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Fed set to deliver another big rate hike, debate December downshift Biden threatens higher taxes on oil companies if they do not work to lower gas prices MS : Last year, “when money supply (M2) was growing by 27%Y .. it was crystal clear that 2.6%Y inflation was likely to explode higher. Fast forward to today .. M2 is now growing at just 2.5%Y.. the seeds have been sown for a sharp fall next year .. look out below.” Goldman: U.S rates headed to 5% Mainland Chinese investors have been NET BUYERS of Hong Kong stocks every single session in October Exxon is taking a pretty strong swing at EU energy policy/BBG U.S Personal savings rate ticked back down in September to 3.1%; cushion continues to evaporate as rate hovers near lowest since GFC (thread-chart) Euro zone inflation hits record high of 10.7% as growth slows sharply China's companies rewrite rules to declare Communist Party ties....More mainland-listed companies acknowledge 'Xi thought' in corporate constitutions / NikkeiAsia news Australia's central bank lifts rate by quarter point, as expected. Inflation is now expected to peak around 8% later this year. Rates up, prices down….Sydney house prices have dropped by 10 per cent this year, according to latest data - ABC News JPY : enough is enough.?.... Toyota net income down by a quarter as weak yen failed to offset higher raw material prices and semiconductor shortages UK : Treasury insiders said that Sunak and chancellor Jeremy Hunt had agreed on Monday that while “those with the broadest shoulders should be asked to bear the greatest burden”, everybody’s taxes would go up, just when BoE is about to hike 75bps and start QT..tough Urs Rohner und die Schuld am CS-Desaster and Credit Suisse Restructuring Involves Substantial Execution Risk/FitchRatings 37% of US small businesses, which between them employ almost half of all Americans working in the private sector, were unable to pay their rent in full in October ill Brazil’s Bolsonaro concede election loss? Incumbent expected to break silence today (best do it soon before it turns for the worse..) Markets : Chinese markets are ‘rallying’ ! just when everyone got too bearish ? see techs below, hard to know exactly how far down we could go, let’s just say it’s a lot cheaper than it was 2years ago, add some rumours that China might adjust its ‘zero covid’ policy, IF true, this is potentially BIG for anything macro going into 2023...(this was sort of denied by the Chinese foreign ministry) >>> BUY downside USDCNH 6months exp...if true this is going to move, anyway we are looking for signs of peak usd, peak inflation, peak worries etc...this would be one of them – China re-opening Dow Jones up 14% in October, real economy awakening, as it should really, given inflation etc etc USDollar – all about FOMC and presser, outlook or Dec and 2023 >>> the surprise INTO year-end, given strong usd long positioning, could come from aa not too hawkish Fed either pre med-terms, but that’s too political, most likely in Dec, AUD and cChina we could see a decent reaction there etc.. Equity markets : the next 200pts on SPX 500 is all down to Fed really, mini-pivot or not, call it what you wish... technically we can go to 4150 and/or re-test recent cycle lows, FWIW..tend to favour topside, but tricky road map ahead! https://twitter.com/i/status/1586742825693192192 Lagarde '''inflation came up from...pretty much nowhere'', quell joke I’m sorry, this is so bad Unreal, frightening, where is the accountability ? https://twitter.com/MenthorQpro/status/1587250997440745480 Japan is burning through FX reserves at the speed of light. This is not sustainable. Next round they will start selling Treasuries and guess what that will do? Spike Treasury yields higher and make the USD stronger which weakens the Yen. And we go round and round https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV/status/1585400349086871552container shipping rates falling form peak (chart) https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1587325291529134087 Housing Recession | U.S. pending home sales fell 35% YoY (the largest annual decline and the fewest homes under contract in any October since at least 2015) - Redfin *A record 7.9% of homes for sale had a price drop https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-31/us-small-business-rent-delinquency-rates-rise-sharply-in-october More Than a Third of US Small Businesses Couldn’t Pay All Their Rent in October https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equity/ta-hsi-a50-31102022 Technical Update - Free falling Hang Seng and China A50 could drop much lower – charts The amount of unsold new homes increased to a 15year high in HK https://www.ft.com/content/2d3084f1-8956-4347-8dbb-191ad1aee64b?shareType=nongift George Soros: Issuing perpetual bonds would show that Sunak is serious The new UK premier needs to reassure financial markets after the chaos caused by Truss and Kwarteng https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1585977050170548224 Exxon is taking a pretty strong swing at EU energy policy – see thread/chart Fed set to deliver another big rate hike, debate December downshift http://reut.rs/3WguqPS MORGAN STANLEY: Last year, “when money supply (M2) was growing by 27%Y .. it was crystal clear that 2.6%Y inflation was likely to explode higher. Fast forward to today .. M2 is now growing at just 2.5%Y .. the seeds have been sown for a sharp fall next year .. look out below.” https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1586894471727300610 peak usd / peak inflation / peak worries etc...let’s see what FOMC ha to say https://www.businessinsider.com/mike-wilson-morgan-stanley-federal-reserve-pivot-stock-market-outlook-2022-10?r=US&IR=T Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the Fed will pivot from interest rate hikes 'sooner rather than later' to help stocks rally by his predicted 6% Goldman: rates headed to 5% https://twitter.com/BrianSozzi/status/1587008545660305408 https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1586763249671966721 Global markets don't really care who wins in Brazil today. All they want is an orderly, uncontested transition of power. If that happens, Brazil will be by far the hottest EM going into 2023. Brazilian Real will quickly go below 5.00 and converge towards our 4.50 fair value... All About real rates! https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1586758972924723200 https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV/status/1586940180526936064 Mainland Chinese investors have been NET BUYERS of Hong Kong stocks every single session in October https://citywire.com/ch/news/swiss-national-bank-records-biggest-loss-ever/a2401241?re=102553&refea=1898423 Swiss National Bank records biggest loss ever The central bank’s results are mainly dependent on capital markets, foreign exchange and gold.... well it’s not that simple !!....but clearly it will have some fiscal consequences.. https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1587037801475883010 Personal savings rate ticked back down in September to 3.1%; cushion continues to evaporate as rate hovers near lowest since GFC – whaoo https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/credit-suisse-restructuring-involves-substantial-execution-risk-28-10-2022 Fitch Ratings-London-28 October 2022: Credit Suisse’s planned restructuring to scale back its investment bank and reallocate capital to its global wealth-management business will involve substantial execution risk, Fitch Ratings says. The plan, announced on 27 October, does not have immediate rating implications as it is consistent with our prior expectations. It will lead to further delays in improving profitability, one of the group’s main weaknesses. Credit Suisse does not expect to reach its revised target core return on tangible equity of at least 8% before 2025. However, the restructuring, if successful, could lead to reduced earnings volatility https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/euro-zone-inflation-hits-10point7percent-in-october-.html Euro zone inflation hits record high of 10.7% as growth slows sharply https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Inflation/Australia-s-central-bank-lifts-rate-by-quarter-point-as-expected Australia's central bank lifts rate by quarter point, as expected Inflation is now expected to peak around 8% later this year https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/joe-biden-threatens-higher-taxes-on-oil-companies-amid-high-gas-prices.html that’s going a little far.. “Their profits are a windfall of war,” Biden said, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which prompted Western sanctions that reduced oil supply. “It’s time for these companies to stop their war profiteering.” https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-63465935 Treasury warns of tax rises to fill financial hole https://www.handelszeitung.ch/bilanz/credit-suisse-wie-viel-schuld-tragt-urs-rohner-am-desaster-536738?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=article_traffic&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&twclid=24srtv4jrdic28keonavsezcna#Echobox=1664861490 Urs Rohner und die Schuld am CS-Desaster – equal to anyone in management over last 10+ years? Have a great day Steph & Team

