and Bank of Japan’s balance sheet assets to GDP now at record levels, approaching 140%, BUT overall language : pretty flexible, and eventually they will 'have' to move anyway, so beware Kuroda (who's is leading in April..) : YCC is fully sustainable ECB 'sources' yesterday afternoon, suggested they started to think about slower pace of hikes in Feb >>> bund yields dropped 10bps on this, U.S yields lower on very weak U.S empire (lowest since Mai 2020)...and this morning : ECB’s Villeroy: Lagarde's 50-Bps Guidance Is Still Valid, “I was quite surprised” by the story published by Bloomberg that the pace of tightening may slow down - BBG German's Habeck confirming in Davos that Leopards going to UKR, they will build a 3rd LNG Terminal (this is big news again) and basically that they make do without Russian energy, and Germany wants inflation back down to 5% by year-end OPEC+ will do whatever it takes to keep the oil market stable - OPEC sec gen Short-term sentiment data these days.....Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Jan: 16.7 (prev -23.6) and take ..NY Empire Fed manufacturing -32.9 after -9 consensus, then exact opposite with..The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged in January, with business activity in New York state recording the fifth worst reading in the survey’s history HSBC: China’s reopening is “unlikely to prevent global downturn in early 2023.” Inflation is likely to be too high to warrant US rate cuts. “We believe the USD's correction lower has room to run (joining those changing their view this week..), core bond yields will fall, and credit markets and EM have value.” Saudi Arabia is open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the US dollar, according to the kingdom’s finance minister British wine named one of the 'best in the world' in blind taste test! Trafigura plans to take large amounts of LME copper #MSFT which employs more than 220,000 people, including 6,000 in the UK, is said to be contemplating cutting roughly 5% of its workforce, which if accurate would equate to approximately 11,000 jobs. UK Finance Minister Hunt on inflation data: ''We need to stick to our plan to bring inflation down'' >>> UK inflation dips only marginally from 10.7% in November to 10.5% in December Markets : -BofA: Investors Most Underweight on US Stocks Since 2005 Home / Twitter - chart >>> pretty interesting as we sit at 4K SPX500 level, the make or break levels -Bonds higher, weak USdata, ECB chatters yesterday and BoJ overnight wiht 10y JGB's trading back down towards 40bps -USDJPY higher, bringing CROSSJPY's higher with it overnight. USDollar overall softer -SPX500, are you in the break up or break down camp ahead of 4K ?... that IS the only question from here on. Much more going on underneath though, sectors, China, commodities, quality names and so on. For choice, the longer VIX remain soft, the more chance we have to 'grind higher'.. -Crude steady to slightly higher, lots of chatters SPR demand below + China re-opening, #XAGUSD chart below - interesting levels (another make or break..) Jim Grant: «Japan is Perhaps the Most Important Risk» (themarket.ch) What the Debt Ceiling Is and Why It Matters | Time Jeremy Hunt ‘planning a slimmed-down spring budget with no tax cuts’ | Conservatives | The Guardian Trafigura plans to take large amounts of LME copper -sources | Euronews Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged in January, with business activity in New York state recording the fifth worst reading in the survey’s history. https://t.co/BgzcTJpx7D" / Twitter "Bear markets are like a Hall of Mirrors, designed to confuse investors and take their money. Trust YOUR fundamental/valuation process (we do).. For us, margins/earnings are likely to significantly disappoint whether there is a recession, or not" Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson German economy minister wants inflation under 5% by end of year - Welt TV (yahoo.com) Tesla’s Brand Is Tanking, Survey Finds (forbes.com) Tech bosses could face jail after Tory MPs revolt on bill - BBC News Tech bosses could face jail time for failing to protect children online, after the government conceded to a backbench rebellion Army of pest-munching ducks keep South African vineyard blooming - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Great pics and what a great way of getting on without pesticides How Does the Panama Canal Work? - Bing video that's a brilliant video and this one https://twitter.com/i/status/1615024820193841153 Ukraine: Military hardware donations weaken Army - UK chief - BBC News Russia needs opportunity to rejoin an international system, Kissinger says (cnbc.com) British sauvignon blanc wine from Gloucestershire vineyard named one of the 'best in the world' | UK News | Sky News That's something to celebrate folks !! Shopper Rebellion Against Higher Prices Helps Slow Inflation - WSJ Silver #XAGUSD

