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No dividend as SNB loss wipes out distribution reserve.This was chiefly due to a loss on foreign currency positions of around CHF131bn, the central bank announced >>> essentially their balance-sheet is hihgly correlated to FAANG+.. Reminder: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is speaking today >> markets are pricing 40bps of cuts towards year-end again (from 30bps 1week ago), ahead of U.S CPI on Thursday given topics (see below) seems unlikely he says much about future intentions NatGas in Europe - pretty good news - see link below Fed's Bostic: Would be fair to say Fed is ‘willing to overshoot’ (the news that topped SPX yesterday), ''favors Holding Rates Above 5% for ‘a Long Time’' Fed's Daly still sticks to her terminal rate exp mentioned at Dec FOMC meeting. However, her tone is a little more dovish relative to previous interview in mid-Dec, she appears to lean toward 25bps at the upcoming FOMC meeting while she said that both were on the table >>> markets agree, markets pricing 80% probability of 25bps at next meeting 1-Year U.S inflation swap down to 2% ! Chart/thread #META has reportedly rescinded fulltime offers in London Japanese CPI less fresh food and energy, super core CPI 2.7%, highest since a long time ago...and yet YCC at 50bps...."Tokyo CPI Ticks Up Despite Weak Consumption Demand" China : An article in Health Times, a publication managed by People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, quoted several officials as saying infections have been declining in the capital Beijing and several Chinese provinces.China’s state-run CCTV says Beijing has passed its Covid infection peak, citing the city’s acting mayor China wraps up two-year tech crackdown, top official says. Alibaba, Tencent, Didi and Meituan can expect normalized supervision Macron's government will present his plan to overhaul France’s pension system today, likely triggering mass strikes and protests that may further undermine an economy already at risk of falling into recession ‘World’s Best Restaurant’ Noma Is Closing in 2024...Chef René Redzepi now says the fine dining model on which he built an empire of 20 years is “unsustainable”, inflation changed/changes everything.. Markets : SPX500 stalls near first resistance levels 3'980/4'020, ahead of much bigger levels 4100/50 area, ahead of Powell today and U.S CPI tomorrow, broadly range 3800/4000 SPX for now, much more going on within sectors and single stock picking #qualitybalancesheet USD has weakened quite sharply since (chart below) we talked about 'peak inflation, peak usd and peak worries' 2months ago. Markets convinced FED will cut towards year-end (40bps priced in now again), beware a snap back in these January markets and low liquidiites UST30y 3.66, helping mortgage rates come back so not so horrid levels Crude stable near lows still Bostic and Co talking higher for longer, big picture we agree with this, even though U.S CPI will print lower tomorrow, as expected.. risk has done well last few weeks on lower NatGas prices in Europe, China reopening and general short covering in Equity markets (lower vols), it will get tougher from here to rally broadly Consumer inflation in Japan's capital exceeds BOJ target for 7th month (yahoo.com) No dividend as SNB loss wipes out distribution reserve - Citywire Riksbank organises International Symposium on Central Bank Independence Nickel markets brace for nail-biting threequel | Reuters France Macron to push for pension reform again despite potential strikes (cnbc.com) Javier Blas on Twitter: "Short-term forecasts still anticipate more warmer-than-seasonal weather in North-West Europe until Jan 15. Goldman Sachs puts it nicely (at least for now): "The winter that wasn't". As a result, European gas inventories haven't fallen for three consecutive weeks | #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/PYN6scvcEY" / Twitter Ed Bradford on Twitter: "1-Year inflation swap eyeballing 2% https://t.co/DYXGVmJpUz" / Twitter Gergely Orosz on Twitter: "Just in: Meta has rescinded fulltime offers in London, as I confirmed with devs impacted. New grads with offers due to start in February have been taken back in bulk. I know of about 20 people so far. This is the first time I'm aware that Meta is taking back signed, FTE offers." / Twitter China suspends short-term visas for South Korea visitors in spat over COVID curbs | Reuters Life returns to normal as more parts of China pass infection peak-Xinhua (news.cn) Overall re-opening at pace continues UK space launch: Historic Cornwall rocket launch ends in failure - BBC News when nothing is going your way.. December sales bounce due to price rises not shopping sprees - BBC News inflation helps inflate the numbers, reality is different Mark Cuban Warns of Potential New Crypto Scandal and Fraud - TheStreet if rates stay high(er) for longer, most probably.. Gippsland fish and chip shops improvise amid national potato chip shortage - ABC News Noma Restaurant, the ‘World’s Best,’ Is Closing in 2024 - Eater London EURUSD in perspective >> near 10pct move since 0.95-0.9700 lows inSep/Oct, when we focused on #peakusdollar and peak inflation - also coincided with massive BoJ interventions near 150JPY, which remember, everyone downplayed at the time..