Deutsche Bank: The BOJ is reaching near-full ownership of the 10yr bonds it can buy — “the time is soon approaching where these bonds will stop trading in their entirety and the market will simply cease to exist.” There will be no willing sellers at the BOJ’s purchase price The goal of the EU is not to freeze, but to confiscate Russian assets in Europe, but for this it is necessary to prepare a legal framework - von der Leyen.. Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz believes that after the victory, Ukraine will become a powerful supplier of "green" energy, a giant in the digital industry, a member of the European Union and, in general, a state with justice and infrastructure that others will emulate UK Government’s medium term fiscal plan is to be delayed til Nov 17. Will be rebranded as an Autumn Statement – Gilts reacting a little softer CNH has largest daily up move in a very long time – talks of intervention, signs of a few ‘state-owned banks’ selling USDCNH.. U.S. home price growth slows at the fastest pace on record: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data (thread-chart) Mercedes-Benz raised its full-year profit forecast on Wednesday as strong demand for luxury cars and cost savings offset the supply chain bottlenecks that have hampered industry output this year The German cabinet has approved an investment by China's Cosco for a 24.9% stake in one of logistics company HHLA's three terminals in the country's largest port in Hamburg -- less than the 35% stake the Chinese shipping group was aiming for and without any say in management or strategic decisions Markets : Bonds vols peaked - MOVE Index peaked #peakusd #peakhawkishness >>> it has ALL been about bonds lately, will remain so, as we often said FedFunds near 4.5% will be ‘it’, with so much debt in the world (2x levels from 10+ years ago..) there is little or no way rates can actually go much higher, unless Central Banks wanted to trigger a depression...they don’t ..clearly a few things spooked them last 2weeks..underneath the bonnet...hence they sent out last Friday both WSJ Timiraos (the new Hylsenrath..) and Fed’s Daly... USD peaked, US data softer, month-end flows helping as mentioned yesterday.. Equity markets is rally mode, although Google and MSFT a reminder that not all is well is big mega cap growth companies..both down 6% after earnings. Remember the HUGE buying of Puts we referred to 2-3weeks ago ? they are unwinding....''buy a hedge when you can, not when you must..''' (when markets are on lows)....the crowd loaded on puts on market lows.. And crypto rallied – bond stopped, usd peaked.. all the same trade https://twitter.com/economics/status/1585080405606252544Japan’s mom-and-pop investors are taking the opportunity of intervention-driven yen surges to build up bets on further weakness in the beleaguered currency ....hum...IMHO do not underestimate BoJ, (particularly if-when joined by PBOC and others...) ..over last few decades, in the end their interventions were powerful, not always obvious within days or weeks though, as is now... https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen/status/1585193273718501376 The coming rise in Europe from lower energy prices.. This is simple model using PEAK Panic in energy as impulse & now drop to predict PMI.. Result: EU PMI Comp. should rise from 47.0 to at least 53/54 in Q4 against strong negative EU consensus of "deep recession"... https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2022/10/26/the-ecb-interest-rate-rise-tomorrow-will-create-as-many-problems-as-it-solves/ The ECB interest-rate rise tomorrow will create as many problems as it solves Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says he and the PM are wanting to make sure their decisions "stand the test of time" following the announcement that the government's economic plan will be delayed from Halloween to 17 November. Read more: https://trib.al/WJl2ZKh https://www.ft.com/content/2269c835-1a82-45ff-85f4-7ae7fbfa7e4a Japan’s yield curve control is “broken” https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/chinas-risk-premium-on-the-rise-critical-earnings-week-ahead-24102022 Summary: Chinese equities are significantly lower today following the country's leadership shuffle over the weekend as investors are increasingly readjusting lower their views on longer term growth in private sector profits. Chinese equities are selling at a historical discount to US equities in a sign of a rising equity risk premium on Chinese equities. This rising equity risk premium comes also with risk for the US equity market as many US companies have large revenue exposure to China. We also take a look at the Q3 earnings season and the upcoming earnings this week which will determine the short-term sentiment and reaction. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/25/alphabet-googl-q3-2022-earnings-.html Alphabet misses on earnings as YouTube shrinks; company will cut headcount growth by half in Q4 - Microsoft warns of cloud computing slowdown https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/25/spotify-spot-earnings-q3-2022.html 99 euro cents vs. an estimated loss of 85 euro cents per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv Hilton reports rise in quarterly profit on strong travel demand http://reut.rs/3DyleyV https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1584896260829433856?s=46&t=s9y4z9BxpOHPa2FKVYG6yw U.S. home price growth slows at the fastest pace on record: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Germany-allows-China-s-Cosco-to-take-24.9-stake-in-largest-port Germany allows China's Cosco to take 24.9% stake in largest port Lower share in terminal agreed after Germans burned by dependence on Russian gas

BofA : massive & accelerating private client inflow into bonds. BofA: Based on both the original and the updated forecasts YoY headline CPI inflation should fall below 4% by mid2023 and below 3% by Dec-2023 / early 2024 Sunak to party ‘’Unite or die’’, about time, been like watching a slow-motion car crash last few years Yardeni Bull/Bear ratio down to 0.78 – doesn’t get much lower than this for long (thread-chart) China ADRs tumbled as Xi's new team sparks worries over economy's path – pretty concerning overall the last 3-4days..(or is it time to be a little of a contrarian?) >>> maybe..“China growth data surprised positively over the weekend, but their equity market is selling off strongly today. We believe this is a goodopportunity to add given an expected growth recovery, gradual COVID reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus’.. JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic Used auto prices have turned sharply negative, which should be reflected in the CPI this winter. Overall auto inventories have finally started rising sharply, bolstering our view of sales price cuts in the winter and spring:" Brian Reynolds of Reynolds Strategy (thread-chart), NatGas prices in Europe have come down some 70pct now, euro 90 per MWh (was 300+ in summer..) – mild weather helping clearly helping – but strangely enough markets very quiet about it, should be quite a positive/less negative!....AND...Shanghai to LA container rates are almost back to pre-COVID normality, lower inflation ahead The S&P 500 and other risk markets, in the short term, can trade higher, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets GS : U.S economy does not appear to be on the brink of recession at the moment, "Our recession odds of 35% over the next 12 months are roughly triple the unconditional average for a typical year in recent decades but are well below the 63% consensus odds. One aspect of the consensus forecast that we are particularly sceptical of is the implicit view that rate hikes of the size we expect or just a bit larger will be enough to cause a recession" MS rates ‘guru’ Matt Hornback – rates turning Liberals urge Biden to rethink Ukraine strategy. Democratic lawmakers’ letter calls for direct U.S. talks with Russia EU Warns That Price Cap on Gas for Power Needs UK, Swiss Involvement Scholz and Macron meet to calm rising Franco-German tensions – FT European natural gas prices fall below €100/MWhfor the first time since June Markets : USDCNH 7.33 (weakest since 2007..AND largest annual depreciation in Yuan in over 25years), let’s see if BoJ continues (the market is clearly ignoring BoJ, somewhat rightly so as long as YCC remains, but in many ways one should not ignore BoJ for long given interventions they conducted over last 30years or so – that I can remember of, eventually hey tended to win, the key though in those circumstances was ‘coordinated’ interventions, Yellen said ‘she wasn’t aware of BoJ intervention last Friday’..(probably just a way to say it wasn’t coordinated’, yet?) Month-end flows in the mix for rest of the week (big earnings days ahead with MSFT, AAPL, AMZN and many others), Bonds could catch a small month-end bid, which should support further short-covering in SPX500 (3820+ key s-t level) and push USDollar a little softer, particularly with few calls coming in talking ’peak rates’ (MS below now), UK situation should calm down (big downside risk over), Russia and China geo-politics worrying though big picture UK Gilts yield curve decently lower across board yesterday, welcoming Sunak as leader The BoJ's YCC is, for all intents and purposes, already broken (thread-chart) – 30y yields around 60bp, not hard to see why JGB’s could be the next shoe to drop Emerging Market stock prices are nearing the COVID lows – MSCI emerging markets, charts/thread ‘’on this almost historic rout in Chinese stocks’’ below, though bouncing back today after yesterday’s rout SPX500, 3820+ and we could push another leg higher into month-end, also note CTA’s short position possibly flipping above that lev too, and share buy backs return over next few days..DAX quietly back to near 13K #GBPUSD oversold long-term - long road ahead, break 1.15+ #CABLE could push to 1.25 area over few months - particularly if/when FED goes on pause ECB next to deliver 75bps on Thursday, FED meeting in early Nov (50 or 75bps and a pause..) and med-term elections MS Rates guru Matt Hornbach : (....looking for signs pf peak usd, peak inflation, peak rates....few joining in the call...) "...if global growth weakness continues to weigh on commodity prices, headline PCE inflation may annualized even lower, given tough comparisons to prices last year. So the tanker is turning, we think, and investors should start preparing for pink skies. ...Our core view is that the Fed will not deliver more hikes than priced in, and both inflation and economic data optics will allow them to do so...We think the environment remains conducive to consolidation of Treasury yields, as we head into an FOMC meeting where Powell could reinforce the recent Fed speak, which seems to be cautioning against infinitely extrapolating higher terminal rates." “The S&P 500 and other risk markets, in the short term, can trade higher,” Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets says during an interview on “Bloomberg Markets: European Close” https://trib.al/AnNbBAK https://twitter.com/maxjanderson/status/1584016375554527233?s=46&t=BZWaHJC7cMIAA4FJtKlmSg This is wild !! The average 30yr fixed mortgage just hit 7.2%. Last time rates were this high (Q4 2000), median US home price was $172,900 (~4x median salary) Today, median US home price is $440,300 (~6.5x median salary), ie the impact of higher rates YTD is going to be massive already A political backlash against monetary policy is looming https://ft.com/content/6f70bbcd-72b7-4518-be6b-401adba7cc34 https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/10/25/plunging-markets-defy-intervention-in-s-korea-taiwan Plunging markets defy intervention in S. Korea, Taiwan https://twitter.com/patrick_saner/status/1584604995420585984 The BoJ's YCC is, for all intents and purposes, already broken. Bonds with lower and higher maturities than the 10y now trade with higher yields than the cap. If it wasn’t for the BoJ's interventions, the entire yield curve would be significantly higher. Amazing chart by DB https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1584503134436487168 The Housing Market boom is coming to an end...."In Canada & Sweden they have fallen by more than 8% since February; in New Zealand they have fallen by more than 12% since their peak last year"...Risks still