  • #USDJPY implied vols sky high / 2023 USD forecasts lower / UK wages / Hildebrand / All about BoJ now

    Major investment banks....already revising their USD forecasts lower, EURUSD to 1.15 byend of 2023, IF they do this they will soon revise their #SPX00 forecasts higher too !!...this is clearly the potential implication.. Who is Lee Koguan, the Elon fanboy and one of Tesla's largest shareholders who now says Musk has 'abandoned' the EV maker. Fully Electric Vehicles made up almost 10% of all new cars sold globally in 2022 - WSJ Frau Lambrecht resigned as German Defense Minister Morgan Stanley says European stocks san extend lead over the US, optimism on China, earnings supports Europe’s outperformance. Secker also sees boost from light positioning, sector trends Hildebrand, fast path down for inflation in 2023 from 9 to 4%, 2% won't happen for long while, no more QE, new world and does not see rate cut this year (agreed, this what we have been talking about for a while, as the most likely scenario, and the 200bps of rate cuts priced in by Dec 2024, seems rather big at this stage!) WEF's annual meeting began with corporate executives and economists warning of a worldwide recession this year. A PricewaterhouseCoopers survey found 73% of 4,410 business leaders predicted global growth will decline over the coming 12 months, the worst since the poll began in 2011...>>> ie the most anticipated recession , ever UK wages rising at near record pace, clear labour shortage >> hard to se BoE hike only 25bps at next meeting with these kind of data, which would put both ECB and BoE going 50bps, while FED is 'only' going 25bps China population: 2022 marks first decline in 60 years. Mainland China’s overall population fell to 1.4118 billion last year, as the growth rate hit negative 0.6 per thousand people Markets are passed the "peak Fed hawkishness" and "peak inflation." But an "earnings peak" has yet to be fully digested/thread-chart BoJ's real goal, ideally, is to get our of YCC, which started in December (earlier than many thought in markets), now Kuroda on his way in April, they will continue to adjust rates, but what they are desperately trying to do is getting out of YCC (say 2%) without JPY strengthening massively..clearly a tough ask! Markets : UST's net speculative still heavily short and near multi-year lows USDJPY (chart below) overnight implied vols over 30%, which means a 1day straddle costs 320 JPY pips! the market is expecting some volatility!.. low delta trading near 40-50% implied.. >>> so we could trade between 125 and 132 USDJPY ! strap yourselves in, Kuroda this afternoon - please don't ask what I think (ok some of you asking.....IMHO, the market has anticipated and priced in a lot from BoJ already last couple of weeks... Equity markets : we all know about technical levels in SPX500, VIX (eq implied vols) remain soft, and a slightly softer USDdollar overall will help risk going forward, but it's January and Jan markets are always/often subject to sharp turnaround Bank of Japan in a corner, can’t avoid volatility | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and good charts in there https://s354.podbean.com/pb/ed46b2a35ce243daddfd080c32cd51cb/63c661c2/data1/fs56/5709963/uploads/2023_01_17_SaxoMarketCall.pdf?pbss=d1eb9cf4-6d4d-5888-bd76-aaf433be562a Global_Macro on Twitter: "Markets are passed the "peak Fed hawkishness" and "peak inflation." But an "earnings peak" has yet to be fully digested https://t.co/KC3gj18q34" / Twitter baufinanciaphaster UNVERiFlED on Twitter: "For those thinking about the BOJ policy meeting tomorrow. A little depth will be worthwhile. Everyone knows Kuroda-san is on his way out. His term ends 8 April. USUALLY, the govt releases its "nomination" in February and then the