-Fallen heroes: Central banks face credibility crisis as losses pile up...Central bankers have been celebrated as alchemists who saved the world from the abyss. Now that inflation is out of control and losses are looming, they look far less omnipotent >>> they don't have any accountability, they can fail huge, and yet they'll invent a story that this and that happened, and that's why things are screwed..It was them who pushed QE...deal with it now ! -Central banks add more gold in November as China joins the fray -China will make its prudent monetary policy more targeted and effective in order to facilitate the overall recovery and improvement of its economy, a senior official said -In 2022, the TLT-30y bond posted ''the most oversold monthly'' RSI reading in it's history -Six Chinese cities have announced GDP growth targets for next year, with most between 5.5% and 7%, on confidence that changes to #Covid policies will lead to economic recovery, Securities Daily reported, Guangzhou's 2023 GDP target growth rate is expected to exceed 6% - Caixin >>> USDCNH already sub 6.80 !... -UK : Conservative voters now think the cost of Brexit outweighs its benefits for the first time, a new poll has found, finally admitting the obvious! -Ant-linked firms' shares rise after news of Jack Ma ceding control; Alibaba jumps -ECB Sees 'Very Strong' Wage Growth Ahead In Next Few Quarters -Sweden's NATO Bid Derailed: 'Turkey Wants What We Can't Give Them' -First negative ISM reading since early pandemic is more proof U.S. economy is slowing Markets : -Bonds, USD, equity (duration) reacted to weaker ISM, 2y yields dropped about 20bps -GOLD will continue to do well in this environment, XAG, XPT etc too - USD, leveraged money has gone decently short USD on perception FED will slow, and eventually cut - BBG article and chart below -Equity, FTSE100 (has done nothing for 10years..) breaking up (mining, foreign earnings and cheap GBP..), EZ markets outperforming U.S markets into late 2022 and as we kicked-off the new year -Crude stay near lows-cheap Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 9, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) First negative ISM reading since early pandemic is more proof U.S. economy is slowing (msn.com) Central banks add more gold in November as China joins the fray | Post by Krishan Gopaul | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council GOLD to shine jeroen blokland on Twitter: "#centralbanks have been buying #gold at an unprecedented pace. Is the freeze of #Russia's central bank assets to blame? Potentially big implications for global financial markets. #economy https://t.co/KW3ruv7h1y" / Twitter we will continue to point out these kind of data/research, Gold, Silver, XPT etc all should do pretty well over next couple of years, as rates peak, Fed does too much eventually etc. Optimism Makes Comeback on Wall Street With Soft Landing Eyed - Bloomberg Tory voters losing faith in Brexit benefits, poll finds (telegraph.co.uk) finally saying the obvious, it was a lie, and it was terrible executed! China to make monetary policy more targeted, effective: senior official - People's Daily Online Six Chinese cities have announced GDP growth targets for next year, with most between 5.5% and 7%, on confidence that changes to #Covid policies will lead to economic recovery, Securities Daily reported. http://epaper.zqrb.cn/html/2023-01/09/content_908663.htm?div=-1 Fallen heroes: Central banks face credibility crisis as losses pile up – POLITICO Hedge Funds Ramp Up Dollar Shorts, Betting on Slower Fed Interest Rate Hikes - Bloomberg Why WFH culture has made the impact of strikes even greater | News | The Sunday Times (thetimes.co.uk) >>> One Lombard Street is the City of London’s canteen: an old-fashioned brasserie where deals are sealed over early-morning plates of smoked salmon and scrambled eggs. It usually has up to 150 covers at breakfast time. But last Tuesday, Soren Ulrik Jessen, the owner, surveyed an unfamiliar scene: “For the first time in 25 years, we had zero customers.'' whaooo Why Does Private Equity Get to Play Make-Believe With Prices? | Institutional Investor Brazil authorities seek to punish pro-Bolsonaro rioters - The Himalayan Times - Nepal's No.1 English Daily Newspaper | Nepal News, Latest Politics, Business, World, Sports, Entertainment, Travel, Life Style News CNBC International on Twitter: "Brazil's business elite was one of former president Jair Bolsonaro's most ardent supporters, but the big economic turnaround they hoped for never happened. Here's what happened. https://t.co/kXLWYfKkcQ" / Twitter GOP rep: What ‘backroom deals were cut’ to secure Speakership for McCarthy? | The Hill SPX500 same tech levels, MUCH more, in fact ALL about sectors rotations, bonds/duration and stock picking

-Gridlock in the House speaker election is not really fully priced in U.S CDS markets, however default swaps a little higher than during 2016 election for example or covid period >>> bottom line there will be bigger political tensions in the U.S going forward, can't keep printing money and spend for any populist occasions to calm folks locally..! -China may ease ‘three red lines’ property rules, reopening with HK as of next week -BoJ actively protecting the new 50bps level >>> ''higher for longer'' will force BoJ's hands again in March/April (probably after their financial year-end), once Kuroda is gone, 1% anyone? -Fed's Esther George sees rates staying high at least into 2024 -Inflation "is way too high here in the United States....I and the Federal Open Market Committee remain determined to use our policy tools to bring inflation back toward our objective," Bostic said in brief remarks prepared for delivery at the start of a conference at the New Orleans branch of the Atlanta Fed -U.S homes haven't been this unaffordable since 2007 (when looking at mortgage payments as % of joint medium disposable income) >> similar picture elsewhere -China will reopen its border with Hong Kong after three years. Beijing will gradually allow cross-border travel beginning on Monday, as it continues to unwind strict covid controls -Tesla’s sales in China slumped. The EV maker sold 56,000 cars in December, marking a 21% decline from the year prior, as domestic brands like BYD have seen an uptick in business.. -Mercedes is launching a global EV-charging network. The German carmaker plans to build 10,000 charging points spanning across North America, Europe, and China by 2030 -Silvergate plunges after crypto meltdown triggered deposit run -Citigroup cuts U.S. stocks to ‘underweight’, favours European equities in 2023 Markets : -NASDAQ struggling still (ARKK and low quality names in particular..), commodities, energy, China/HK doing great, FTSE (mining etc), Europe outperforming vs U.S (FAANG's mainly..) - that's the theme of late 2022 and still the case as we kick-off 2023, BBY is another classic example of the kind of casualties 'higher for longer' will bring in 2023/24 -BOJ Faces Renewed Pressure to Defend New