remain. Here's a chart from the Economist ranking the most exposed countries https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1584541291668701185 "Used auto prices have turned sharply negative, which should be reflected in the CPI this winter’ https://twitter.com/gamesblazer06/status/1583482180033912832/photo/1 Bulls & Bears indicators – as bearish as can be ..?../ chart https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1584544220244635648 Global recession is coming. German new export orders are now below their COVID lows (blue). This is about weak global demand since it's about export orders. This metric is also tumbling for the US (red) and UK (pink). Only place holding up is Japan given the weak Yen (orange)... https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1584547882111479810 Xi’s wartime cabinet is in place. His 20th Party Congress purge not only installed loyalists, but two spy chiefs, and military leaders responsible for China’s ‘reunification’ with Taiwan. He sacked the only three men with markets experience (the heads of the PBOC, the CSRC,... China ADRs tumble as Xi's new team sparks worries over economy's path http://reut.rs/3TRyaFG https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV/status/1584685388614209539 charts on this almost historic rout in Chinese stocks (charts-thread) Chinese stocks rebound from a historic selloff, with the Hang Seng Tech Index jumping as much as 6.1% and Hong Kong-listed stocks up 2% after reaching 14-year lows https://trib.al/ycpedxO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QerC4htj-Po Dr Boom, Doom and Gloom, usual caveats, but still....Marc Faber: A Massive Systemic Shock Is Coming & The Fed Is Actively Courting It – it’s bit long and a lot of ranting but there you go, lots of very good point. He clearly was on top form that evening https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/24/bidens-student-loan-forgiveness-plan-is-on-hold-what-borrowers-need-to-know.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1666637725 Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan is on hold. Here are key issues borrowers need to know U.S. prosecutors charged two Chinese nationals with trying to obstruct prosecution of a Chinese telecommunications company that a person familiar with the matter identified as Huawei Technologies https://reut.rs/3D6LhvI https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/24/biden-ukraine-liberals/ A group of 30 House liberals is urging President Biden to dramatically shift his strategy on the Ukraine war and pursue direct negotiations with Russia, the first time prominent members of his own party have pushed him to change his approach to Ukraine Tesla has cut starter prices for its Model 3 and Model Y cars by as much as 9% in China. The Chinese price cuts contrast with the U.S., where the cost of a new Tesla has been climbing steadily since last year https://reut.rs/3N3yv5J https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-63381455 Newspaper headlines: 'Here comes the Sunak' and 'Unite or die' Rishi Sunak is set to become Britain’s youngest prime minister and is now at the helm of a country desperately in need of some stability. Here’s how he's risen to the top of British politics https://reut.rs/3gqSsam Have a great day Steph & Team

FED’s Daly was sent to calm things down on Friday, IMHO, a few things were starting to break down behind the scene....now the word is another 75bps in Nov, and a pivot /WSJ-Timiraos on Friday..let’s see if we hear more from other FED members this week..>>> USD, Equity and 2y UST’s is what moved and should move first on a ‘pivot’, as you know we been looking for signs of #peakFOMC #peakrates >>> this may be a start, although we would need weaker US data to confirm, maybe Q3 data on Thursday >>> FED said they were data dependent but they leaked to WSJ potential for a pivot, the FED might well have seen a few things creaking in the background.. After BoJo retiring from the race last night,we’ll probably get Sunak in at N.10 by 2pm, could be a slow crawl back towards sanity for a while ! Bar any new news this morning ECB meeting Thursday, expectation of at least 75bps hike BoJ ‘intervened’ again on Friday, with USDJPY dropping from 151.50+ to a low 146.50 on Friday, BoJ meets on Friday, mostly expected to do nothing as per usual, but the market is kind of forcing the issue to drop YCC, estimate 20-25bn USD, and YET he JPN government talks stimulus plan must exceed $100 billion, says ruling party executive – Reuters, and finally : Japan’s Top Currency Diplomat Kanda: No Comment On Intervention On Monday Morning -Will Respond Appropriately To Excessive Moves While Monitoring Market 24-7 China’s Xi put his men in to strengthen is grab on power (thread) European Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton, said that the European Union has successfully achieved energy independence from Russia. "No one thought that we would be able to do it, because we depended on Russia. We depended on 40%, and now- only on 7%," — he said. Russia's Shoigu holds second call with U.S. defense secretary in three days 'Elon, The Everywhere' — Elon Musk is worrying government officials with his growing presence in global affairs, report says Equity funds are still seeing inflows despite deeply pessimistic sentiment, with “final capitulation” not yet here, according to strategists at Bank of America (BofA) .Global stock funds had inflows of $9.2 billion in the week through October 19, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. Foreign investors accelerated selling of Chinese A-shares as Beijing held its twice-a-decade Party Congress, offloading 29.3 billion yuan ($4.1 billion) of equities last week via trading links – Bloomberg, and HangSeng Tech Index slumping nearly 6% to drop below 3,000 and hit a new record low this morning Markets : Freight rates are almost back to square one (chart/thread) Food prices truly peaked too (chart-thread) Housing markets has followed rates across the globe, with the obvious country well ahead of others.. China Home Prices Fall for 13th Month as Property Woes Persist-BBG Eq vol positioning : Once again, the crowd is short via delta 1 products. This trend has been going on for some time. This is part of the reason SKEW index has continued to decline as people do not buy downside protection. Instead, they have been "forced" to cover the possible upside risks via buying calls. First chart showing GS PB long/short ratio vs SPX open interest (calls). Second shows the crashed SKEW index.. Global Equity Market Cap has declined by -$30 Trillion Dollars YTD. This is the largest global equity market cap loss on record (full year 2008 lost -$28 Trillion in market cap), busiest earnings week ahead! SPX500 hit a 3800 on open overnight (sliding back down a little on HSI and Chinese stocks lower Note the White House failed to convinced OPEC+ to cut, the WH was making some noise about the real economy and the FED lately, it is possible they manage to convince a few members to ‘’ease off’’ ahead of Mid Terms on 8th Nov https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-e2-80-99s-daly-wants-to-start-talking-about-e2-80-98step-down-e2-80-99-in-super-sized-pace-of-interest-rate-hikes/ar-AA13ezan Fed’s Daly wants to start talking about ‘step down’ in super-sized pace of interest-rate hikes https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-shift-quantitative-tightening-tinkering-161938964.html A Fed shift from quantitative tightening to 'tinkering' will emerge as a new bull factor for the stock market in 2023, Bank of America says https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63358627 Hu Jintao: The mysterious exit of China's former leader from party congress https://twitter.com/ProfYangZhang/status/1583788208894414849 What we just saw was the making of an All Xi's Men team, the breaking of decade-long rules, and the birth of an unlimited supreme leader. These are not entirely surprising, but Xi's grab of power is still beyond our expectation. He is now a truly modern emperor https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Currencies/Japan-stages-new-forex-intervention-to-stop-falling-yen Japan stages new forex intervention to stop falling yen https://twitter.com/FerroTV/status/1583414432310636545“inflation + budget deficits = higher rates...335 rate hikes past 2 years (record 35 in Sept’22)... collapse in stock of global negatively yielding debt to $1.4tn ($18.4tn peak 2 years ago)” – good thread https://twitter.com/MichaelKantro/status/1583594557438300163The Fed has always cut BEFORE core CPI peaks. Why? Because core inflation is so lagging that something often breaks before it rolls over >>>> something was breaking lately.... UK Gilts, USD, parts of Eq, some Pension Funds going bust etc etc https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buckle-brutal-free-fall-home-090000513.html Buckle in for a brutal free-fall in home prices and US housing is in a massive bubble, experts say. Here's how bad Jeremy Siegel, Paul Krugman and 5 others think it could get. https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/housing-market-downturn-long-way-to-go-wells-fargo-forcast-home-prices-2023-2024/?utm_campaign=fortunemagazine&utm_source=twitter.com&xid=soc_socialflow_twitter_FORTUNE&utm_medium=social When to expect the housing market downturn to conclude, according to Wells Fargo https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1583563108152266752 Freight rates are almost back to square one (chart) https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1584220434446237697 SPX | After $13 Trillion Stock Crash, Signs of a Turn Are Now Mounting - Bloomberg *Link: https://bloom.bg/3VRdMGr https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/investor-capitulation-yet-to-show-up-in-equity-flows-bank-of-america-122102101494_1.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1666378584 Investor capitulation yet to show up in equity flows: Bank of America https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1584278508062224384 The only certainty for European natural gas prices going forward is volatility, volatility and more volatility. Here is why... Russia's Shoigu holds second call with U.S. defense secretary in three days http://reut.rs/3z7BOmV https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63357393 Ukraine war: Massive Russian strikes target energy grid – Zelensky Thousands in new Moldova anti-government protest http://reut.rs/3F8wdjO https://www.indy100.com/politics/boris-johnson-running-reactions?