candidate goes in front of the Diet for" / Twitter recap on 3 possible Kuroda replacements.. EUR/USD 2023 forecast, as per forex strategists (msn.com) UK wages rising at near record pace - live updates (msn.com) Rishi Sunak blocks Scotland's gender recognition bill (telegraph.co.uk) Corona-Indiskretionen - Bundesrat in der Bredouille: Kann Berset dem Druck standhalten? - News - SRF Berset not so popular.. Who Is Leo KoGuan, the Tesla Shareholder Crusading Against Elon Musk? (businessinsider.com) German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht resigns amid Ukraine war backlash (cnbc.com) Nein, Frau Lambrecht, die Medien sind nicht schuld http://to.welt.de/DsZiYXi Matteo Messina Denaro: Italy's most wanted mafia boss arrested in Sicily, police say | ITV News China population: 2022 marks first decline in 60 years | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) USDJPY - it has already moved decently - in fact it has corrected 50% of the move since March 2020

  • U.S debt ceiling limit Thursday / Kuroda in Davos on Wed / SPX500 cluster of resistance 4000/4080

    The BoJ meeting is the biggest macro event this week/month.. JGB's could have a proper tantrum like in 2013 and hit 1% yields in the 10y area. BoJ spent about -75bn$ in last 2-34 sessions buying JGB's, JPY has recovered about half of what was lost since March 2020 (USDJPY has done a lot of damage already though...YCC change is coming ! only question is when.!) - Japan December PPI +0.5% m/m (expected +0.3%) and +10.2% y/y (expected +9.5%) The University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved by 4.9pp to 64.6 in early January from 59.7 in December EV price war shaping up in 2023 - if you wanted an EV car, you might want to wait a bit UK/EU...There are growing indications that the EU and UK could, later today, set out an agreed framework on resolving the most contentious issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol; diplomats have stressed that there is still an enormous amount of technical work to be done before an overall agreement is reached JPMorgan Chase on Thursday shut down the website for a college financial aid platform it bought for $175 million after alleging the company’s founder created nearly 4 million fake customer accounts Fitch: ECB Guidance, Core Inflation Point To Higher Terminal Rate With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become/Thread and by pretty much ANY survey, it is the most anticipated recession in history.. FED's net interest costs increased to $102.4bn in 2022, up from just $5.7bn in 2021 U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress Bitcoin has jumped out of January’s starting gates with a climb of more than 25% BRL : largest real rates levels across the globe - see Thread below Markets are pricing 200bps of cuts from Fed by the end of 2024 >>> basically that would be same levels as ECB - this looks nuts !!? and because of this, markets have embraced '#Goldilocks,' with investors assuming that a soft landing means positive #earnings growth Markets : VIX had the lowest weekly close in over a year USDJPY has done a lot of work already ahead of BoJ, dragging all USD pairs lower, beware a little from here on USD shorts, in fact TP on some or most, reassess on Wed/Thursday HSI now looks better on a 12-month perf chart than the S&P500 - pretty wild - was so oversold in Sep/Oct, when USD peaked too, inflation peaked etc SPX is closing in on big levels. Zoom in and you see the 200 day moving average as well as the negative trend line. The entire 4000-4080 area is basically a big resistance area / see below chart https://s358.podbean.com/pb/c2e85002c24556fe7dfa0bfa8af3dffe/63c50a7d/data1/fs56/5709963/uploads/2023_01_16_SaxoMarketCall.pdf?pbss=a78d3df9-17fb-5fcf-862a-b2ccf69bb951 SPX500 chart and more there Market bracing for BoJ impact Wednesday | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Column: Oil prices expected to average around $90 in 2023-2027 | Reuters BOJ's record-breaking $78bn bond buying fails to halt rising yields - Nikkei Asia Weston Nakamura on Twitter: "🇯🇵BOJ↑ add’l JGB buys +¥1.4tn, targeting belly of JGB curve +¥100b 1-3Y +¥500b 3- 5Y +¥500b 5-10Y +¥300b 10-25Y Obv any specific amt = not enough, as even “unlimited” isn’t enough JGB 10Y >50bp YCC cap (again) USDJPY↓ mid 127 ¥futures↑ near 79 BOJ likely