Yield Ceiling. New benchmark note fetched a yield of 0.5% on Thursday. BOJ increased its bond-purchase operations on Friday >>> ''higher for longer''...they will have to go higher by March/April again, when Kuroda goes -EURO awaiting that CPI data, leaked earlier in the week, meant to be pretty low, lots priced in this view by now, it better be low! Similarly U.S NFP expected to be higher following this week's data -Week 1 in the new year often/always is week of squeeze of a few consensus trades in place, bonds, USD shorts, USDJPY did not like life sub 130JPY etc (BoJ will go higher but not yet..), commods, CHINA reopening impact is/can be huge, particularly as China keeps swinging with short-term policy U-turn's.. trying to micro manage such a huge economy might not be all that such a great idea ! but markets will swing that's for sure China may ease ‘three red lines’ property rules: Bloomberg | Property | Al Jazeera Fed's Esther George sees rates staying high at least into 2024 (msn.com) Fed's Bostic: Officials "remain determined" to beat inflation (msn.com) BOJ Sees Little Need to Rush Major Yield Adjustments (yahoo.com) Citigroup cuts U.S. stocks to ‘underweight’, favours European equities in 2023 | The Mighty 790 KFGO | KFGO Bed Bath & Beyond preparing to file bankruptcy within weeks -sources | Reuters ....essentially they cannot afford higher debt financing anymore... this IS going to be a massive theme in 2023 and 2024 >>> #higherforlonger in rates will impact the weakest balance-sheets UK house prices post biggest quarterly drop since 2009: Halifax | Reuters Tesla Sales in China Slump as Competition Intensifies - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Mercedes to launch vehicle-charging network, starting in North America | Reuters Credit Suisse reshuffles investment bank after senior departure - memos (ampproject.org) can reshuffle all you want... #higherforlonger matters, debt financing costs !! Silvergate plunges after crypto meltdown triggered deposit run (coinjournal.net) have a wonderful Friday and weekend Team PVM

FOMC minutes : inflation expectations remain high though (higher for longer..), higher Terminal rate - Kashkari (strong JOLTS too yesterday and NFP tomorrow), participants mentioned ''unwarranted easing in financial conditions, market participants misinterpreted a slowing in the pace of rate hikes as a major dovish pivot'' Toyota finally revealed New Hydrogen combustion engine What could go wrong for the Federal Reserve in 2023 >>> '''U.S budget deficit''', well worth reading the article below China and Australia to renew trading of iron ore, coking coal, other goods (after a 2y ban...) another U-Turn for XI...>>> HSI, AUD higher again.. Japan is paying families to move out of Tokyo. It’s offering households ¥1 million ($7,650) per child to leave the capital in an effort to reverse population decline in other regions German Facility, built at breakneck speed, accepts Gas shipment From U.S. LNG cargo arrives at terminal in port town of Wilhelmshaven as Germany scrambles to replace Russian gas South Korea slapped Tesla with a $2.2 million fine. Antitrust authorities found the EV maker exaggerated its driving range German Import Prices -4.5% monthly, +14.5% annually vs expectation of -1.6% and +18% >>> better, going in right direction (thank you warm weather and lower energy prices..) It was a record year for crypto hacks. Decentralized finance was the prime target, accounting for two thirds of all hacks Amazon says it will cut over 18,000 jobs, more than initially planned $19trn negative yielding bonds gone during 2022 (pretty much) - this is/was a huge statement for markets - they should have never existed, but CB were silly (could use a much worse adjective!!..) as we often discussed >>> certainly partly explains MegaTechs, FAANG's hammering, including APPL, please refer to our earlier blog.. Markets: China re-opening/HK/Australia etc, commods, metals, AUD joining in, HSI continues higher, Chinese stocks still trading at a wide discount to Global Peers - big picture Bonds : EZ bonds are now fully anticipating a weak HICP on Friday, could be sub 9%, but what about core, surprise now is if not low enough for markets.. Crude down, competition with coal and LNG...! (China news, Glencore down 10pct..), down 5% yesterday, demand worries and large supply, Gas Prices in Europe continue to decline on LNG imports and warm weather USDJPY didn't like life below 130JPY, lifting crossjpy's again since - could well have put bit of a base on both for a while Big moves/low liquidities (as usual) as we kicked off 2023, AUDJPY, crude, BABA, TSLA, BTP's APPL, NatGas, ,GBP struggling, EZ equity markets 'outperforming' US markets so far, Q1 trend? remains to be seen but interesting Fed minutes December 2022: (cnbc.com) Kashkari sees Fed's target interest rate peaking at 5.4% (msn.com) What Could Go Wrong for the Federal Reserve in 2023 - The Washington Post A must read - regarding U.S budget deficit, which we have spoken with you about extensively during latter part of 2022 A final — albeit more subtle point — is the fact that the Fed’s balance sheet is still greatly enlarged at $8.56 trillion in assets. Quantitative easing added monetary policy stimulus. Thus, that stimulus should have pushed the neutral rate higher. Although that stimulus is now being withdrawn through quantitative tightening, it still will take another year or two to get back to where we started. So, while QT is tightening monetary policy, it is not yet making monetary policy tight relative to where we started. "Fed either pivots too early and turns dovish in to a high inflation scenario which is fairly bearish the USD thus helping gold or they pivot too late and cause a much bigger recession than is priced in right now, resulting flight to safety helps gold." - Goldman The ECB and Christine Lagarde now want to enforce real wage cuts for Euro area workers | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog (wordpress.com) December JOLTS report ‘reasonably strong,’ economist says (yahoo.com) China and Australia to Renew Trading of Iron Ore and Coking Coal (agmetalminer.com) China to open border with Hong Kong for first time in 3 years on Sunday | Reuters More countries are trying to get workers to leave cities (qz.com) 1st tanker carrying LNG from US arrives in Germany | AP News South Korea fines Tesla $2.2m for exaggerating driving range of EVs - Nikkei Asia Over $3 Billion Stolen In Crypto Heists: Here Are The Eight Biggest (forbes.com) Amazon says it will cut over 18,000 jobs, more than initially planned (cnbc.com) Switzerland boosts gold imports from Russia despite sanctions – media - NewsRescue.com Rishi Sunak on Twitter: "As your Prime Minister you need to know what my focus will be, so you can hold me to account directly on whether it is delivered. These are my five promises 👇 https://t.co/XyXrlMshdG" / Twitter >>> his target is halving inflation, that's what predictions are already - nothing new - still will leave it at 5-6%... Nobody wants to confront the truth: Britain is becoming a poor country (telegraph.co.uk) Toyota FINALLY Revealed New HYDROGEN Combustion Engine | GAME CHANGER! - YouTube