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1666552388 – some great stuff in there - Boris Johnson ‘clearly running’ for PM according to Rees-Mogg - the best memes and reactions! https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/22/jeremy-hunts-halloween-budget-could-hit-high-earners-20bn-tax/ Jeremy Hunt’s Halloween budget could hit high earners with £20bn of tax rises Richest to bear the brunt of the increases as Chancellor tries to plug £40bn black hole in the nation’s finances https://apnews.com/article/xi-jinping-china-beijing-government-and-politics-21fa1812435b563f2532effb4fe5758e China’s Xi expands powers, promotes allies 'Elon, The Everywhere' — Elon Musk is worrying government officials with his growing presence in global affairs, report says https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-foreign-presidents-prime-ministers-washington-report-2022-10?r=US&IR=T https://www.adidas-group.com/en/media/news-archive/press-releases/2022/adidas-reports-preliminary-q3-results-and-adjusts-full-year-guid/ ADIDAS REPORTS PRELIMINARY Q3 RESULTS AND ADJUSTS FULL YEAR GUIDANCE lower, like many others Nike etc Credit Suisse chief compliance officer set to leave - Bloomberg News http://reut.rs/3slWBPw https://www.finews.asia/finance/37882-cs-bad-bank-create-trust?utm_source=newsletter_1784&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=finews-asia-newsletter-24-10-2022 «Breaking Bad» Credit Suisse and The Bad Bank https://citywire.com/ch/news/credit-suisse-sells-remaining-stake-in-zurich-asset-manager/a2400589?re=102418&refea=1898423 CS selling non core assets, as they should (have done long ago..but at least they do now) https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/prioritising-italy-inc-is-meloni-s-plan-as-new-prime-minister ROME – Ms Giorgia Meloni plans to uphold Italy’s pro-Ukraine and pro-Nato stance, but her government is set to shift internal policy to provide a greater shield for the country’s companies and industry. Hang Seng – astonishing wealth destruction

UST yields above 2008 highs, mortgage demand on 25y lows, house prices falling at fastest rate since 2002, inflation about 9/10pct for the whole of the year, GBP going be negative for -2- straight quarters – all recessions like facts Dutch Central Bank urges pension funds to guard against UK-style crisis-FT "Downing St on Tuesday confirmed the triple lock was no longer guaranteed, sparking criticism and hostile headlines. But in a sign of how Truss is being forced to govern from hour-to-hour, on Wednesday morning she told Hunt the triple lock must stay" Real estate investors circle as property funds offload offices and warehouses. There is a gap between buyers and sellers on what constitutes fair value-FT Rabobank on Biden's latest SPR drain: "The administration also claims this action should be a signal for the domestic energy industry to ramp up output, despite it implying the opposite." German CPI likely to rise with PPI at 45%..highest since...a very very long time, 1949 I believe UK politics, it’s happening so fast, no point talking too much about it ! USDCNH hit a 7.28 overnight – recovered a little bit on this : Chinese officials are debating whether to reduce the amount of time people coming into the country must spend in mandatory quarantine, according to people familiar with the discussions After U.K. Market Blowout, American Officials Ask: Could It Happen Here? – NYT - "Multiple officials said this week that they expected the #Fed would step in to buy bonds" The aggregate flows of 100 biggest US-listed equity ETFs over the past 60 days are firmly positive, while according to EPFR Global data, stock funds have attracted $169 billion in assets since the start of the year, led by ETFs while mutual funds saw redemptions – Bloomberg The Bank of England is set to respond to changes in Britain's tax and spending policies under Prime Minister Liz Truss but it remains to be seen if interest rates go up as much as investors have been expecting, Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said Uniper - Gashändler Uniper könnte bis zu 40 Milliarden Euro zusätzlich brauchen, another 40bn going Markets : 10year U.S real rates jumping to about 1.7%, highest since 2009 credit crisis time, bond market saying, ‘there is stress in the system, clearly’ (chart-thread ), UK 10-year yields now 23 basis points lower than US 10-year yields Equity markets struggled to extend rally yesterday, amid a sharp rally in UST yields Bonds, long-ends selling off with ease, yields higher pretty much across board, not ideal USD remains firm(er), following yields, consensus view by now, very valid though till whenever Fed official say pause on rates. USDJPY 150, USDCNH 7.24, USDCHF might even be breaking up too UST’s dictate what equity markets do (and USD follows) JGB’s going to break soon, although I could have said this a long while back, but with long-ends all higher in yields terms it’s really hard to think this 25bp lid holds much longer, unless of course JPN wants its currency to crash further and push PPI for ever higher >>> IMHO it’s not a matter of if, but when it happens..so do watch out JGB’s and JPY... Credit markets flash warnings as rates soar – Axios Link: https://bit.ly/3gnB861 Names like Primark and H&M are already popular with U.S. consumers because of their low prices. Now, brands like GU - who offers $30 sweaters and $60 coats - are also trying to use inflation to their advantage and drop into the U.S. market, according to the Wall Street Journal. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-value-retailers-set-sights-us-consumers-are-desperate-lower-prices Goldman is not jumping on the bounce train. Goldman's asset allocation strategists have the following things to say this morning: 1. remain defensive in our asset allocation into year-end. Remain UW equities for 3m horizon 2. "While sentiment and positioning is somewhat bearish we do not think we are at peak bearishness. Sentiment can stay bearish for a long time during bear market - a combination of extreme bearish sentiment, positioning and valuations provide a stronger bullish signal..." 3. "We think equity drawdown risk remains elevated into next year....." https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/spring-loaded-volatility-pent-up-by-150-in-usdjpy/ Today we look at rising US treasury yields continuing to drive brutal headwinds for risk assets, even if the price action in equity markets was fairly sedate. Meanwhile, the currency situation is extremely spring-loaded around the 150.00 level in USDJPY, which traders are eyeing with concern on the risk of enormous volatility should we trade above that level - which US yields adding energy to upside pressure in the background. Today features Technical Strategist and chartist Kim Cramer Larsson, who takes us through the technical situation in US equities, the US 10-year treasury yield, USDJPY and more. John J. Hardy hosts. And some nice charts here https://s356.podbean.com/pb/77461396923a615efa0be5a0b66a8bde/63510eef/data1/fs56/5709963/uploads/2022_10_20_MarketCall_Slides.pdf?pbss=735e5424-6a1e-5d83-a62e-4aefe2150429 Long-term USDJPY, QQQ etc Swiss gold exports to China and India rise as prices fall http://reut.rs/3SchG9D Inside £9 billion Battersea Power Station renovation http://dlvr.it/SbPXcD Uniswap up following strong seeding round, while Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading sideways http://dlvr.it/SbPXY3 https://www.politico.eu/article/german-audit-court-slams-scholz-200-billion-gas-price-cap-debt/ German audit court slams Scholz’s €200B gas price cap If you think UK’s budget in unfunded, then what is this...yet no-one seems to ‘comment too much in the media’’ https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/energie/energiekrise-gashaendler-uniper-koennte-bis-zu-40-milliarden-euro-zusaetzlich-brauchen/28753224.html Gashändler Uniper könnte bis zu 40 Milliarden Euro zusätzlich brauchen https://twitter.com/i/events/1583027380054024198 could be getting yet more news today then! https://twitter.com/ValerieTytel/status/1582973176492933125 BOJ YCC break is a possibility you can’t ignore. JPY swap market reflects the desperation for a hedge. 10y swaps trade 30bps above the BOJ’s 25bp bond yield target - just as stretched as in mid June when US yields last topped https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/japanese-yen-hits-150-against-the-us-dollar.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar Japanese yen hits 150 against the U.S. dollar, weakest levels not seen since August 1990 https://www.macrodesiac.com/are-dutch-pension-funds-safe-or-next-to-fall/ Risk to the EU’s largest pension market is deemed manageable for now https://twitter.com/davidbelle_/status/1582715705132470275?s=20 Pension funds have been urged to review their liquidity by the Dutch Central Bank!.. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/20/liz-truss-news-resign-pm-conservative-party-general-election/ what a circus UK politics are, lost for words, these people are all party before politics, doing so much damage to folks, they should be sent away The comparison to Italy is inescapable. Britain is hobbled by political instability, low growth and subordination to the bond markets. Welcome to Britaly https://econ.st/3gjCoqX https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/20/liz-truss-news-resign-pm-conservative-party-general-election/ “US has just 106 million barrels of diesel stockpiles. Last time inventories were that low in mid-October was in 1951. Inventories should be 30% higher this time of the year.” Fed have another wave of energy-led inflation coming? https://bloomberg.com/opinion/art NO, NO...! https://news.sky.com/story/uk-nuclear-warhead-maintenance-staff-to-vote-on-strikes-12724534 UK nuclear warhead maintenance staff to vote on strikes https://www.ft.com/content/08908266-cc47-4cda-b8d4-97a8ac433a6d Quantifying Britain’s moron risk premium https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/weed-is-coming-to-circle-k-gas-stations-in-us-next-year/ar-AA138CiK Weed Is Coming to Circle K Gas Stations in US Next Year https://www.ft.com/content/ddc13833-4724-447b-91f5-740b50c6c157 Real estate investors circle as property funds offload offices and warehouses There is a gap between buyers and sellers on what constitutes fair value https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1582822534986498048 U.S real yields chart https://www.finews.asia/finance/37861-cs-price-meme-stock-reddit-twitter The Meme Crowd Takes on Credit Suisse https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1583004519721336833 Peston : Talking to member of the cabinet last night, it’s clear there is a collective will among ministers to try to keep Liz Truss in office till 31 October, so that the chancellor can determine which further taxes need to rise and what spending should be cut in that de facto budget,… https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/netflix-to-start-charging-extra-monthly-fee-for-sharing-account-passwords/ar-AA13b2Hk Netflix has vowed to start cracking down on password-sharers who let others log in to their account.