back in later today https://t.co/8n8HcGfwrU" / Twitter this guy btw is good to follow for BoJ stuff.. Home / Twitter nice recap 'Global Central Bank Update'' --South Korea hiked rates for the 10th time, 25 bps increase to 3.50%. Brazil real CB rate +8%.. wild - great opportunity ? U.S. to hit debt limit Thursday, Yellen warns Congress (cnbc.com) Callum Thomas on Twitter: "2. With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become. Bull take: easy to surprise against (even if mediocre) Bear take: if confirmed = bad news. h/t @zerohedge $SPX $SPY $MACRO https://t.co/kOtYcazkdO" / Twitter Tom McTague on Twitter: "There’s lots of noise and fury. But the truth remains startling enough: the UK is building and operating an international trade border within its own country to ensure the integrity of the EU single market. Why? Because that was the price the Tory party agreed to pay for Brexit." / Twitter JPMorgan Chase shutters student financial aid website Frank (cnbc.com) Whatever happened to due diligence..? ECB Guidance, Core Inflation Point to Higher Terminal Rate (fitchratings.com) Support for leaving EU has fallen significantly across bloc since Brexit | European Union | The Guardian God damn lies (irrelevant whether one likes or dislike EU)... what happened to that Red Bus and 350mio a week stuff ? and the execution was simply horrific, in fact nothing much has actually got better ! Johnson had cousin act as ‘guarantor for an £800,000 credit facility’ while PM, reports | Evening Standard A spokesman for Boris Johnson said all the former Conservative leader’s finances ‘are and were properly declared’ Eisai files for approval of Alzheimer's drug in Japan | Reuters Have a great start to the week Team PVM GBPCHF - constructive - if ever those talks between EU/UK became good !

  • Fed to go 25bps in Feb - 2024 pricing! / USD continues lower / CHFJPY!, metals, GOLD / BoJ next

    TOKYO (Reuters) -- The yield on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds rose on Friday above the Bank of Japan's new policy ceiling, reaching the highest in about eight years amid rising speculation the central bank could further tweak policy as soon as next week....they 've got a job on their hands !.. Fed members Harker, Bullard and Barkin spoke yesterday and their statements suggesting the FOMC will be at 25bp hike in February (markets pricing another in March and then cuts! about 200bps !! now priced in already for 2024.... “To be honest with you, I don’t quite know why markets are so optimistic about inflation,” said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. “I think of them as priced for perfection" A short very good thread below on U.S CPI.... '''The 3m moving average of MoM core services ex-shelter CPI has dramatically slowed down, and it’s now in line with a 2.5-3.0% annualized core inflation. This matters a lot to Powell.'''' Europe’s debt market is enjoying its busiest week ever, with borrowers issuing €99 billion ($107 billion) in just four days as they seize on a start-of-year rally to bring deals early/BBG Timiraos : Core inflation ran at a 3.14% annualized rate in the October-to-December period, the lowest such reading in 15 months Pantheon : (yeps well said)...US inflation overshoot: Mostly margin expansion, a good dose of rents, plus a bit of wages and a bit of energy pass-through. All now reversing, with a long way to go. No further rate hikes are needed Germany built LNG terminals in months. Wind turbines still take years, this is we never got a NatGas crisis...no-one should underestimate how extraordinary impressive this is!!.. hence no energy crisis this winter.,, Bank of Korea raises interest rates 25bps, hints they will now be steady, no more Tech Hub Shenzhen Takes Steps to Support Industrial Sector, Huawei-backed Aito cuts prices in China, following Tesla. PBoC Vice Governor: Monetary Policy Will Be Appropriate, No ‘Flood-Like’ Stimulus -Will Take More Measures To Boost Market Confidence. Morgan Stanley said its wealth clients are “extremely bullish” on China’s economy as the mainland reopens its borders Total freight costs fall year over year in December for first time in 28 months Negotiations between the EU and its G7 allies to set a price cap for Russia's exports of refined oil products are about to get serious, but it looks like this will be an