-BUND spiked higher yesterday (and everything else follows).. market chatter EZ CPI will be softer, and helped lift DAX and other European markets - EZ CPI and other key macro data coming up this week, with NFP on Friday too -Mild weather is crushing energy demand, sending European gas and power prices sharply lower -China re-opening story is/will be huge - either way for markets, with obvious candidates, like ChinaA50, HSI, commodities, metals, shipping and so on the likely big beneficiaries, still.. (major Eq exchanges charts below) - #Longduration US techs (as warned many times las year, ARKK etc etc) “was” the equity trade of the last decade, that trade is over. Investors got to look forward to the next 3-5-10years, not need to look in the rear-view mirror.. -Croatia just became the Euro's newest member -Musk became the first ever man to lose $200bn (and in just over 1 year..) -The super-rich ‘preppers’ planning to save themselves from the apocalypse -Gold buyers binge on biggest volumes for 55 years. China and Russia have been large accumulators of the precious metal in 2022, analysts say -How private markets became an escape from reality. There will be nowhere to hide in the tight money era-FT -Most market participants expects equity and bonds down in 2023, due to ongoing tight(er) monetary policies and now recession fears, weaker global economic activities, the contrarian will say 'so it will rally''....the real question is what is priced and where, and most importantly whether FED actually cuts by end of 2023/24 as Mr Markets wants and has priced in -BOJ may raise its inflation forecast for FY2023 and 2024 to close to 2%, again, some sort of Japanese 'taper' in 2023 would be a huge surprise for markets, and woul have huge implications too, that all said, USDJPY already down from 150 to 130JPY area >>> remember ? never ever underestimate BoJ over time, back then too many chose to ignore their $75bn UST sales... Markets : - Early kick-off in markets usually pretty wild, as liquidities come at a premium, quite often 'owned' positions challenged, as seen this early morning, 'short usdollar' position challenged (although more of a still CROSSJPY selling price action overall - BoJ inflation expectations..), as well as short equities etc -Technical recap from Saxo below, always worth having a look at them in the new year! - GOLD : A record 399 tons of gold purchases by central banks took place in the third quarter >>> have you got any #XAUUSD exposure ? physical, miners, etc etc and don't forget #XPT either - FWIW ....My new year resolutions are : ..much of the same, be kind to others, never underestimate what markets can do, share the love, avoid greed, focus on real economy, and wish all low paid workers a big pay rise (sorry Central bankers..), keep doing what works, trust your own work #PVMinvestment matrix was slightly up last year in the #longonly category of the investment world Quarterly Technical Outlook - S&P500, Nasdaq100, DAX, FTSE100, FTSE250 and Hang Seng Index | Saxo Group (home.saxo) 2022 : DJIA -8.8% S&P 500 -19.4% Nasdaq -33.1% Bitcoin -64.2% TSLA -65.0% ARKK -67.0% PVM +1% Gold buyers binge on biggest volumes for 55 years | Financial Times (ft.com) Bank of Japan weighs raising inflation forecasts closer to 2% target - Nikkei Asia Izabella Kaminska on Twitter: "NATO weather machine is on:" / Twitter Croatia takes final steps into EU with open border and euro switch | Croatia | The Guardian Citywire Forecast | Switzerland Fixed Income Issue 39 | How to earn yield from crypto most likely a big NO - but of course it depends who you asking The super-rich ‘preppers’ planning to save themselves from the apocalypse | The super-rich | The Guardian How private markets became an escape from reality | Financial Times (ft.com) Only if you want to be pretty bearish US markets: Systemic Calamity | Felix Zulauf - YouTube and do not really listen if you don't want to listen to end of the world stuff Brexit poll: Two years on, two-thirds of Britons support a future referendum on rejoining the EU | The Independent Hope this daily helps you navigate markets ! it should - never hesitate to ask questions about it, about the comments, the charts etc Have a great start to 2023 All best Team PVM

Let's try to describe 2022 is a few words : this is when financial fantasy, misconception or even hallucination ended, and when real life, authenticity or realism came back with a vengeance Not many wanted to see inflation clearly heading north in early 2022 or even late 2021, we did. Not many wanted to accept that rates had to go higher and that QE had to stop, after $30trn of phoney money created last 7+years. We often talked about it : It really changed everything, inflation changed everything, but many are still fighting this idea, as in, rates will come back down in 2023 or 2024 and everything will be fine, it might be, but we continue to think rates will be ''high(er) for longer'' ZIRP, NIRP, free money allowed crazy misallocation of capital and crazy bizz models were put together on the back of a 'fag packet' over the last few years Negative-yielding bonds finally all gone (should have never happened..), remember those, remember that 100y Austria bond ? NO more coins to pump and dump and 'meme stocks' , NO more cheap electricity to mine silly Dogecoin and others De-Globalization is en route, after 30+ years of keeping/forcing inflation down with cheap labour in China/Asia, it's over NO more QE, more like QT now Almost ALL developed and emerging market Central Banks are or have been tightening in 2022 - they may not tighten much in 2023, but it doesn't mean they will cut rates in any hurry Back to reality for many years to come, which is excellent, though it will require some major adjustments in the kind of investments many folks do over next 5years+ Markets : -next potential elephant in the room for 2023 is the Japanese Taper, which would cause big headaches not only in Japan/JPY etc - SPX500 - we stick to the trend-chart below big picture, 'higher for longer' has more negative implications for QQQ, ARKK and al - still -USD may have peaked in 2022, Petroyuan, ECB super hawkish in Dec (BUBA in charge now), RoW cannot continue to spend and increase debt, this game is OVER, bond vigilante spoke for the first time when Kamikaze stepped in, this WAS the first clear signal for everyone that governments HAD to behave now or their currencies (and long-end) would be trashed >>> it is no wonder since that UK episode, that ECB turned hawkish, and even BoJ finally got rid of YCC! -Rates likely staying higher for longer, but not much higher in the US, Terminal rate 5%, rates cannot go much higher with so much debt around the world, best increase QT next -Inflation has peaked, we know this, fine, it will go back down to 4-5% sure, but not 2% -Recession or not in 2023, who knows, slowdown