EZ NatGas prices pushed lower still/again ahead of EU measures to be presented today, it's down over 65% from the highs in the summer...this should help eventually Germany extends lifetime of all -3- remaining nuclear plant, France's EFD delays maintenance on France's nuclear reactors UK Chancellor reserved half of tax cuts in mini-budget and says energy bills support scheme to be scaled back, added ''I'm not against the principle of taxing profits that are genuine windfalls, nothing is off the table'' BoE set to further delay QT until Gilt markets calm down-FT, although 'denied' by a BoE source this morning U.S October Empire state factory index falls to -9.1 (estimates -4,3).....first of the October numbers is weaker IMF meetings point to increased risks of possible serious financial stability, accompanying the recession created by the FED hawkishness!.. that is putting pressure on world asset markets, pressure mounting! (thread below) Macro too, sends message to ECB, same as IMF above, WH to Fed yesterday... Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson turns tactically bullish. Sees another oversold relief rally similar to the one in the summer Credit Suisse : full 'global' re-organisation, asset sales finally happening, should be 'welcome' JPY : FM Susuki warned on Tue that JPN would take appropriate & decisive action against excessive, speculator driven currency moves, keeping alive possibility of more market interventions (they need FOMC to peak-BoJ hike!), Kurodo similar Kyiv : kamikase drones killing civilians Markets : SPX500 - 3500/3600 area of support is clearly huge, hence many calling for more downside risk towards 3200 area (huge PUTS buyers lately).. (see chart below) and on top side 3950/4000 resistance still GBP 'anything' has been selling off since mid to late August in anticipation of Truss Govt coming in...Room to correct higher in UK anything, 1.15 area Cable big resistance for now though. UK long-end yields down about 30-40bps Bond market liquidity remains a huge issue going forward and must be monitored (incl. U.S), can be measured via 'average yield errors at highest since GFC', essentially QT in UK and U.S increasing volatility, main driver USDJPY remains near 32year highs, GBP needs to go 1.15+ to get exiting for the bulls (let's not forget the road ahead in UK won't be straight forward). EURO probably remains a sell on rallies for now (strikes, energy bills etc) Equity markets in recovery mode, UK steadying the ship helped, remember there has been a HUGE amount of equity Put buyers in recent 2-3weeks, pretty consensus view! ..Vols softening/markets short-covering.. GOLD positioning (managed-money net long-futures) lowest since 2019 >>> if/when U.S data shows signs of weakness and signs of 'peak FOMC' starts to materialize, UST2y, USD and Gold should the first to move-correct Buybacks : peak blackout was last Friday, by late October they should/can be back in full force Big picture we continue to look for signs of weaker U.S data and possible softer turn from FOMC thereafter, market should/could react quickly, peak USD (interventions elsewhere),peak UST2y yields', particularly given what's priced in already Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says US Stocks Can Rally in Short Term (yahoo.com) EXCLUSIF. Emmanuel Macron : « Il faut une politique massive pour réindustrialiser l'Europe » | Les Echos Liz Truss's government is living hour by hour - BBC News Massive fiscal U-turn leaves UK in political funk – Breakingviews markets should calm down, but quite hard to see where the government is going to cut on spending to balance the books.. George Magnus on Twitter: "This was surely a Battle of the Bulge mission, a last stand to rally allies and deflect immediacy of being ousted. But… fate sealed. I'll lead Tories into next election, says embattled Liz Truss - BBC News https://t.co/2tPhd50pnL" / Twitter Double Down News on Twitter: "Peter Oborne Absolutely Demolishes Liz Truss 🔥 @obornetweets https://t.co/oH5Ucj6c0H" / Twitter worth a watch BoE set to further delay quantitative tightening until gilt markets calm | Financial Times (ft.com) Ukraine latest news: Drone attacks are proof Russia 'has no chance on the battlefield', says Zelenskyy – as shelling continues overnight | World News | Sky News Kathy Jones on Twitter: "Consumers are still spending, but manufacturers are not optimistic. NY Empire business survey 6 mo ahead business conditions fall to second lowest since 2009. https://t.co/XTU0zEZA0s" / Twitter The Case for Energy Optimism - by Alex Turnbull (substack.com) Credit Suisse legal tab is wildcard for investors – Breakingviews Credit Suisse's Investment Bank Chief Poised To Depart: Report (yahoo.com) re-org and pretty much shut down IB globally...is (still) what is required to give it a chance! Credit Suisse Weighs US Asset-Management Sale, Investment Bank Chief to Exit - SWI swissinfo.ch 4 October 2022 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA pretty 'balanced' - they've done what was required and probably 'watching' economic impact now for a while Japan repeats warnings on yen as market watches for intervention | Reuters doing QE in Japan still, FED hiking is hard to see how they could possibly get stronger JPY.. Japan should hike and/or also hopes FOMC peaks soon Kuroda actually added '''few of the people I met in Washington were thinking that USD strength would last long'' Ark's Cathie Wood Continues to Stumble - TheStreet though, as stated yesterday, it's 80pct down, which is about the same than the Nasdaq did between 2000/2002 Germany extends lifetime of all 3 remaining nuclear plants (msn.com) Vitor Constâncio on Twitter: "The aftermath of the IMF meetings points to increased risks of possible serious financial instability, accompanying the recession created by the FED hawkishness that is putting pressure on world asset markets, from stocks to bonds to housing and commodities.1/ https://t.co/oIjphsJ6vc" / Twitter SaxoCIO on Twitter: "4.0% has been my 10Y US Gov target since early 2021...now reached. Still don't see FED "pivot the pivot", but credit and short-term LIQUIDITY is starting to look nasty... 8th or 9th inning presently? https://t.co/2tNmqfXcjU" / Twitter SPX500

UK markets , Gilts and more. What was the real reason for the Bank of England's gilt market intervention? After last night’s headline from Bailey, earlier this morning in FT : Bank of England signals to lenders it is prepared to prolong bond purchases. Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up >> maybe what Bailey thinks he is doing, and FT is about what he has to do… They are there to actually step-in if/when markets are disruptive, he can’t and shouldn’t say much more than this in this situation… Net net, it shows how Bailey is uncomfortable to buy Gilts under the ‘’financial stability’’ button, while trying to tighten monetary policy with inflation at 10pct…Almost an impossible mission, and all this due to the silly QE for years AND failing to hike much earlier when it was all pretty clear that inflation was popping its head back! .The reason, this UK scenario is interesting for all CB’s, is that it can easily happen elsewhere eventually (already has in parts) U.S : Used Vehicle Index has gone negative for first time since May 2020 Uber, Lyft shares sink after Labor Department issues proposal on gig workers (not what majority of Uber drivers voted for 2y ago) U.S CPI : IMHO, it is clearly going to take more than this week’s print or even more than 2months worth of data to shift most of the Fed’s view overall, but evidence keeps accumulating that ‘worst’ is very most likely behind us (from housing in particular, services, crude ish (crude back down to pre OPEC+ cut levels the other day and other commodities , 2-5y fwd inflation expectations much lower overall, IMG downgrades on growth, retail inventory glut etc etc…)… so definitely some pretty decent signs of softness out there JGB’s trading – or lack off ‘’JPN’s 10y government bonds did not trade for 3rd day in a row’’ Countering Brainard previous day, yesterday Fed’s Mester said : I do not expect the Fed to lower rates in 2023, Size of Fed rate hikes will depend on economic conditions, I anticipate slow growth in the coming years, The biggest risk is that the Fed does not raise interest rates dufficiently, The economy's biggest challenge continues to be high and persistent inflation, The Fed has made no progress on lowering inflation.. >>>> a reminder that most of them 12months ago said, there will be no rate hikes in 2022…(a transition might be round-the-corner but they won’t flip till it's too late…) Saudi Arabia Defied US Warnings Ahead Of OPEC+ Production Cut – WSJ… U.S. Officials Asked Saudi Arabia to Delay OPEC+ Production Cut for a Month RBA Assistant Governor Luci Ellis gave a speech this morning detailing the RBA's thinking around the neutral cash rate, which it estimates to be around 2.50%. With the cash rate at 2.60% following the October 25bp hike, the RBA is therefore right near neutral according to Ellis, which was a large part of the reason for the central bank reducing the pace of its rate hikes from 50bp to 25bp. Ellis reinforced the message that the RBA is going to be a bit more cautious with its rate hikes going forward given the cash rate will be moving into restrictive territory. The IMF cut its 2023 global economic forecast. Growth is projected to slow to 2.7% as the war in Ukraine, inflation, and covid recovery weigh on the global economy. IMF criticises Kwasi Kwarteng again saying govt’s tax cuts and energy support package has made the Bank of England’s battle against inflation more difficult Bank of Korea hiked 50bps to 3% Retail Inventory glut is about to get ugly/Forbes "Flows suggest investors