even more difficult task than the earlier move to cap prices for Russian crude exports WEF starts soon - a reminder : Private jet emissions quadrupled during Davos 2022 Inflation is softer, as expected, half the battle won, having said all this it is still +6%, clearly still a worry and investors should beware, it will remain stick, the harsh reality with many companies cutting cost and staff is now the story of early 2023 Markets : CBOE Index VIX closed below 19, lowest level since April 2022 -Earnings season starts in the U.S, big banks today, SPX500 4K reistance (all those calls bought few days ago >> plenty of gamma o sell into!!), for eventually 4100 area Silly bankrupt stocks BBY (up 2x this year) and others up, BTC up, battered stocks recovering fast (short-covering etc, early Jan action), IMHO inflation will remain sticky, and rates therefore (given what's priced in already for 2023-24 in particular , MUST be considered...) USDollar tumbled, particularly vs JPY (BoJ meeting next week >>> eventually they will haave to move YCC again and/or let JPY strengthen!.. CHF decent move, and yes CHFJPY lower the trade (better EZ credit and BoJ adjustment) Crude slightly higher Commodities recover on the back of China re-opening, and this is a risk, if prices are driven higher again, FED and Co won't be able to cut in months ahead.. Gold, metals well supported, though already moved ahead of U.S CPI (market expectations were correct overall), copper/IronOre all about China re-opening, and eventually if the reopen goes well, would not be surprised to see crude back towards or above $100 JGB 10-year yield tops Bank of Japan's 0.5% ceiling - Nikkei Asia Alf on Twitter: "Very important CPI report for the Fed and markets. A short thread. 1/" / Twitter - excellent thread from Alf on the U.S CPI inside outs..! Germany built LNG terminals in months. Wind turbines still take years. (msn.com) EU Gears Up for Tough Talks on Products Cap | Energy Intelligence Total freight costs fall year over year in December for first time in 28 months - FreightWaves Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Core inflation ran at a 3.14% annualized rate in the October-to-December period, the lowest such reading in 15 months It was 4.55% on a six-month annualized basis, the lowest reading since May 2021 https://t.co/QBBj9vh62h" / Twitter Russia risks becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos | The Economist Russia risks becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos. There is growing opposition to President Putin at home Santos scoffs at Kinzinger’s call to resign: Go on CNN and ‘cry about it’ | The Hill Total fake..On Wednesday, Nassau County Republicans, including Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), asked Santos to resign following revelations that he fabricated portions of his résumé during his successful campaign to win election to the House. Nelson Peltz talks Disney proxy fight (cnbc.com) Vodafone plans hundreds of job cuts, the biggest round of layoffs in 5 years - Business & Economy News (wionews.com) so many companies reducing staff levels - checking the cost side of things Private jet emissions quadrupled during Davos 2022 | Airline emissions | The Guardian Let them preach to us what we should be doing with our heating.. WEF 2023: The Davos predictions that did not work out (cnbc.com) Russia's Putin lays into minister Manturov for 'fooling around' - BBC News Tesla cuts prices in U.S. and Europe to stoke sales (cnbc.com) Sadiq Khan: Time to end 'vow of silence' on Brexit business hit - and his plan to fix it (cityam.com) “Brexit has reduced Britain’s GDP by 5.5%, cut investment by 11% and slashed goods & services trade by 7% — Britons are also paying an extra £6 billion to eat because of Brexit” CHFJPY finally correcting (anything JPY really)

  • WEF on inflation.!/ CHF /BoJ-review next week-JPY / NatGas prices down / All ears & eyes on U.S CPI