for sure, let's not be distracted by it and continue to invest in solid and sustainable businesses ! IMHO, recession calls from larger banks have become 'consensus', so many contrarian punters think there will be no recession. It is quite clear though, that the negative wealth shock from financial assets/stocks/crypto/bonds etc is seriously beginning to weigh on consumption spending Joe Biden’s green subsidies may backfire, warns EU commissioner - todayuknews With ‘Zero Covid,’ China Proved It’s Good at Control. Governance Is Harder. - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Wealth managers grapple with one of their worst years in a century | Financial Times (richmond.edu) Not the case at PVM ! The internet-famous Shiba Inu who inspired 'doge' memes, and a joke cryptocurrency, is seriously ill with cancer (yahoo.com) can't believe i'm even putting this on here, so 2022 fiction stuff TSMC founder Morris Chang says globalization 'almost dead' - Nikkei Asia Putting Putin and Company in the Dock by Gordon Brown - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) Brexit was grown on the magic money tree | Comment | The Times sure was, one wonders if any party will change their tunes for the next election - never too late to accept that it was a major lie SPX500 topside 4050/4150, trendline resistance and 200dma around 4010 now vs downside 3500-3700 area (lows in Sep-Oct)

EU health officials seek joint stance on measures towards China, India (and others) make some moves on tests requirements and so are the U.S Germany’s government is confident that a key refinery that provides Berlin and swaths of the eastern part of the country with fuel is well positioned to keep running even as the nation is set to begin its ban on Russian oil in the coming days According to reuters (see below ZH article) citing new automotive pricing data from Edmunds, average prices for used Teslas in November were $55,754, down a whopping 17% from a July high of $67,297 UST yield curve has dis-inverted by 40-50bps since the last Fed meeting in mid-Dec, mainly as the 10Y yield has risen >> recession probabilities changed since? Negative-yielding debt (globally) went from zero (2014) to USD 18 trillion (2021 and finally to zero within about 12months! - chart/thread Energy giant ExxonMobil sues EU to block energy windfall tax Virgin Islands Sues JPMorgan for Facilitating Epstein Abuse Saxo special edition from Steen - podcast below - A look at ahead at 2023 Global Investment Banking Revenues are Beginning to Fall —WSJ Markets : APPL 52w lows - chart SPX500 200dma looks far away now - 4015 (topped out very nicely in mid Dec in that 4050-75 region we were talking about). 56% of SPX companies are currently in their buyback blackout period; 70% will be in blackout by end of the week: GS Earnings recession is/will be the buzz word going into 2023 NatGas prices on lows - thank you mild winter USDollar mixed, same ranges all week , slightly softer USDCHF mind. USDJPY topping around 134-135 which is where it should for the bears Bonds a little higher, yields down 3-4-5bps in long-end, ALL about the 1st NFP next week, will set the tone for bonds as we start 2023 BTC stuck in range, risk reward says upside Very limited, so we heading lower GOLD holding up well in all this, central banks been big buyers last 6months/RBI, clearly a few gold bugs could come out fighting in 2023! Special Edition: A look ahead at 2023 Steen Jakobsen | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) cup of tea, feet up, 30mins - well worth a listen Half of passengers on China flight to Italy have COVID - as US becomes fifth country to tighten restrictions on Chinese travellers | World News | Sky News lots of new restrictions, not everywhere mind, let's hope for the best hey! India will require test from most other countries around them, as of 1st Jan, etc Covid in China: US imposes Covid testing for visitors from China - BBC News RBI Emerges As The Largest Gold Buyer Among The Central Banks Across The Globe (adda247.com) Plunging NatGas Prices Incentivizes Power Plants To Ditch Coal | ZeroHedge Germany Is Confident a Key Refinery Will Be Fine Without Russian Oil (yahoo.com) The worst earnings recession since 2008 could hit stocks next year, Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist Mike Wilson says | Business Insider India UK says no plans for Covid tests for China arrivals (cnbc.com) US Virgin Islands Sues JPMorgan for Facilitating Jeffrey Epstein Abuse - Bloomberg (archive.vn) that's some headline to finish 2022 ! Surprise ISIS attack halts life in group’s former de facto capital in Syria (kurdistan24.net) no-one writes or talks much about Syria anymore, it's still a mess Used Tesla Prices Plunge As Demand Evaporates | ZeroHedge jeroen blokland on Twitter: "Negative-yielding #debt went from zero to USD 18 trillion to zero. Have we seen the last of negative-yielding debt? And if so, what alternatives are policymakers looking for? #CBDC ht @riteshmjn https://t.co/rxWlqWKB7Q" / Twitter Energy giant ExxonMobil sues EU to block energy windfall tax - BBC News We’re headed for a recession that’s ‘double the normal length,’ according to the chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates | Fortune No need to agree or disagree, iot's worth reading the thinking of the largest fund in the world - food for thought, in our humble opinion, as you know, we think rates are higher for longer, and it means what it means to various parts/sectors of equity markets... Goldman Sachs boss unveils plan to cut jobs amid global economy fears | Goldman Sachs | The Guardian Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA on Twitter: "Many public stocks are not 'investments'. They are schemes for insiders and bankers to cash out at your expense. The sooner you realize this is the game Wall Street plays, the better. https://t.co/h5px2nDZkJ" / Twitter add SPAC's and a lot of the things that happened last 2years, and it's hard to argue against this.. that all said there was far too many of them 'companies' set-up on the back of a fag-packet.. (easy with rates at zero etc.. all sort of excess were created, as we been trying to pint out all year..), of course there are some very good sustainable ones, but not all of them will make it, bit like after 2001 one would imagine.. Elon Musk tells Tesla staff to ignore ‘stock market craziness’ after shares plummet | Evening Standard it's over.. APPL share price - no matter what anyone thinks, it is 6% of SPX500 - it will matter either way have a lovely day Steph