believe market may have bottomed: client flows into US equities last week were 3rd-largest since '08... Our view? More volatility likely ahead." - BofA Markets : USDJPY 146+ to some 24ywar lows, BoJ ‘intervened’ near 145 last month – Hard to fight on your own against the mighty USD while Fed is in hiking mode, FOMC minutes becoming always ever so important, and with G20 coming up in mid-November – long way away in these markets. Another mini run on GBP and it is really getting into cheap long-term levels, doesn’t look that way right now, but it never does in the short-term storm. The USDollar is too strong overall and is clearly starting to kill growth in the rest of the world 1 to 2 year time deposit also getting really attractive for small investors, when you start getting into the 5pct 2y fix deposit, this isn’t bad (UK) SPX500 trading around those 200dma levels 3590 area, perhaps a make or break with FOMC minutes and U.S CPI tomorrow. Risk sentiment all very low/oversold and that might be the good news together with BofA comment above, earnings reports kicking off properly now too The big issue with CB’s these days, not just UK, is that it’s run mostly by folks with little or NO long-term market experience, at the most important time in history (probably), since they themselves created this monster with the 25trn of QE the last 10+ years, ignoring that rate hikes were needed no later than 9-12months ago, that basically inflation was temporary and there were no need for hikes in 2022…And the Fed proceeded with the fastest and sharpest hiking cycle in the pace of 6months, ever…will they be wrong again by hiking too much now ? Saxo/Steen and Co >>> ''start'' to consider/look for signs of peak inflation/peak FOMC/peak rates over next few months, USD is killing growth in RoW, clear signs of slow down economically, consumers retrenching etc, risk FED does too much now https://www.coppolacomment.com/2022/09/what-was-real-reason-for-bank-of.html What was the real reason for the Bank of England's gilt market intervention? https://www.ft.com/content/87a5b7bf-6786-427f-89d6-96b736dcb814 Bank of England signals to lenders it is prepared to prolong bond purchases Officials have privately indicated flexible approach if market volatility flares up >>> many UK pension funds feel BoE intervention in the domestic bond market should be extended to Oct 31 ''and possibly beyond'', said the UK Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA) With yields on UK inflation-linked debt having risen by some 64 bps in just one day yesterday - the sharpest spike seen since 1992 - bond investors must be wondering what on earth is going on. Are the UK's problems isolated events? Not likely. http://spkl.io/60134nbMt https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1580100932724875265 Rees-Mogg claims that the market turbulence of past fortnight has nothing to do with the Govt. "It's much more to do with interest rates than it is do with a minor part of fiscal policy"….of course he does… mind boggling https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1579432118446624768 Year/year % change for Used Vehicle Index has gone negative for first time since May 2020 – chart https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/11/uber-lyft-shares-sink-after-labor-department-issues-proposal-on-gig-workers.html Uber, Lyft shares sink after Labor Department issues proposal on gig workers https://twitter.com/BondHack/status/1579780468102541313 If all the Credit Suisse CDS tourists want to see an actually gnarly chart: here's French grocer Casino's five-year CDS going/gone to the moon https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-inflation-health-economy-international-monetary-fund-79b2ba468054025b28a8ab28ac676734 IMF dims outlook for 2023 global economy amid Ukraine war Zelensky called on G7 countries to speed up supplies of air defence systems and impose price caps on Russian energy exports as his country’s infrastructure and civilian neighbourhoods faced a second day of missile strikes. https://ft.com/content/5de6908c-c097-4a71-965a-66a56b234267 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/11/power-giants-to-face-windfall-tax-after-all-as-liz-truss-delivers-u-turn Power giants to face windfall tax after all as Liz Truss delivers U-turn https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/nasa-asteroid-dart-spacecraft-mission-space-debris-b1031982.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1665515840-2 ‘Watershed moment for humanity’: Nasa hails success of asteroid mission that was test to save planet Nasa says its spacecraft managed to nudge the asteroid out of its natural orbit https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article241531277/Greta-Thunberg-bezeichnet-moegliches-Abschalten-von-AKW-in-Deutschland-als-Fehler.html Greta Thunberg bezeichnet mögliches Abschalten von AKW in Deutschland als Fehler - Greta Thunberg calls the possible shutdown of nuclear power plants in Germany a mistake. Top ! https://www.pv-tech.org/greece-runs-entirely-on-renewables-for-the-first-time-in-its-history/ Greece runs entirely on renewables for the first time in its history https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2022/1011/1328450-new-zealand/ New Zealand outlines plans to tax livestock burps, farts! https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregpetro/2022/10/07/retail-inventory-glut-is-about-to-get-ugly/?sh=3ceb54073d48 Retail Inventory Glut Is About To Get Ugly https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-hat-deutsches-luftabwehrsystem-erhalten-iris-t-a-c3302cf3-1b72-4ab4-9741-6baf379b082c?d=1665498694&sara_ecid=app_upd_903PVrz5TZlGJuLWLqJDVijRko558t&sara_ecid=soci_upd_KsBF0AFjflf0DZCxpPYDCQgO1dEMphUkraine hat deutsches Luftabwehrsystem erhalten https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/all-eyes-on-boe-and-the-uk-gilt-market/ and Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yyo7gp - Today we talk about the continuing weakness in equities with the latest jolt coming from BoE Governor Bailey's comments that UK pension firms must get their house in order by Friday as the central bank is planning to step away from the market. We also cover today's oil market and the expected forecasts from IEA and EIA, the grains markets and finally gold that attempting to bounce back from its recent decline. We also cover stocks to watch which today are Intel, Chr Hanse, and LVMH. Finally, we cover today's earnings release from PepsiCo and the economic calendar with a focus on US PPI figures and FOMC Minutes later tonight

Fed's Lael Brainard says monetary tightening will lower inflation over time. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday reiterated the U.S. central bank's plan to continue tightening monetary policy until there is clear evidence that inflation has slowed down, warning the U.S. economy will likely slow further as a result of elevated interest rates >>> Brainard is an economist, and is thus painting a slightly less hawkish picture than Powell of ‘lets hike and hike more because today’s CPI and NFP are still strong.. Brainard noted that Americans' savings have also dwindled faster than the Fed anticipated, suggesting there could be a pullback in spending soon – she remains definitely more dovish than most FOMC participants GS : 99% of outstanding mortgages have interest below last week’s Freddie Mac survey rate Food & Agri world food prices down again in Sep – that’s fastest 6months move down since GFC BoE : pre-open this morning - The Bank has announced that it will widen the scope of its daily gilt purchase operations also to include purchases of index-linked gilts.[1] This enhancement to our operations will be in effect from 11 October 2022 until 14 October 2022. Index-linked gilts will be purchased via a separate auction each day (1st time ever BoE buys index-linked bonds), in addition to the Bank's existing daily conventional gilt purchase auctions >>> all this, now we also know that UK PM and Chancellor were warned by HIS think tank that they may need fiscal tightening of more than $60bn to stabilise UK’s public finances / Times >>> UK yields ‘dropped’ about 5bp after these measures, not exactly a great vote of confidence, yet anyway. Kwasi Kwarteng will be questioned by the House of Commons at 14:30 UK time, live on BBC Parliament (this is a scheduled session) Jamie Dimon says UK government deserves benefit of the doubt after sparking market turmoil Josep Borell (EU high Rep) : A surging US dollar is making basic goods in other countries unaffordable unless central banks follow the US Federal Reserve’s lead, he explained >>> the reality is ECB should have hike long ago, similarly to BoJ, they are printing still with YCC at 25bps and wondering why JPY is so weak, it is quite extraordinary really.. Bunds on the move too, 10y yields around 2.32 (from 2.22 yesterday), as German government mentioned yesterday to be more open to ‘joint issuance of European bonds’’, though the story was later denied China gives clearest sign yet it will stick with zero-Covid strategy The most powerful buyers in Treasuries are bailing – all at once. From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then of course there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $US60 billion a month, is this not going to impact the USdollar eventually…? US President Joe Biden and G7 leaders will hold a virtual meeting today to discuss their commitments to support Ukraine amid yesterday's series of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, – White House Scholz : ‘’we will discuss inflation reduction act with the U.S, there must be no customs war’’ MS : “.. companies will have to take more significant action on labor--i.e., layoffs. Early