    TOKYO :The BoJ will review the side-effects of its monetary easing at next week's policy meetings and may take additional steps to correct distortions in the yield curve, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Thursday Inflation crisis poses greatest near-term global threat, Davos survey warns >>> ok so we have definitely peaked on inflation now...in fact, US inflation may have dropped below zero in December MoM (thread below). If it did, would be first negative print since 2020, so lets see later on today now!..markets expect 6.5% and 5.7% core U.S CPI, above 6.6% and markets (Algo's) wont be happy (buy the dip probably, as trend is softer) U.S NatGas prices free fall - chart below December’s -14.9% YoY drop for used car prices per ⁦at the Manheim/US, this was the worst/biggest ever drop in the data Fed economists: Home price gains over the last 2 years could have produced a wealth effect for homeowners that drove one third of the increase in the CPI (non-shelter prices) >>> Fed's Collins (Boston), who has been relatively dovish, explicitly goes for 25bp rate hike at the February FOMC meeting. Daly and Bostic signalled another downshift but Collins more explicitly expressed her preference for 25bp by saying “ I’d lean at this stage to 25, but it’s very data-dependent...” Morgan Stanley is Bullish on Chinese Assets Now: “We believe the market is under-appreciating the far-reaching ramifications of reopening and the possibility that a robust cyclical recovery can occur despite lingering structural headwinds.", here they come now! SPX500 : Momentum has flipped bullish in the market as buyers stepped in at a crucial level Next big fight is the macro downtrend line, see thread below - confirmation or not this afternoon, but there are plenty of signs that many inflation data pointing lower, quite clearly, and beware, everyone has same tech levels on their screens >> ''mind the gap'' US companies spent over $1 trillion buying back their own shares last year as they shrugged off fears of a recession-fueled crash “California Deficits Roar Back as Stock Rout Hits Taxes” The stock market drives marginal US consumption, GDP, & tax receipts Why Can't Tesla Drive US Oil Demand Lower? Plastics...US consumption of fossil fuels is heading toward records even amid the electric-car boom A barrel of Brent oil could reach $110 by the third quarter if China and other Asian economies fully reopen from Covid restrictions, Goldman's Jeff Currie China outbound flight bookings at 15% of pre-pandemic levels >> plenty of pent-up demand there..Chinese bank deposits exceed loans by $6.5tn as caution prevails Gap is largest since 1997, with spending sinking under cloudy economic forecasts South Korea is cutting its renewable electricity target by 2030 (the previous target was ~30% and the new one is 21%) while boosting its target for nuclear electricity generation (~33% vs ~24%). Coal and LNG down Markets : German bond curve – 2s/10s yield spread – inverts most in 30yrs at -40bps, recession bells ringing (note GS said, NO recession in Europe this year...who's going to be right!!?) Energy prices dropping like a stone - thank you mild weather/winter SPX500 plenty of resistance around 4K (chart)and huge short-term upside strikes were bought last few days (gamme to sell into big algo jump?).., with still 4050/4150 bigger resistance, downside 3750/3800 the base. CHINA HXC higher as covid restriction easing clearly, Europe outperformed (thank you mild winter and low energy prices, no major crisis as market talked about 6months ago..) EURCHF finally back above PAR, 1.02-1.04 area possible, no crisis in Europe etc. GBPCHF too, strikes might/should be partly avoided eventually and EU/UK also making some positive noise on protocol deal. USDJPY could well come under further pressure on BoJ review and specifically if U.S inflation softer..would not be shocked to see it back to 110-120 range this year... Crude slightly higher/off lows - Russian oil revenues falling because of price cap -U.S. official BOJ to review side-effects of massive easing at next week's meeting -Yomiuri - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Natural gas - 2023 Data - 1990-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart (tradingeconomics.com) David Ingles on Twitter: "US inflation may have dropped below zero in December (M/M). If it did, would be first negative print since 2020. Data out Thursday. https://t.co/JqKXFHzfyh" / Twitter Game of Trades on Twitter: "Momentum has flipped bullish in the market as buyers stepped in at a crucial level Next big fight is the macro downtrend line https://t.co/dquzJQjn9R" / Twitter The Fed - House Price Growth and Inflation During COVID-19 (federalreserve.gov) Inflation crisis posing