EZ NatGas prices back where they traded in June before the HUGE price rally! Italy's BTP's... 10y yields around 4.65%...on course to 5%. With Italian public debts near €2.75tn, this will be very expensive for Rome in the long term... Bund 10y yields highest in 12years around 2.5% TSLA down 10% again, sounds like capitulation (ARKK new lows etc..) - the share price was never about how good the cars were, it was a cult, and now the congregation has lost belief, if TSLA does ''an ARKK'', and why not, it's heading back to $40/50 overtime Z's latest : "...think about inflation with geopolitics, resource nationalism ... in mind as the next set of non-linear shocks that will keep inflation above target, forcing CBs to hike interest rates above 5% and keep them high" / Thread below WSJ / What is a bomb cyclone ? HK scraps COVID test for arrivals, vaccine pass, COVID patients no longer have to quarantine in Hong Kong as restrictions are lifted >> HSI 20K....China reopening borders leads other countries to restrict entry BOJ debated rising wages, fading deflation risks at Dec meeting Switzerland urges détente between Serbia and Kosovo Apple’s shipment of iPhone to drop significantly Markets : UST spread 3mo10s is now some 50bps steeper since the lows we saw in mid December >>> MOVE index is on the move again, you know what this means if it continues.. >>> it's almost as if now the 10y UST yield have to notice the move in 10y German yields.. MOVE vs VIX, remember the ''yields vs SPX500'' charts.. it will matter if this continues, ,let alone intensify SPX500 pretty 'steady' in low volumes, more focus on QQQ/TSLA/ARKK etc lagging as per usual, as they should with yields higher USD stable overall, though USDJPY (and CROSSJPY's) reacting to higher yields/steeper curve Apple’s shipment of iPhone to drop significantly: TrendForce - TelecomLead NatGas prices in EU have collapsed - chart - Hot winter! EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote (tradingeconomics.com) Michael Goodwell on Twitter: "🚨 Latest Zoltan 💰 War and Commodity Encumbrance 🔹 "...think about inflation with geopolitics, resource nationalism ... in mind as the next set of non-linear shocks that will keep inflation above target, forcing CBs to hike interest rates above 5% and keep them high" 1/2 https://t.co/Ytwxp4XhOg" / Twitter "Epic Thread": Elon Musk Reacts To Bizarre Tweets By Russian Official's 2023 Predictions (ndtv.com) - pretty sure this didn't help the share price last few days either.. BOJ debated chance of higher wages, inflation - Dec meeting summary (msn.com) This little-known firm with a weird website was central to the misappropriation of FTX customers' money, regulators say (nbcnews.com) Spain Unveils €10 Billion Package of Anti-Inflation Measures (yahoo.com) What Is a Bomb Cyclone? A Winter Storm Explained - WSJ Winter storm Elliott update: Blizzard death toll climbs in Buffalo as Americans grapple with travel chaos | The Independent extraordinary scenes out there, good lord Automakers Could Be Forced To Cut Prices — And Profits — In 2023 | The Daily Caller Charlie Munger: Stop complaining about wealth inequality, life quality (cnbc.com) Munger, the long-time investment partner and friend of fellow billionaire Warren Buffett, says he doesn’t understand why people today aren’t more content with what they have, especially compared to harder times throughout history. Former US president Donald Trump’s tax returns will finally be released on Friday | Evening Standard U.S. weighs new measures for travelers from China (cnbc.com) Not all that straight forward! China Reopening Borders Leads Other Countries to Restrict Entry - Bloomberg What China's Accelerated Reopening Means For The Economy And Markets | ZeroHedge Stock Market Will Get Worse In 2023 Before It Gets Better, JPMorgan Says (forbes.com) a classic economist view...good and bad, bottom line, here at PVM we continue what we have been doing all along, invest for our clients, selecting and investing in solid names that are going to be able to live with 'higher for longer'...all of them with a very solid yield and better metrics than your standard equity Index.. Switzerland urges détente between Serbia and Kosovo - SWI swissinfo.ch 73-year-old pays $370 a month to live in a 1,066-square-foot plane (cnbc.com) why not ! Evening Standard on Twitter: "2022 was a wild year in politics. Here's a look back at the ups and downs of the Conservative Party https://t.co/94wzmnJDg9" / Twitter what a year it was..good grief have a great day Team PVM

US economy grew 3.2% in Q3, an upgrade from earlier estimate, yields up a bit, equity were lower (QQQ lead lower-TSLA got chopped again, not convinced by Elon's words..since the peak of the 'ultra long duration bubble' , Tesla has held up better than many or most other peers, big risk is #TSLA will be the final bastion to fall), USD slightly higher, usual function reaction on the day Elon Musk said Thursday he does not plan to sell any more shares of Tesla for at least the next two years..why should shareholders trust him? he's broken promises many time before Benjamin Netanyahu has officially informed Israeli President Isaac Herzog that he has successfully formed a government, his Likud party said Wednesday Nigeria’s central bank has substantially increased limits it had set for weekly cash withdrawals, loosening restrictions it had put in place to curb the use of cash. Individuals will now be allowed to withdraw up to 500,000 Nigerian naira ($1,122) a week, up from a 100,000 ($225) limit set on Dec 6 Japan's core consumer price inflation edged up to 3.7% in November, the highest it has been since 1981 - it's also happening in JPN..when, not if, do we go to 75bps The founder of collapsed cryptocurrency business #FTX has been bailed for $250m (£208m) after appearing in court charged with one of the biggest frauds in US history - who funded the bail? Russia Says It May Cut Daily Oil Output By 700,000 Barrels Markets : -Same old range on SPX500, duration, #TSLA, ARKK and the likes hit again, no respite there -USD not really managing any meaningful rally on stronger data days, #EURCHF see chart below, could be interesting into 2023 with 'BUBA' in charge of ECB now -Liquidities coming at a premium, as per usual, at this time of the year, whishing you and yours a Merry Christmas Special Edition: Investors’ Wish List for 2023 | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) 30 minutes podcast - cup of tea - feet up and listen Deffner & Zschäpitz: Wirtschaftspodcast von WELT: Das Bullen-Fiasko – die große Börsenwetten-Bilanz 2022 auf Apple Podcasts another podcast on German economics US economy grew 3.2% in Q3, an upgrade from earlier estimate | The Independent Mikael Sarwe on Twitter: "🌎 I have in my 30 years as an economist, strategist and portfolio manager NEVER seen any monetary tightening like this. Welcome to 2023... https://t.co/hbv5kwkFt8" / Twitter yeps, same here and for many of you! EU moves to confiscate Russian oligarchs’ assets – POLITICO The U.S Senate also authorized confiscation of Russian assets Alameda’s Caroline Ellison and FTX’s Gary Wang pleaded guilty of fraud (qz.com) Sam Bankman-Fried's close associates are cooperating with US authorities after reaching plea agreements, why let them out on bail?.. and who paid for the 250mio usd bail ?... Musk Promises Not To Sell More Tesla Stock—But He’s Broken Vow Before (forbes.com) Musk only cares about Elon.. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu informs Israeli president he has formed government | CNN Nigerian central bank raises $225 cash withdrawal limits | Business and Economy News | Al Jazeera state control! ‘Global Britain’ must accept that the world’s trading system has changed | Business | The Times Brexiteers used to claim that the biggest Brexit opportunity was a free trade deal with America. Instead Brexiteer ministers are reduced to impotently raging at American protectionism/FT Londoners warned to travel only if necessary as strikes and Christmas shut transport network down (cityam.com) all is well China Covid News: Soaring Cases Push Economic Activity Off A Cliff - Bloomberg herd immunity is what is required/hoped for ! Investing in an era of higher interest rates and scarcer capital | The Economist >>> that's what we been doing successfully for a while for our clients China Covid Cases Surge Infecting 37 Million People a Day, According to Estimate - Bloomberg EURCHF - '''could'' get interesting above 0.9925/50+ into year-end and 2023.. particularly with 'BUBA' in charge of ECB now..the hawks are in charge - end of All best from Team PVM Steph

-The Chicago PMI fell to 37.2 in November, these are levels consistent with almost 100% probability of a recession. US housing market. Existing home sales now just a fraction above pandemic lows and the worst since 201, Nov. makes it 10th straight months of U.S. home sales declines, which is unprecedented -European NatGas prices on lowest level since June, mild temperature + record LNG imports + inventories pretty full, easing supply concerns -China to cut quarantine for overseas Travelers from January -Market cap of Big Tech is down about $4.5 trillion!, 40% from peak -The biggest money printers now are the Bank of Japan. With their YCC tweak, total assets should no longer increase as much/Thread, eventually BoJ will have to go to 75bps, probably sometime in March 2023, unless pressure heats up earlier Markets : -SPX500 picked up momentum above 3835, as expected..Nike results helped sentiment too -UST curve steepened 5bps or so, mixed data + a strong 20y auction, seasonally weak liquidity, volumes super low in both bonds and equity markets -GOLD chart below - bulls need 1850$+ -USD remains on defensive, but no lower, though AUD popping it's head higher on further China reopening news PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) this yearly stuff makes you think, well worth a read Which one of these top 10 'outrageous prediction' do you fanzy ? ForexLive on Twitter: "Total freeze in the US housing market. Existing home sales now just a fraction above pandemic lows and the worst since 2011. No buyers. Sellers holding out. No one wants to move. https://t.co/A0yzsUrXso" / Twitter Richard Bernstein Advisors on Twitter: "ARKK vs #NASDAQ: With all apologies to Gertrude Stein, a bubble is a #bubble is a bubble. (Chart: The Daily Shot @soberlook) *RBA does not hold ARKK in any of its portfolios. https://t.co/6tQH6hpCo3" / Twitter rate going to stay elevated in 2023... Nike surges after results top expectations and retailer shows inventory progress (msn.com) Micron announces 10% staff reduction, suspends bonuses (cnbc.com) Opinion-in-brief: The government can't get a grip on migration (cityam.com) Palantir lands 75 million pound deal with British military (cnbc.com) Tesla (TSLA) to implement hiring freeze and new round of layoffs | Electrek Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "The biggest money printers now are the Bank of Japan. With their YCC tweak, total assets should no longer increase as much. https://t.co/x3Hk6ScKeP" / Twitter (((The Daily Shot))) on Twitter: "The IPO bubble has popped. https://t.co/aoYznxlysW" / Twitter Interview with Le Monde (europa.eu) Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Éric Albert on 15 December and published on 22 December GOLD $1850 is the 61.8% - break of which required to get bulled up for 2023

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Conservative Republicans in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday expressed outrage at a $1.66 trillion government funding bill, but signaled that they did not intend to significantly delay the measure, which could lead to a weekend partial government shutdown ECB - clearly the BUBA and Co (Schnabel) are back in charge, this is the clear message after the Dec ECB meeting BoJ finally moved! as expected they widened YCC to 50bp, market goes from 25bps to 49bps immediately, till such time (maybe April when Kuroda is gone) they move to 75bp etc etc The British public is beginning to regret Brexit. This shift will allow a future government to bring the UK closer to the EU again U.S Housing 'no sign of stabilization' - PICT thread FT-UK military morale hit as ministers increasingly turn to army to fill civilian roles - what a political shittshow (excuse my french..) Elon Musk has said he will quit as chief executive of Twitter as soon as he has found “someone foolish enough” to take over, but will remain in charge of the software and server teams Markets : SPX500 - still in that trend - chart update - in very short-term '3835' much talked about - see below thread Gold, XPT and particularly Silver had a good move last few days, BIG focus on Gold, which could very well be heading higher in 2023 USD struggling a little, though the JPY reset as usual came through both USDJPY and CROSSJPY's - is there more to come ? take some profit from here and look again, over the long-term USDJPY 110-120 area is where both sides tended to be OK with.. Tesla wipeout as 2022 draws to a close | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Today we look at markets posting an indifferent day yesterday after an initially negative reaction to the bump in global yields on the Bank of Japan's policy tweak. We also discuss precious metals jump yesterday, the lay of the land in natural gas markets in Europe and crude oil markets globally, the escalating risks for Tesla as it posted an especially ugly day yesterday despite Musk possibly moving away from Twitter distractions, earnings from Nike and FedEx and more. Today is the final regular daily Saxo Market Call podcast for 2022. Stay tuned in coming days for a string or recently recorded Special Edition podcasts that will keep listeners with their daily fix through to December 30. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX Ed Bradford on Twitter: "It's remarkable how the 2023 rate cuts persist despite constant Fed pushback. Using SOFR H3-Z3 spread as a proxy, cuts have been priced since late Spring of this year. https://t.co/AAOCOfMc7m" / Twitter Patrick Zweifel on Twitter: "1/3 No sign yet of stabilization of the #US housing market √ Activity has fallen to its lowest level in over 10 years √ The speed of contraction (-23% y/y) is the fastest in the >40-year history of our index https://t.co/uDmsKUbXpT" / Twitter Thomas Thornton on Twitter: "S&P 3835 is the strike of the JPM call position. JPM has a huge options trade on called a collar, that is part of its hedged equity fund. This large position has a big impact on options dealer hedging activity around the strike, which is around current levels. CONTINUED" / Twitter U.S. Senate Republicans signal they will not block $1.66 trillion spending bill (msn.com) Bundesbankpräsident Joachim Nagel rechnet mit kräftigen Lohnzuwächsen | STERN.de Financial Times on Twitter: "Opinion: The British public is beginning to regret Brexit. This shift will allow a future government to bring the UK closer to the EU again https://t.co/okCJs7Qt2t https://t.co/EP73yx7ksq" / Twitter Bitcoin miner Core Scientific filing for bankruptcy, will keep mining (cnbc.com) Elon Musk will quit as Twitter CEO once he finds replacement ‘foolish enough’ to take over (telegraph.co.uk) Canada's Real Estate Bubble Is Now The Largest Ever, Correction Needed: RBC - Better Dwelling SPX500 - bulls need 3835+ and previous lows 3920+ to really get a Xmas rally >>> overall we remain defensive, looking for more opportunities in 'quality' balance-sheet names for our clients in 2023 and beyond