warning signs on that front are emerging as evidenced by the recent drop in job offerings” — which leads jobless claims by ~4 months. [Wilson] Markets : UST 10y back to 4% - lots of talk of buyers of Treasuries ‘on strike’ (very heavy hedging price for JPN investors for example..) USD remains strong(er), anyone who thinks ‘G20’ may say or do something, should play it via options. As long as other CB are not hiking and/or Fed tells everyone they ‘nearly’ done at least..it is going to be hard to turn Equity markets, main indexes struggling on higher yields, bond market dislocation, these markets though also offer opportunities in many names, which are big solid cash flow generators, as markets (ETF’s) selling doesn’t discriminate between solid and weak balance-sheet, yet anyway Gold should be one of the early movers, if/when market sense an issue with UST volatility and thus USDollar Maybe a relatively weak earnings season (expected) with (pretty sure they will) large U.S companies blaming USD strength (amongst other things) ‘may’ shift the Fed tone sooner or later ECB’s Lane, BoE’s Cunliffe and RBA’s Ellis due to speak today – amongst other things Economic Calendar (tradingeconomics.com) https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/feds-brainard-warns-higher-interest-rates-will-slow-us-economy Fed's Brainard warns higher interest rates will further slow US economy Brainard: Interest rates will need to remain elevated for 'some time' The economy has already cooled significantly in the U.S., with gross domestic product – the broadest measure of goods and services produced in a nation – contracting by 1.6% in the winter and 0.6% in the spring. Brainard noted that Americans' savings have also dwindled faster than the Fed anticipated, suggesting there could be a pullback in spending soon. Fire sale of UK plc underway: Goldman Sachs and Blackstone plotting to snap up British assets on the cheap as panicky UK pension funds flee http://dlvr.it/SZsqdf https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/back-at-the-brink-do-we-go-over/ Today we look at equity markets back at the cycle lows just ahead of earnings season as treasury yields and a strong US dollar continue to pressure. We also discuss unrealistic earnings expectations for the coming batch of earnings reports, the large banks' massive unrealized losses on bond portfolios that will hamper buyback programs and dividend generosity, the ongoing dicey situation for UK gilts and sterling as sentiment and policymaker credibility continue to struggle, crude oil & gas, FX focus, TSMC's ugly day and more https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-williams-sees-rates-heading-144604966.htmlLast Friday : Williams acknowledged that the Fed’s actions had international consequences and said he was in contact with his counterparts at foreign central banks, who also face high inflation. But he stressed that the Fed’s focus was its domestic goal to restore price stability.“We’re all working on our own to make the decisions to bring the economy back into balance,” he said >>> kind of emphasized that it is our USdollar (U.S) and it is your problem (RoW – rest of the world) >>> of course the right reaction would be for other central banks to hike (or to have hiked a lot sooner..) but in the face of recession, the have been very slow and hesitant to hike, even with inflation near 8pct say (headlines and yes I think we can agree things will moderate soon but still – they have been far too late and that’s partly -not only- reason for current messy situation) https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11298863/House-prices-fall-12-2024as-average-mortgage-rates-reach-6.html House prices could drop 12% by 2024, analysts warn, as average mortgage rates reach 6% and limit what buyers can afford >>> house prices went up 15-20pct last 18months…so there is room for lower and back to pre Covid levels, if that’s so nothing too dramatic.. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500/QSQ07ntB-Short-S-P500-bear-market-starting/ SPX500 chart and 200dma level https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/the-most-powerful-buyers-in-treasuries-are-bailing-all-at-once-20221010-p5boqd The most powerful buyers in Treasuries are bailing – all at once https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield 10y UST yields back to 4% -chart https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/998732-us-rate-hikes-feeding-risk-of-global-recession-borrell US rate hikes feeding risk of global recession: Borrell "Everybody’s running to increase interest rates — these will bring us to a world recession," EU’s top diplomat warns https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/10/we-are-getting-ready-to-deploy-our-recession-playbook-says-legendary-investor-paul-tudor-jones.html?__source=sharebar|email&par=sharebar We are getting ready to deploy our recession playbook, says legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones >>> recession last usually approx. 1year, stocks fall on average 10%, shirt-term rates like 2y UST will fall first to possibly signal FED stops hiking or hikes a lot slower, once the 2yUSt peak, the USDollar peaks https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1579432385073930240/photo/1 chart and more in the thread - Six consecutive monthly declines for global food prices … Food & Agriculture World Food Price Index fell by 1.1% in September and is decisively rolling over https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/jpmorgan-ceo-says-uk-government-deserves-benefit-of-the-doubt.html Jamie Dimon says UK government deserves benefit of the doubt after sparking market turmoil https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-explosions-germany-baltic-sea-9d117262bffdcbd7d49e902f138a71ce Germany opens investigation of Baltic gas pipeline blasts https://uk.news.yahoo.com/berlin-no-plans-support-joint-172719472.html Berlin has no plans to support joint EU debt for loans – source https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3195541/china-gives-clearest-sign-yet-it-will-stick-zero-covid-strategy China gives clearest sign yet it will stick with zero-Covid strategy Public had expected shift away from stringent Covid-19 measures after 20th party congress However, People’s Daily commentary signals leaders are determined to continue pandemic controls after pivotal political meeting this month

NFP was on highs but close to expectations, bond sold-off hard, equity markets responded and gave back nearly all of the big short-covering rally we saw earlier last week, rates were already moving higher with ‘ease’ in the middle of the week, Fed speakers stuck to their guns, US CPI, FOMC minutes and much more this week (see below) Fed minutes "May provide more insight into the central bank’s aggressive efforts to fight inflation. And there’s a key measure of US producer prices is due Wednesday, followed by the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer inflation expectations on Friday."-BBG, on U.S "CPI is forecast to have risen 8.1% in Sep from a year earlier vs. 8.3% in Aug, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Core CPI is projected to rise 6.5% on a year-over-year basis and fall to 0.4% month over month."-BBG >>>> The FED is rising rates at the fastest pace ever into a bubble, on top of it all, they still saying that they want the housing market to crash, having failed to stop QE early enough, and failed to start to hike in 2021 when inflation started to pop its head Global margin call hits European debt markets - Hedges blow up after risk gauges in Germany’s government debt market exceeded those of the 2008 world crash EU gas drops below €150/MWh to a three-month low. Driven by strong LNG arrivals, mild autumn weather and demand destruction. Russia's ability to shock much reduced with flows down 78% YoY., welcome news! UK : The central bank announced on Monday that it would introduce further measures to ensure an “orderly end” to its purchase scheme on Oct. 14. China's services activity falls for first time since May (from 55 to 49.3) PayPal pulls plan to fine customers $2.5K for promoting ‘misinformation’ UKR-RU : The embassies of the EU countries received an evacuation order from Kiev Markets : BUND/BTP spread at 2022 widest levels 257bp, German ‘Pfandbrief’ highest since 2011 too at 3.255, 10y mortgage rate now around 4% Bonds hit hard again last week, 8th negative week in a row for FI.. Gold ‘failed’ to break higher post NFP last Friday USD higher again post NFP, now UKR/RU situation clearly not helping ‘euro’ per say, could eurjpy come under pressure with the added risk of BoJ doing something in USDJPY ? (chart below just to put things in perspective) Crude steadily higher since OPEC+ cut Equity markets hit hard again post NFP with higher rates, duration particularly hit hard, weak start to the week, ahead of FOMC minutes and U.S CPI later on This week we are to going to get : At least 5 Fed speakers lined up already U.S PPI tomorrow FED meeting minutes on Wed Sep U.S CPI on Thursday Retail sales and consumer sentiment survey on Friday Volatile we will have – either way The current situation in markets Higher rates forcing fastest pace of falling prices in housing for 10years Equity markets down, duration hit hardest with higher rates and risk of recession in 2023 Commodities down on ‘risk’ of deflation UST yields almost making/made their move to natural level of 4 to 4.5%?.. https://s357.podbean.com/pb/32d9c078a280ddd674cb49f1e0d9b122/6343d05b/data1/fs56/5709963/uploads/2022_10_10_MarketCall_Slides.pdf?pbss=de4a2363-0c18-5238-a3ee-815269cd71fc and https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/the-unbearable-tightness-getting-us-closer-to-the-peak/ The unbearable tightness getting us closer to peak yields >>> not what many in markets are looking for in markets right now Today we look at an ugly close to last week for equity markets after the market read a mostly uneventful September jobs report as negative for risk sentiment because the unemployment rate dropped back to the cycle low of 3.5%, driving treasury yields back toward the cycle highs and sending the US dollar higher again. Sentiment failed to improve in Asia as the week gets under way, with higher oil prices weighing and amplified by the stronger US dollar, while geopolitical jitters are more uncomfortable than ever. Precious metals, wheat, pondering peak tightness, the important event risks on the economic calendar and more are also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX. https://www.newsweek.com/putin-meet-security-council-after-crimea-bridge-explosion-1750216?