greatest near-term threat, Davos survey warns (cnbc.com) when the Davos WEF gets involved, it's often already over!! US Companies Spent $1 Trillion on Buybacks Despite Recession Warning (businessinsider.com) and often adding debt to do the buybacks.. !! California Deficits Roar Back as Stock Rout Hits Taxes (1) (bloombergtax.com) China outbound flight bookings at 15% of pre-pandemic levels - Nikkei Asia Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 mortgage player, steps back from business (cnbc.com) Russian oil revenues falling because of price cap -U.S. official | Reuters Tesla shares: How Musk made history with the biggest loss of personal wealth ever recorded (cityam.com) astonishing really SPX500, same old chart, clearly above 4K sustained move will have the shorts scratching their heads. DAX has moved up 1000points in 1month, back to 15K already, pretty amazing really.. GBPCHF (needs +ve UK news too...) and EURCHF can have a 2-3-5pct run (europe no crisis etc)

  • #Zeteophobia! / Fed : no climate policymaker / French PF reforms / UK-EU improving / U.S. CPI tom

    -The Fed isn't going to stop banks from lending to oil and gas and coal companies, or take other steps to promote a greener economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell: “We are not, and will not be, a ‘climate policymaker.’” >>> Fed research: The surge in retirements since 2020 "accounts for essentially all of the shortfall" in labor force participation rates "More than half of the increase in the number of retirees appears to be a direct result of the pandemic." The Fed will start cutting rates this summer as core PCE inflation will drop to 2.1%, says UBS' global chief economist >>> that would be quite something ! let's see, recall market pricing in about 40bps cut by year-end..on the other side of the view : JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the Fed’s rate hikes may need to go beyond what’s currently expected He said he thinks there's a 50% the Fed needs to raise rates to about 5% and a 50% chance they will have to go to 6% - Bloomberg France : The entire pensions system cost the government just under 14%..of GDP in 2021, about 25% when you include healthcare in there.. inflation has changed everything, the bill is turning up in most countries one way or another... that's why we think Macron (or anyone else in charge) has no choice but to reform Goldman Sachs no longer predicts a recession in the euro area - upgrades GDP forecast to +0.6% for 2023 vs -0.1% prior per research note ECB's Schnabel: Rates must still rise significantly - Must increase at a steady pace >>> Euro-zone inflation remains near a historic high, but consumer expectations about the path for prices are falling back to their long-term norm and energy prices could well push inflation very decently lower over next few months - it will remain volatile! Binance is bleeding assets, $12 Billion gone in less than 60 days Biden : Homeowners will now save money on their taxes if they purchase eligible energy-efficient appliances and products for their homes. We're confronting the climate crisis and saving folks money in the process The Irish minister for foreign affairs Michéal Martin has said there is growing trust between EU and UK negotiators but he cautioned there was a long way to go before agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol might be reached-it has to happen sooner rather than later...Thread below FTX spent about $7 million on food in the first 9 months of 2022 That's about $26,000 a day...ever so slightly excessive.. Markets : everyone waiting for the CPI today, and earnings season starts tomorrow SPX500 and major indices, everyone has the same tech levels in mind, much more interesting stock picking for good sound companies to invest in ! You can expect 2pct SPX move tomorrow on data IF the headline is +/- 0.25% outside market expectations..see below JPM comments USD has had a big move down last 2months, beware Jan snap back, same as above and it will be the same for BONDS, which had a decent sell-off yesterday - worth noting (Powell was actually fairly strong, not dovish IMHO) LME #copper hitting $9K a ton- highest level since June 2022 Copper - 2023 Data - 1988-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart (tradingeconomics.com) - chart (not LME prices but to put