ECB - pretty much as hawkish as one could be, pretty grim new forecasts and rates guidance, might not be a shock for markets to price more hikes in Q2 2023..ECB says expects to raise rates "significantly further" because inflation far too high. ECB: Inflation seen at 6.3% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025...very hawkish revisions, this could be pretty ugly period for EZ bonds, BTP's etc..They failed all year to react early!!! and now they are stepping up (when the economy is clearly slowing), it's easy for them at the ECB, they have ZERO #accountability - the whole lot of them are going to damage life for folks Additionally, The ECB to continue to be flexible in its PEPP reinvestment (as needed) and added that QT will begin in March at a "measured, predictable pace", with the average monthly decline in bonds will amount to 15 billion euros until the end of the second quarter, more than one-third of ECB officials wanted to hike by 75 bps FRANKFURT, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Inflation in Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, is likely to be higher than earlier thought while economic growth will be weaker with a recession next year now certain, the Bundesbank said on Friday in a biannual update of its economic forecasts >>> HUGE message, the north is back in charge of monetary policy, rates are heading up, peripheral markets beware Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said Wednesday that former President Trump is “absolutely guilty” of a crime surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. "The growth slowdown is not yet priced, and that's what's going to determine the winners," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says on inflation and his outlook for 2023 SEC charges 8 influencers in $100 million 'pump-and-dump' scheme -New York will ban the sale of dogs, cats and rabbits in pet stores starting in 2024 - WSJ EU leaders grant Bosnia EU candidate status TSLA : when the CEO sells a chunk of shares on 2y lows, market cap has halved last 12months >>> "There's a New Sheriff in town": Twitter nukes dozens of Liberals from platform As Kuroda bows out, Bank of Japan's rising hawks eye end to unloved yield cap -Phili Fed: ”In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 (!!) estimated”.. wow Pacifist Japan unveils unprecedented $320 bln military build-up UK vs French private debt to GDP - who would have thought France was 284% vs UK 187% - charts below German 10y real yields (10y yields - 10y inflation expectations) have turned positive again after y'days hawkish ECB pivot Markets : DJ had its worst day in 3 months, fell more than 700 points as recession fears growing following weak data in the US and China + more importantly a ''shockingly hawkish ECB clearly did not help'', this after a hawkish Fed/higher terminal rate etc OPEX day, some $4trn maturing today, should be fairly quiet till the final hour! EURO rallies on super hawkish Lagarde, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURUSD and EURCHF fairly steady to slightly higher only. USDollar higher vs risk currencies on risk-off move in equity markets. GBP weaker, BoE was not hawkish at all with inflation above 10%.. SPX500 breaking down through 3920 area of support, which has help for over1month, QQQ, #APPL and DAX similar negative picture/momentum, bunker down, let's hope I'm wrong but this looks a little eminiscent of December 2018!!...the BIG difference is that there is 2trn of cash sitting around in RRP.. Investors are 24.3% Bullish to 44.6% Bearish, per the AAII Sentiment Surve Crude a little softer together with rest of markets Watch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, hold fire until global outlook clearer - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Bundesbank sees recession, higher inflation in Germany | Reuters Bank of England imposes ninth consecutive interest rate rise to tackle inflation | Business News | Sky News United Kingdom Private Debt to GDP - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 1995-2021 Historical (tradingeconomics.com) vs France Private Debt to GDP - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 1995-2021 Historical - Chart (tradingeconomics.com) - Kinzinger says Trump ‘absolutely guilty’ of crimes ahead of Jan. 6 | The Hill TikTok algorithm drives teens to dangerous content says new study (cityam.com) Commodity Insights Gas on Twitter: "Germany misses gas savings target again as consumption dips only 5% in Week 49 | https://t.co/YcLHdL1uhx *#Germany advocating for 20% gas use reduction *Target clearly missed even adjusted for temperature *European #gas prices remain historically high #ONGT https://t.co/YASZcGBvOz" / Twitter SEC Charges FinTwit Bros in $100 Million Pump and Dump Scheme - TheStreet Only 8 ? what about Elon pumping Dogecoin and al ?.. Elon Musk sold shares worth $3.6 billion of Tesla. Shares of his electric-vehicle company, the world’s most valuable carmaker, has halved this year, underperforming both automakers and the broader tech-heavy Nasdaq Thomas Thornton on Twitter: "Both of these charts should work lower https://t.co/l0szSeI5Uf" / Twitter Twitter bans some journalists who cover Elon Musk - BBC News >>>> Muks in only in it for Musk..doesn't care about anyone else.. November sales down as online retail flops despite Black Friday (cityam.com) Apple looks beyond China for production as dalliance turns sour (msn.com) Everyone asking about APPL, our thoughts are here : Apple vs. Microsoft? Outperforming fund manager says there's a clear winner (cnbc.com) #APPL increased debt along the way for their sharebuybacks... the key is net equity! Ten_Bagger on Twitter: "Phili Fed: ”In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 (!!) estimated”.. wow. https://t.co/OfBmRg7UUv" / Twitter quite how they all guess this data has always been the question.. pure guessing it is! Pacifist Japan unveils unprecedented $320 bln military build-up | Reuters