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1665389591 Putin to Meet With Security Council After Crimea Bridge Explosion https://twitter.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/1579370314105966592 EU NatGas drops below €150/MWh to a three-month low. Driven by strong LNG arrivals, mild autumn weather and demand destruction. Russia's ability to shock much reduced with flows down 78% YoY. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/bank-of-england-announces-liquidity-measures-to-help-ease-pension-fund-issues.html Bank of England strengthens emergency stimulus to help ease market turmoil https://news.bitcoin.com/visa-partners-with-ftx-to-roll-out-crypto-debit-cards-in-40-countries/ Visa Partners with FTX to Roll Out Crypto Debit Cards in 40 Countries https://nypost.com/2022/10/09/paypal-pulls-plan-to-fine-customers-2-5k-for-promoting-misinformation/ PayPal pulls plan to fine customers $2.5K for promoting ‘misinformation’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-09/gold-is-heading-east-as-a-falling-price-lures-asian-buyers The Gold Market’s Great Migration Sends Bullion Rushing East Western investors are dumping gold in response to rising rates. https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/global-margin-call-hits-european-debt-markets/ Global margin call hits European debt markets Hedges blow up after risk gauges in Germany’s government debt market exceeded those of the 2008 world crash The Government is still "thinking about" an energy-saving campaign, the Work and Pensions minister suggested this morning. Follow the latest on our politics liveblog: https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/10/liz-truss-benefits-news-nicola-sturgeon-tories-kwarteng/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1665390472

GOLD – let’s see how goes after NFP >>>> could HIGHER VOLS and ILLIQUID blond market lead to a break up ion Gold safe heaven ? particularly as we approach 4 to 4.5% in UST which is very most likely going to be the top ? NFP – all about average earnings – any signs of them following JOLTS and markets should ‘like’ it (quite bizarre when markets look for bad data to push Eq higher, we are in one of those moments apparently..) Gold ‘breaking’ up on charts (clearly needs confirmation after NFP..) perhaps with the view UST 10year yields can do/go to 4-4.25 again but that being the top, XAU might be on to something from here OPEC+ move >>> the U.S and others are upset, in many ways, when you try to inflict a price cap on a commodity, the market usually finds a way to make you pay the ‘natural’ price Germany's relief plan could trigger UK-style bond meltdown in Euro nations. German Chancellor Scholz last week announced package worth €200bn designed to help w/soaring energy prices, including gas price brake & a cut in sales tax for fuel Fed must be 'singularly' focused on inflation, Mester says and Fed’s Waller Sees Additional Rate Hikes Into Early Next Year >>> overall message remains : it’s all about inflation Belarus bans consumer price rises in bid to tame inflation >>>> inflation is now illegal.. JPY : Japan’s top currency diplomate Kanda : making various efforts so as not to face a limit to ammunition in FX interventions Treasuries Liquidity Problem Exposes Fed to ‘Biggest Nightmare’. JPMorgan measure of Treasury-market depth continue to plunge >>> the UK’s issue the other day is the tip of the iceberg, and as we said should worry other countries in similar fiscal situation, so not surprising to read Scholz comments below and worries from the likes of JPM Markets : All about wage growth today, the actual number is quite irrelevant Equity markets rallied hard earlier in week (short covering), pausing last couple of days ahead of NFP Rates moved higher with relative ‘ease’ last few days, 10y say is 20bp higher, all petty much across markets, UK similarly etc >>> the main issue remain ‘liquidity’ or lack of, there is NO daily liquidity when mainstream large blocks of trades have to go through USD similar price action, weaker earlier in week, slightly higher last couple of days, awaiting payrolls Gold chart below Crude is up about 15% over last year (in USD terms), nothing dramatic ? maybe not, depending on which currency you look it can be up as much as nearly 50% for importers, such as Japan, and still about 25% in China, or 35% in Korea Electricity/gas prices slowly still heading lower in Europe VIX – a cheap punt, but nonetheless, 50K of the March’2023 150 calls! Traded last few days, at 20cents, in fact the highest strike in there is 180 Germany's relief plan could trigger UK-style bond meltdown in Euro nations. German Chancellor Scholz last week announced package worth €200bn designed to help w/soaring energy prices, including gas price brake & a cut in sales tax for fuel. https://cnb.cx/3ekWK2i https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gasTTF natgas https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-06/energy-crisis-people-in-poland-burn-trash-to-keep-warm-in-coal-shortage?leadSource=uverify%20wallPeople in Poland Are Burning Trash to Stay Warm This Winter Russia’s war in Ukraine has exposed the vulnerability of Europe’s fuel supplies. In Poland, some households are hoarding garbage to replace their coal. https://www.ft.com/content/2ad6558d-57fb-41ad-be0b-477506c48cfa?segmentId=114a04fe-353d-37db-f705-204c9a0a157b Market jitters spur September flight to Treasury ETFs Government bonds including Treasuries accounted for 60 per cent of inflows, up from 20 per cent in August https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2022/october-06-il-chamber-of-commerce Illinois Chamber of Commerce Annual Luncheon President Charles Evans joined the Illinois Chamber of Commerce for a moderated Q&A on the U.S. economy followed by an audience Q&A >>> rates like to peak 4.5% in Q1 2023 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63167922 Samsung warns of 32% hit to profits on chip slump https://www.finews.asia/finance/37792-credit-suisse-announces-debt-repurchase-offers?utm_source=newsletter_1773&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=finews-asia-newsletter-07-10-2022 Credit Suisse Announces Debt Repurchase Offers Amid concerns about its financial health, Switzerland’s most troubled lender has announced offers to repurchase debt securities totalling billions of dollars…..long way to go in reducing debt… https://www.ft.com/content/c85e0afa-fdf4-499c-bb0d-6c106336ef0c Goldman Sachs pursues asset purchases in UK pensions fire sale US bank’s asset management arm targets retirement schemes’ illiquid holdings…“We’re seeing discounts of 20 to 30 per cent for a high quality portfolio [of stakes in private equity funds],” said Gabriel Möllerberg, a managing director at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “It’s absolutely an opportunity.”…of course it is! https://uk.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/belarus-bans-consumer-price-rises-in-bid-to-tame-inflation-2773157 Belarus bans consumer price rises in bid to tame inflation VIX surge to 150 is day’s biggest options bet for ‘fear gauge.’ Trader pays $950,000 for 50,000 options wagering on VIX spike. Bet could be ‘cheap way to hedge’ against a market crash. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-06/vix-surge-to-150-is-day-s-biggest-options-bet-for-fear-gauge?sref=R17xFhjo https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63149957?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=B277D272-4534-11ED-BAEC-A0EA4744363C&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=%40BBCNews&at_medium=custom7 New oil and gas at odds with green goals – report https://www.news18.com/news/business/germany-expects-recession-next-year-as-gas-crisis-bites-report-6114061.html Germany Expects Recession Next Year as Gas Crisis Bites: Report https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-06/us-treasuries-liquidity-problem-exposes-fed-to-biggest-nightmare?sref=ZVajCYcV&leadSource=uverify%20wall Treasuries Liquidity Problem Exposes Fed to ‘Biggest Nightmare’ JPMorgan measure of Treasury-market depth continue to plunge - Bloomberg’s gauge of how far yields are from fair value rising Jan. 6 panel to hold rescheduled hearing next Thursday https://trib.al/ZoAj6sZ https://www.indy100.com/politics/nadhim-zahawi-question-time-putin?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1665126896 Nadhim Zahawi laughed at for blaming Tories budget fiasco on Putin

PVM discusses "Growth vs Value", Single Stocks and our systematic approach to finding deep sustainable long term Value for our Client Portfolios.

In this interview with Bloomberg TV, PVM discusses our thoughts on Global Macroeconomics and how it drives our quest to build investment portfolios for our Clients with Better Metrics. We also discuss our latest single stock investments.