things in perspectives) Powell defends Fed taking 'measures that are not popular' to rein in inflation (msn.com) Markets love this stuff, seems the ALGO's are hooked to this.. StockMKTNewz - Evan on Twitter: "Here's what JPMorgan thinks could happen to the market on Thursday after CPI CPI below 6.4% - S&P 500 moves up by 3%-3.5% CPI 6.4%-6.6% - S&P 500 moves up by 1.5%-2% CPI above 6.6% - S&P 500 moves down by 2.5%-3% https://t.co/cRU9y7UEvy" / Twitter David Sacks: the tech reset has only just begun - The Post (unherd.com) Ruchir Sharma’s investor guide to 2023: from peak dollar to better TV | Financial Times (ft.com) A must read - IMHO .... Talking to leaders these days in any walk of life, I have a sense that people are frozen. They see that inflation is back in a serious way for the first time in decades, forcing central banks to raise interest rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. They understand that this sudden change in the price of money — the most important driver of economic and financial behaviour — marks a fundamental break with the past. But they are not acting. After living with easy money for so long, they find it difficult even to contemplate a different world. There is a term for this state of mind: zeteophobia, or paralysis in the face of life-altering choices, couldn't agree more or said it any better, clearly! ....So many people keep doing what they were doing, hoping that somehow they won’t have to deal with change. On the assumption that central banks will once again come to the rescue, investors are still pouring money into ideas that worked in the past decade — tech funds, private equity and venture capital. Governments are still borrowing to spend and homeowners are refusing to sell as if easy money was bound to return soon ...Other countries targeted by market sell-offs in 2022 included Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Ghana, Pakistan, Hungary and even the UK. What they shared: high external and government deficits and unorthodox leaders who threatened to make those deficits worse.... spot on, really superb stuff from Ruchir - top man Macron’s pension reform: Necessary changes to an unsustainable system? (france24.com) this was a manifesto already in 2017... Reason I mentioned yesterday that Macron (or anyone else..) doesn't have any choice but to reform.. (inflation-the bill has turned up for all..) - Critics have often cast France’s pension system as byzantine or convoluted, in part because it consists of 42 different state-supported pension schemes. The entire pensions system cost the government just under 14% !!!! of GDP in 2021, about 25% when you include healthcare in there..., Italy similar, Amazon to shut three UK warehouses amid cost-cutting drive | Evening Standard Binance Is Bleeding Assets, $12 Billion Gone In Less Than 60 Days (forbes.com) Euronav tumbles after Frontline abandons tanker merger deal (msn.com) merger failure, good for other name in the sector.. Fed Will Cut Interest Rates This Summer As Core PCE Inflation Cools: UBS (businessinsider.com) vs Dimon Jamie Dimon Says the Fed May Hike Rates Much Higher Than Markets Expect (businessinsider.com) >>> take your pick... Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Fed research: The surge in retirements since 2020 "accounts for essentially all of the shortfall" in labor force participation rates "More than half of the increase in the number of retirees appears to be a direct result of the pandemic." https://t.co/WgXfidul3p https://t.co/4WTYI9qOd2" / Twitter Bookshop throws shade at Harry's book Spare with very sassy placement | indy100 Prince Harry’s book marked down to half price on day of release 🤦‍♂️ Goldman Sachs Begins Large Round of Layoffs - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Japan asks drugstores to prevent medicine hoarding by tourists - Nikkei Asia Sweden is facing its ‘day of reckoning’ as house prices plummet (cnbc.com) very similar issue in many countries, the sellers will not want to lower prices for a while (hoping it comes back, rates go lower again..) and the buyers finding out funding much more expensive than 6months ago, and they need larger deposit to buy & funding higher etc - not too different than other times in early-mid 1990's Have a super day Team PVM

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